Temple-Inland, Inc. (TIN)

I have a negative forward outlook for all 4 of Temple-Inland's business segments. Their business has been hit hard by the slump in residential real estate and construction, which is likely to continue. TIN's debt load, revenue and earnings over the last 2 years makes the current valuation overoptimistic.

However I did not make this pick at a good price. Historically TIN has strong earnings power, which is one reason my pick was too low and too soon.

TIN is set to take advantage of growth in the South Eastern United States, however TIN has a operating profit margin less than the industry average. TIN has a higher than average net profit margin. If you look at the 10K's from the past 5 years you will see a company changing rapidly. Today it is a corrugated and building products manufacture, it used to own a bank, which they sold before the financial crisis. It also used to own its own forest, it sold its interests in forests. Management seems better at selling off portions of the company than keeping costs low in an extremely competitive industry. Lets hope they know what they are doing!

Better than expected revenue for first Q 09, has business in housing which should recover, corrugated business not likely to decline

random picks of this week's top ten gainers

One of my favorite stocks ever. TIN has made me money before, of course that was after a $7 a share hit and a thumbs up from Jim Cramer ( Thanks Cramer it wasn't the first loss you cost me, but thankfully you have helped me make more than I have lost ) So I bought more and ended up clearing $5+ a share.

I asked a question on the SA advisor board about this when it was in the low $2 range. I was told, "not a good idea". I should have put it on CAPS then. Anywhoo, this company definitely stands to from any growth in any construction upswing. TINs timber leases are solid and they definintely have the capacity to handle increased orders.

Very poorly valued compared to industry.

Hurricane Ike may have damaged the facilities in East Texas but the people will restore the business to the pre-storm production and the company will stand strong!

vanamonde

New 52 week low. Natural resource play. High dividend yield.

After some restructuring, stock looks poised to get back to
higher ground. Hopefully, they'll start paying down some of that debt.

The Restructuring of Temple-Inland includes the upgrade of manufacturing equiptment that will increase quality and productivity without trying hard. The stock is way undervalued and it will not take the company long at all to out perform any competitor in the corrugated packaging industry.

Pros:
* Higher margins than competition, due to higher percentage of virgin timber inputs.
* Better focus on core business after timberland and financial services divestment.

Cons:
* Housing slump may keep the stock down for longer than expected.

Target price:
$18 in 2-4 years.

Company sold off its timberland and

real estate/financial businesses, but those contributed

less than 20% of revenue and 15% of profit.

Now it is selling at 25% of last year. It's paperboard business should do well as soon as the economy recovers, and when housing recovers, this seems a guaranteed triple.

Options look curious

Good fundamentals and good price.

Trying to emulate Warren Buffet by buying what seems to be a reasonably priced, boring company.

LOOK AT THE NUMBERS FOOL!

When the economy picks up so will the need for boxes.