Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:THLD)

CAPS Rating: 5 out of 5

A biotechnology company focused on the discovery and development of small molecule therapeutics for the potential treatment of cancer.

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Member Avatar oscillation (30.73) Submitted: 12/21/2015 10:08:03 AM : Outperform Start Price: $0.51 THLD Score: -36.05

nev

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.78) Submitted: 12/13/2015 12:03:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $0.57 THLD Score: -40.62

If you want to be a biotech trader, you have three options:

1. Pro - can't do this on your own. You need to join up with a large hedge fund like Baker Bros or Tang that knows how to get access to info retail investors can't get, which requires investing in large enough blocks that company management will talk to you privately. Sure, insider trading is illegal, but selective disclosure of information to subsets of the public occurs on a regular basis in the light of day via conferences and roadshows. There's a huge gray area here and a lack of SEC oversight, and if you think the pros don't exploit this to the maximum they think they can get away with then you probably belong in category number two.

2. Believer - invest their money on what they believe will be the long term success of the company. Few believers have actually done due diligence, although they are fond of spouting the phrase "DD". They are mostly receptive personalities who have been convinced by company PR, sellside analyst commentary, or the self-serving pronouncements of popular traders. Because of the close correlation between hype and a lack of commitment to real drug development, believers' faith is usually misplaced. They're often the last ones in after the stock is already pumped and the last ones out once the pipeline is blown up. Believers are largely responsible for creating alpha for the pros.

3. Skeptic - if you want to have any hope at beating the index while trading independently, the best path is to render yourself as objective and unemotional as possible. Skeptics don't believe in anything but their own brokerage account. That means judging stocks solely based on a dispassionate assessment of their probabilities of going up versus down. The basis for that judgment could be fundamentals, technicals, DCF analysis, or anything except a fervent adeherence to a pre-existing viewpoint. For a skeptic, today's strong buy could be tomorrow's strong sell depending on the price action and the catalysts. Being a skeptic is far from a guarantee of beating the index - you're still more likely to lose than win. The pros are very hard to beat.

That brings us to Threshold. Following the seemingly predictable failure to meet primary endpoints in two phase III trials of evofosfamide, the share price now stands at about an eighth of what is was a month ago. Clearly I made an error in not pulling the trigger on puts despite the high premium. The market cap is 36M. Cash was 56M as of the end of September. The company has been burning about 10M per quarter, which will probably decline to 7-8M with the conclusion of the phase III trials. Despite the failure of evofosfamide, Threshold's pipeline is not vaporized. Last August they initiated phase II trials of hypoxia-activated EGFR/HER2 inhibitor tarloxitinib in NSCLC and head and neck cancer. Initial data from the trials is expected in the first half of 2016. Of course, a genuine skeptic understands that tarloxitinib is strongly tainted by the Threshold's prior failures, not just because the drug is based on the same hypoxia principle but because the company has inflated hopes and dashed them so many times before. The main thing for the skeptic to bet on here is that the stock will attract a new crew of believers to fund a run allowing the skeptic to seel at a higher price.

Unfortunately, the behavior of believers is not easily predictable. One stock like Threshold might explode tenfold in a few months, while ten others might stagnate or decline deeper into the pennies. Sometimes all it takes is a Seeking Alpha article or another action by a so-called guru to create the spark, but this particular skeptic won't go that route. I'm fine with profiting from believers' misguided investing, but I'm not the type to do the misguiding. That means for my bet on Threshold to work, someone will have to come along early next year and start hyping the stock. Othwerise, Threshold's going to find themselves in a cash crunch and a reverse split and ... we know how that story ends.

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Member Avatar Eric509 (< 20) Submitted: 8/11/2015 2:14:52 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.17 THLD Score: -83.45

addressing tumor hypoxia seems to be the forward thinking approach

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Member Avatar walkmar (< 20) Submitted: 7/6/2015 11:13:20 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.03 THLD Score: -83.71

Good earning growth. Solid and novel science behind product.

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Member Avatar chris293 (34.11) Submitted: 7/31/2013 6:42:22 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.48 THLD Score: -105.27

good earning growth bodes well for this stock.

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Member Avatar scrubs62074 (< 20) Submitted: 2/20/2013 10:59:26 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.84 THLD Score: -117.08

Bullish MACD crossover on 02/20/13

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Member Avatar FWWright (< 20) Submitted: 10/25/2012 10:49:51 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.55 THLD Score: -126.64

Pancreatic cancer is so bad that any drug that helps extend lives is valuable

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Member Avatar colbyt34 (< 20) Submitted: 7/6/2012 2:04:38 AM : Outperform Start Price: $7.91 THLD Score: -134.93

I believe once the data comes out for TH-302 and they get their milestone payments from Merck, its a done deal.

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Member Avatar jdill23 (< 20) Submitted: 4/3/2012 3:19:17 PM : Underperform Start Price: $7.35 THLD Score: +129.37

They look to be way overvalued for what they have in cash, ect.

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Member Avatar STAINEDGLASSER (34.73) Submitted: 2/6/2012 1:26:49 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.63 THLD Score: -131.97

They have numerous cancer drugs in the works that appear to be doing well in clinical trials. They recently inked a deal with Merck in Germany to commercialize one of their drugs, which is also an indication that they are doing well.

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Member Avatar topsecret10 (< 20) Submitted: 4/1/2011 11:56:58 AM : Outperform Start Price: $1.60 THLD Score: -122.46

Latest direct offering netted company 30 million dollars. Insiders and Institutions have purchased over 5 million shares since early March. Stock Is now about 40 cents under their average buying prices. I love these little biotechs,and I like the drug discovery platform that this company Is using. Threshold is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery and development of therapeutics based on Tumor Hypoxia, a powerful scientific platform that offers broad potential to treat most solid tumors. By selectively targeting tumor cells, they are building a pipeline of drugs that hold promise to be more effective and less toxic to healthy tissues than conventional drugs.

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Member Avatar polvo23 (< 20) Submitted: 2/11/2007 7:51:58 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.31 THLD Score: -129.83

phase 3...did all the research

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Member Avatar epocrates (< 20) Submitted: 2/2/2007 10:47:48 AM : Underperform Start Price: $3.48 THLD Score: +129.43

Pancreatic cancer is hard to show survival. Refractory pancreatic cancer is impossible to survival.

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Member Avatar Rhondalo (32.33) Submitted: 12/29/2006 11:45:56 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.72 THLD Score: -132.65

Trials look positive for pancreatic cancer and they may resume clinical research for prostate cancer.

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Member Avatar pwlkrphllp (38.88) Submitted: 12/29/2006 2:36:46 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.11 THLD Score: -133.39

cancer

Results 1 - 15 of 15

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