Tiffany & Co. (TIF)

Downthumb. Very high valuations. Slow 5 year sales growth. Nominal cash flow. Negative cap-ex. Nominal debt ratio. Ho hum. High short base.

with rates coming down, TIF will be a leader into a market recovery.

Consumer slowdown has started. Anything bought with home equity withdrawal will get killed.

This is another company thats sells to the rich, and what do rich people have? Money!

This diamond has flaws that will show up soon in earnings surprises(NEGATIVE).It is a opportunity to short at $25!

TIF will outperform as jitters about retail sales will bring down the market but a high end retailer like TIF will keep chugging along. It also looks strong technically so I am in this as a short term (weeks to months) trade.

http://www.apollodiamond.com/press/wsj.pdf

Thinking realistically about the cultured pearl effect, the initial backlash from traditional pearl providers was that the cultured ones were also inferior, though they were in fact chemically and physically identical. This will undoubtedly occur with the diamond market as well when the manufacturing process becomes more efficient. Earth stone for $1000 or same size, better quality REAL diamond AND half of next year's ESPN Gameplan? It is not a hard call, and as the supply increases, "real" diamonds will just lose market share.

Yesterdays retailer reports solidified my opinion on this. 64% of retailers reported positive surprises -- so how can I take away negative indicators from that? Lets briefly look at those numbers. One most of the retailers had revised downwards so the positive surprises were above muted expectations. Two, who reported positive surprises, Saks and Nordstroms (Luxury), Pacific Sunwear and Abercrombie (Teen), Walmart (Discount), Macy's (Discount Teen). Who reported Negatively, Chicos and Ann Taylor (Womens Clothing). Throw out the luxury retailers as they are not a leading indicator as they are less susceptible to economic changes and those that regularly shop at these stores are the last ones to get laid off. The teen retailers and the discount retailers profitted from strong back to school sales (albeit it took deep discounts at both Walmart and Macy's to pull that off), but the adult women's clothing stores plunged (Chico's -9.3% and Ann Taylor -2.9%). Diagnosis: mom and dad are tight but don't want the kids to know it so they got them everything they wanted for back to school by not spending a dime on themselves. Consumers are at the end of their rope and are going to stop spending on all things that are not necessary which includes luxury goods. Common theory suggests that luxury retailers are less susceptible to economic downturns due to the financial stability of their customers. This is true during small fluctuations in the economic health of the country but not prolonged and pronounced recessions downturns. Further given the level of debt in the economy and the US addiction to brands I believe that many people have been stretching well beyond their means to pay for luxury goods and the luxury consumer base has grown well beyond its traditionally wealthy base. I predict that the luxury retailers get hurt faster and harder than in previous slow periods.

bullishbabo

Conservative management and a brand name that has stood the test of time. This company has stood out among the many new comers as the standard for luxury and fine jewelry.

Yes the company is high-end retail. Yes the stock has tanked. Yes people aren't buying like they used to. Yes Holiday sales are going to be small. Most of that seems to be pretty short-term. The only thing that isn't is the fact that the company is high-end retail. And know what that means?

Profitability. Long-term profitability. Very, very decent growth rates for a big company. Not only that, but they pay a decent 3.4% dividend yield. Not to mention that the yield growth far exceeds that of its sector.

EPS has increased steadily without counting the Holiday rush, so even if this season is grim for Tiffany's, every other will be steady. Their profit margins are double digit. What's not to like about that? And also, it's noteworthy the company's solid double digit ROE and ROI and ROA.

The other thing I like is how long management has been with the company. Since 1998, they've had a stock price growth of 622%. These guys know what they're doing, and they know how to outlast a slow shopping season.

Value stock.

Will weather the economy better than most luxury items

Outrageous prices for mechandise and the shares. Diamond demand will drop with the coming credit implosion. The PE should be 12 on these peaking earnings.

Tiffany's has been expanding overseas where the growth and new money is. Wealthier people spend money at the retailer even in bad times. (They put off buying any new jets, however.) I think I like their brand better than any competitors.

Paying 10% on debt.. ouch! you have to be desperate. Thats going to take a chunk out of the profit margin (if there is any). If the stock was going to go up, they would have traded buffet stock for $$, but he wanted 10% yielding bonds instead. WHY?? duh this things not going to outperform the market. AM I missing something??

STRONG COMPANY

Tiffany VS Coach.

Tiffany has been high-end, but is now offering a lower-end line of jewelry. Good move, and will attract lots of younger demographics. Definitely good with the economy slumping and consumer spending at an all time low.

Coach, on the other hand, is a polar opposite, an upper-mid end company trying to aim for LV territory. Dumb move, as this reverse idea doesn't work. Will lose some customers, compounded by decreasing consumer spending. Coach had a nice niche in the handbag industry. Why aim for the likes of Gucci, Prada, and LV? Too crowded in my opinion.

Tiffany will rise, Coach will fall!

This stock appears to be above where it was last year, but I don’t believe that the economy has recovered enough to have faith that their sales and profits will support their current stock price. The upside potential appears fairly limited unless they stockpiled gold and silver jewelry when the prices of the metals were far lower. It appears more likely that optimism about a recovery has contributed to their stock gains. That optimism can quickly fade with increasing unemployment and depressed retail sales during the holiday season.

Hot store, but a conservative stock performer.