Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:THLD)

Baker brothers increased their holding.

I plan to hold this caps pick through the clinical trials. Br vs Cl in a clinical compound matters, but probably not as much when you have reactive or otherwise ugly-looking chemistry, so I expect the compound by THLD to do worse than that of ZIOP. ZIOP's concept of eliminating the prodrug was in part appealing to me, as were their p2 data, but it turns out these were probably full of the human bias that comes with open label studies... I don't see a much better future for THLD, although I didn't put much time reading into the company's details, so perhaps I am only venting my ZIOP loss now.

Bullish MACD crossover on 02/20/13

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/fund-trades/779590.
http://twitter.com/portefeuillefun.

The agreement with MERCK. The key.

Zack's said so...

Pancreatic cancer is so bad that any drug that helps extend lives is valuable

Threshold Pharmaceuticals Inc. (THLD) said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration reached agreement with a Threshold partner covering a special protocol assessment for a Phase 3 trial of TH-302, allowing the companies to push forward the study of the pancreatic cancer drug.

Threshold is a great example of how I now use CAPS as a map for future trades. Right now, the stock is clearly in decline due to a crisis in confidence about the clinical and commercial potential of hypoxia-activated alkylating agent TH-302 for pancreatic cancer. A lucrative partnership with Merck KgGA and impressive phase II data indicating a significant progression-free survival advantage led to a six bagger between February and September. However, weak overall survival data has led to a decline of 35% from the highs.

I'll leave the mastication of the OS data to the stat guys. Data breakdown is not my bag. My specialty is analysis of market psychology that results in tidal movements in biopharma small cap stocks. Right now the tide is going out, but all indications are that the Merck partnership will remain intact and that TH-302 is headed for a phase III trial in pancreatic cancer. At some point Threshold will bottom out and once the phase III trial is in progress, the run-up people will start moving back into the stock.

From a real money perspective, Threshold won't be at the forefront of my mind. And this pick could drop 10, 20, or 50 points and even become unrecoverable. But every time I review my CAPS picks, I'll have a reminder of my strategy for this stock for when the time comes.

I believe once the data comes out for TH-302 and they get their milestone payments from Merck, its a done deal.

Threshold's leading drug candidate, "TH-302," targets pancreatic cancer with nearly twice as many patients responding positively to the combination of TH-302 and Eli Lilly's Gemzar compared to those who took Gemzar alone.

They look to be way overvalued for what they have in cash, ect.

400% increase since dec. for portefeille.

Successful product development and collaboration.

biotech

They have numerous cancer drugs in the works that appear to be doing well in clinical trials. They recently inked a deal with Merck in Germany to commercialize one of their drugs, which is also an indication that they are doing well.

Looking for a bounce into ASCO. We are past yet another round of dilution and there has been some notable insider and institutional buying of late. Highly speculative but not much more then some of my other holdings. M21 in at 1.87...boo yah

Latest direct offering netted company 30 million dollars. Insiders and Institutions have purchased over 5 million shares since early March. Stock Is now about 40 cents under their average buying prices. I love these little biotechs,and I like the drug discovery platform that this company Is using. Threshold is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery and development of therapeutics based on Tumor Hypoxia, a powerful scientific platform that offers broad potential to treat most solid tumors. By selectively targeting tumor cells, they are building a pipeline of drugs that hold promise to be more effective and less toxic to healthy tissues than conventional drugs.

insider buying