Triumph Group, Inc. (NYSE:TGI)

CAPS Rating: 5 out of 5

The Company through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, engineering, manufacture, repair, overhaul, and distribution of aircraft components.

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Member Avatar AnsgarJohn (99.09) Submitted: 8/29/2014 11:43:28 AM : Outperform Start Price: $69.45 TGI Score: -7.43

Validea Graham Defensive screen http://www.gurufocus.com/stock/TGI

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Member Avatar TMFDeej (99.28) Submitted: 5/20/2014 1:40:17 PM : Outperform Start Price: $67.14 TGI Score: -11.37

Alex Roepers of Atlantic Asset Management is now involved with Triumph. If he can get them to fix their recent issues, the stock could trade in line with multiples of similar companies and hit $95.

Jason

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Member Avatar jdbow (54.02) Submitted: 4/17/2014 6:54:16 PM : Outperform Start Price: $64.52 TGI Score: -7.96

This aircraft parts and service company hit a bump when it's largest
customer, Boeing, hit a bump. Revenues are down & inventories are up.
It is a well run company that will still have Boeing when it gears
back up and is growing it's base of other customers.

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Member Avatar CellBlock9 (92.57) Submitted: 3/6/2014 9:55:52 PM : Outperform Start Price: $65.76 TGI Score: -8.46

S & P 5 star, 65.41

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Member Avatar ROEoutshinesGOLD (99.20) Submitted: 7/17/2013 5:33:17 PM : Outperform Start Price: $72.35 TGI Score: -35.01

S&P 5***** STAR

Given favorable prospects we see for the commercial aerospace market and our view of valuations, we consider TGI shares highly attractive. TGI acquired Vought Aircraft Industries in June 2010, transforming it into a Tier 1 player in the commercial and military aerostructures market. We believe that TGI is on track to hit its $50 million annual Vought synergy target by June 2013 as well as its overall $8.25 EPS target in FY 16. The recently closed Engine Controls acquisition helps diversify the portfolio by significantly bulking up TGI's proprietary components business, and should generate a consistent high-margin aftermarket revenue stream.

For FY 14 (Mar.), we project a 6% increase in sales, all driven by acquisitions, as production rate increases on B777, B737 and B787 aircraft are offset by weakness in military business and announced slowdowns on the B747 and B767 production lines. We expect Aerostructures sales to be down 1% and Aerospace Systems sales to be up 44% (5% organically) due to the recent Goodrich Engine Controls and Embee acquisitions. We look for Aftermarket Services sales to be flat (up 7% organically) after the recent sale of two units driven by increased flight hours and share gains. For FY 15, we expect sales to increase 6%.

We estimate operating margins of 14.9% in FY 14, up from 14.3% in FY 13, as Vought-related synergies and continued efficiency improvement are somewhat offset by the impact of the Jefferson Street facility closure and the recent acquisitions.

For FY 15, we project significant operating margin expansion to 17.0%, driven by volume increases, benefits from recent acquisitions and the lack of significant Jefferson Street facility closure expenses.

We estimate operating EPS of $6.80 in FY 14 and $7.50 in FY 15.

Our 12-month target price of $90 is based on a 12X multiple of our FY 15 EPS estimate, which is nearly in line with the 10-year historical average multiple of 12.4X. We believe a near historical average multiple is appropriate, given our view of a balance of risks and opportunities.

Risks to our recommendation and target price include the possibility of a slowdown in the global economy and in demand for air travel, significant U.S. defense budget risk to military programs, and acquisition integration, operational and other difficulties at TGI.

Fair Value Calculation: $105.60
(Analysis of the stock's current worth, based on S&P's proprietary quantitative model suggests that TGI is Undervalued by $22.84 or 27.6%.)

Insider Activity: FAVORABLE

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Member Avatar paek813 (99.61) Submitted: 1/2/2013 2:06:18 PM : Outperform Start Price: $66.96 TGI Score: -41.86

S&P: Search Criteria:

S&P STARS Ranking: = 5 stars (5 is the highest rank out of 5)
+
S&P Fair Value Ranking: = 5 (5 = undervalued, 1 = overvalued)

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Member Avatar slantedwindows (< 20) Submitted: 11/28/2012 9:06:15 PM : Outperform Start Price: $64.28 TGI Score: -40.86

nothing but steady increases for the past few years. i don't see any reason this will change.

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Member Avatar valunvesthere (< 20) Submitted: 11/8/2010 2:37:33 AM : Outperform Start Price: $44.18 TGI Score: -18.39

Profile
Triumph Group, Inc.
1550 Liberty Ridge Drive
Suite 100
Wayne, PA 19087
United States - Map
Phone: 610-251-1000
Fax: 610-251-1555
Website: www.triumphgroup.com

Details
Index Membership: S&P 600 SmallCap
S&P 1500 Super Comp
Sector: Industrial Goods
Industry: Aerospace/Defense Products & Services
Full Time Employees: 5,991

Business Summary
Triumph Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, engineering, manufacture, repair, overhaul, and distribution of aircraft components in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Aerospace Systems and Aftermarket Services. The Aerospace Systems segment provides mechanical and electromechanical controls, such as hydraulic systems and components, main engine gearbox assemblies, and accumulators and mechanical control cables. It also involves in stretch forming, die forming, milling, bonding, machining, welding, and assembling and fabricating various structural components used in aircraft wings, fuselages, and other assemblies. In addition, this segment provides composite assemblies for floor panels, environmental control system ducts, and non-structural cockpit components. The Aftermarket Services segment provides maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for commercial and military markets. This segment offers its services on auxiliary power units, and air frame and engine accessories, including constant-speed drives, cabin compressors, starters and generators, and pneumatic drive units; and on thrust reversers, nacelle components, and flight control surfaces, as well as supplies spare parts of cockpit instruments and gauges for a range of commercial airlines. The company serves the aerospace industry, including original equipment manufacturers of commercial, regional, business, and military aircraft and components, as well as commercial airlines and air cargo carriers. Triumph Group, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is based in Wayne, Pennsylvania.

***All above information from YAHOO FINANCE***

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Member Avatar phyrne (< 20) Submitted: 9/8/2010 6:00:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $36.06 TGI Score: -1.58

insider buys

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Member Avatar GLK2009 (< 20) Submitted: 4/8/2009 11:36:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $19.62 TGI Score: +78.70

outperforms industry and S&P500,above 50day MA, grow trend

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Member Avatar kevinottofro (98.11) Submitted: 10/23/2008 9:18:17 AM : Outperform Start Price: $16.86 TGI Score: +151.60

Bottom Fishing on 10/23 - looks like a value buy.

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Member Avatar smartSheep (99.85) Submitted: 9/7/2008 3:13:19 PM : Outperform Start Price: $28.24 TGI Score: +64.98

Small company with outstanding recent growth and low peg. Defense will continue to be funded no matter who wins '08.

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Member Avatar cfackler (95.50) Submitted: 8/9/2008 2:26:20 PM : Outperform Start Price: $27.62 TGI Score: +71.73

I like this one up through $75.50.

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Member Avatar NotJesseL (32.94) Submitted: 7/9/2008 4:19:06 PM : Outperform Start Price: $20.90 TGI Score: +139.18

Good PE, good growth, good asset value (share is 1.06 times book). Sentiment negative, but this is a small company so good execution is more important.

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Member Avatar Long1CPA (46.85) Submitted: 7/1/2008 11:39:47 AM : Outperform Start Price: $22.94 TGI Score: +116.03

Someone can tell me if my macro-economic thinking is off here, but I see TGI as a strong buy below 50. Here's why: TGI has been sold off pretty much in line with the rest of the aerospace and defence sector. My contrarian point of view is that the higher gas prices go, the better it will be for TGI's earnings. As prices rise more and more airlines are begining to outsource repair and maintenance. Additionally, as prices rise airlines stop buying planes (See BA). While 30% of TGI's commercial repair business comes from Boeing this is not on NEW planes. Airlines fleets will be aging (specifically the workhorse 737s) and needing increased repairs. As airlines merge they will look to simplify operations and cut costs. My guess is they will start cutitng r&M departments. TGI also has some government contracts which will be used to 'smooth earnings' and meet estimates if the company so desires. If there is a better way to play the aerospace R&M sector please let me know.

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Member Avatar jyoung12387 (73.92) Submitted: 6/11/2008 3:22:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $25.39 TGI Score: +97.19

I am very bullish on this company, which is trading at a P/E of 13.5 and a PEG of around 0.70. TGI benefits from the huge backlog that Boeing and Airbus have (which are both over six years of sales). I like that TGI has diversified by having their Aftermarket Segment contribute 20% to their total revenue. They have also continued to acquire companies, which further diversifies them. Their margins are better than their peers, and they continue to improve. TGI may suffer because of the sentiment in the airline industry (rising fuel prices, airlines grounding planes), but these do not have an immediate effect on the company's performance. TGI will actually benefit from the airlines upgrading to more fuel efficient planes, which will be a key to their survival. TGI has itself a large backlog and as long as Boeing and Airbus have orders to fill, TGI's earnings are visable.

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Member Avatar amg11901 (21.16) Submitted: 2/13/2008 2:43:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $28.93 TGI Score: +67.83

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/index.jsp?epi-content=GENERIC&newsId=20080213005818&ndmHsc=v2*A1200315600000*B1202960271000*DgroupByDate*J2*M31351*N1009172&newsLang=en&beanID=383539599&viewID=news_view

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Member Avatar SESAMEnow (96.91) Submitted: 12/29/2007 6:34:20 PM : Outperform Start Price: $40.62 TGI Score: +15.76

Looks like a good investiment appears to be undervalued in current market.

Disclosure: I own no shares of this stock.

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Member Avatar Haventaclue1 (84.93) Submitted: 9/26/2007 9:08:46 AM : Outperform Start Price: $40.55 TGI Score: +20.08

Growing income for past few years and in a position to reap benefits from aging fleet of planes worldwide, this should be a hit for years to come. Popularity of Boeings new 787 and new Airbus model just add fuel to the fire.

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Member Avatar stockguy07 (< 20) Submitted: 9/21/2007 12:22:43 AM : Outperform Start Price: $40.72 TGI Score: +19.81

IBD New America

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