Tiffany & Co. (TIF)

This stock appears to be above where it was last year, but I don’t believe that the economy has recovered enough to have faith that their sales and profits will support their current stock price. The upside potential appears fairly limited unless they stockpiled gold and silver jewelry when the prices of the metals were far lower. It appears more likely that optimism about a recovery has contributed to their stock gains. That optimism can quickly fade with increasing unemployment and depressed retail sales during the holiday season.

High class and high margins, they're THE brand in the industry. And they're the major name in more than just the US; They're huge internationally, epecially in Asia, where there is a ton of growth potential.
They've got lots of cash and lots of potential, especially now that they're tapping the mainstream with more realistically priced items in adition to the ultra high-end they're known for.
Value.

re-upping after a gain of almost +17

Maybe they could start a fashion trend by selling bankruptcy rings. People would max out their credit cards buying these rings, then declare bankruptcy.

The only way I can see TIF making any sales during this economic environment is if the number of high cost weddings rise dramatically.

Luxury high end retailer whose clientele are saying, "what recession?"..should be a banner quarter for TIF with all the bonus money yet to be paid out to the investment class and a group that I feel is recession proof.

The Tiffany brand is expanding nicely and there is still room to slowly pick up other brands. A radical position would be remaking the company as a luxury goods brand (not probably IMHO) or be bought out.

http://www.apollodiamond.com/press/wsj.pdf

Thinking realistically about the cultured pearl effect, the initial backlash from traditional pearl providers was that the cultured ones were also inferior, though they were in fact chemically and physically identical. This will undoubtedly occur with the diamond market as well when the manufacturing process becomes more efficient. Earth stone for $1000 or same size, better quality REAL diamond AND half of next year's ESPN Gameplan? It is not a hard call, and as the supply increases, "real" diamonds will just lose market share.

VL

TIF will outperform as jitters about retail sales will bring down the market but a high end retailer like TIF will keep chugging along. It also looks strong technically so I am in this as a short term (weeks to months) trade.

Lately it has been doing better than expected.

they say diamonds are a girl's best friend. my best friend is the diamond company that's still looking cheap, but on the rebound from the past 3 months volatility. tiffany & co. has a strong retail history and even stronger cutomer base.

Outrageous prices for mechandise and the shares. Diamond demand will drop with the coming credit implosion. The PE should be 12 on these peaking earnings.

The strength of TIF is NOT that they sell diamonds, the strength is that their stores and catalogs understand that some people have tons of money to spend, and some people only have a little - and TIF will sell little blue boxes to ALL of them.

Long term growth will hold, will be a tough Holiday this year, so probably a good time to buy in Jan

One month into the second quarter company is all set to achieve the overall expectation. Strong sales growth in U.S. and in most international markets is offsetting continued weakness in Japan.

During the recent quarter, net sales rose 15% to $620.87 million primarily due to the Asia-Pacific and Europe region. Gross margins deteriorated by 130 bps attributable to higher product costs, increased wholesale sales of diamonds and changes in sales mix toward higher-ticket and lower margin jewelry. During the quarter company added a net of 3 retail locations, which consists net 1 in Japan, and the remaining each in Korea and Singapore. Besides it repurchased 520,618 shares at a total cost of about $25 million leaving $670 million available for repurchases through December 2009, thus enhancing shareholder value.

In the recent past Tiffany has developed a very strong, competitive watch assortment, with a long-term objective to increase watch sales as a percentage of our overall business. As it believes that expanding distribution through other fine jewelry and watch retailers will enable it to generate meaningful incremental sales growth, it is trying various means to execute the same. It recently announced plans to launch a significant expansion of its wholesale distribution of watches in 2008 in major U.S. and international markets, which will give the company further assistance in broadening the top line. Full year 2007 expectation now calls for approximately 12% sales growth, an improved operating margin and EPS in the range of $2.10 - $2.15, which gives further scope of an improvement.

This company has a heavy presence in Asia, and derives much of its sales from overseas. With the economies in these areas producing upwardly mobile classes TIF is positioned to do well. As the dollar weakens shopping at TIF becomes cheaper for those shopping in alternative currencies. The only headwind here is commodity pricing increasing material costs.

Blue boxes, green pockets

Tiffany & Co. by all accounts looks to do well in the coming months and year(s) as the Company continues to pursue new retail locations and is increasing online sales. I have personally visited the NYC flagship store and the brand new Nashville location, and I frequent the website (and regularly receive their e-mailer) and I have nothing but praise for the ultra-elite jewelry company. I just wish I had more money to actually purchase the exsquisite goods rather than just drool over the keyboard and the protective glass cases in the stores. The value of precious metals is increasing, which will likely result in higher prices for the T & Co. product lines, but that has never stopped the uber-rich from stopping and dropping a dime before. It's also worth mentioning that many of the Company's sterling silver items, designed by various prestigious artists, are often more affordable and may serve to entice the greater populace and only enhance the Company's profits in the months and years to come.

Insider selling.

No home equity = less jewelry