TiVo, Inc. (TIVO)

DVR's are now being installed with most cable providers including, comcast, dish, directv, and att. This is taking away the competitive advantage that tivo had 5 years ago.
EPS in 2008: 1.01
EPS in 2009: -.21
EPS in 2010: -.2
Revenue is down year over year, and current P/E and Forward P/E are both 0.

Low Sales and Return on Equity

TIVO has aging patents on soon to be obselete technology. TV shows are rapidly becoming on-demand through the internet rather than streaming through a set-top box and soon TiVo will be left fighting for patents that aren't worth anything.

Technology that depends on people having a "box" on their TV seems very susceptible to being overtaken by cloud technology and advanced DVR technology from cable and satellite providers.

Today the patent office issued an office action in the reexamination of tivo's so called time warp patent that has generated a good deal of revenue for them. The office action rejected the two claims of tivos time warp patent that echostar had been found to infringe. If these claims are finally held to be invalid then tivos competitive advantage and licensing revenue are in significant peril.

Who uses Tivo? Who will still use Tivo in 5 years?

Every cable and satelite company offers their own DVR's now. Good while it lasted, Tivo is on the way out.

It's not good when a relatively new technology is already having declining revenue. Most people that have cable DVR's don't know what they are missing, and never will.

This cutting edge company has lost the edge to it's competitors. Although it holds many patents on technology some are in contention and some will prove to be unenforceable. Despite it's victory over EchoStar (Dish Network) last year and the funds it provided, I fear that TiVo is undercapitalized and playing in a market which it cannot hope to prevail. It is possible that some of the "big boys" may just buy the company to obtain the patents; however, I am not sure how such actions may be viewed by the board of TiVo.

There's a lot of concern here in terms of competition; having a business model based on doing one and only one thing in an evolving market is a good way to get left behind. The numbers aren't bad but the question is whether TiVo will have a chance in the future to make enough money before it's obsolete.

I used to have a Tivo for my old TV. It was a great product, absolutely loved it.

When we upgraded to HD, which the rest of the country is heading to eventually, we received a box from the cable company, a Motorolla I believe, that while not as pretty as the Tivo, is perfectly functional and doesn't have an upfront cost.

Where does TiVo go from here? They're not exactly a future proof company and as another fool said, they didn't lock in enough people from the start.

Go to any electronics store and look at how many Tivo's are sitting around. People are using cable and satellite-based DVR's; they're cheaper, as easy to use, and are HD friendly. Digital transition in 2009 won't make much of a difference, if you've got a 25-year-old TV the last thing you're going to buy is a DVR.

Tivo was the first to market TV recording wonder, but they didn't lock in their customers as firmly as they should have.

This company didn't update their technology as quickly as they needed to, and worse, they are being outperformed by lock in contracts like direct tv dvr and comcast. You get a tivo-like recorder built into your cable box and the service is all pre-packaged in a nice cable deal when you sign up. These deals are running Tivo right out of the market and negating their product.

The company has not seen much movement up or down, they need a serious overhaul before the once leader, in this awesome technology, is buried and gone. If they don't they'll either be gone or they may turn into the cheap knock off brand and be forced to lower their subscription rates until they're the kmart of the technology world.

sell it

They haven't generally made money. Now that they're trying to make money via some kind of "free" model, I think people will drop them due to the ads.

The business model is dying. DVR technology is easily replicable, and TIVO's software is not absolutely superior or uncopiable. There isn't much in terms of brand name protection, since people choose their cable based on price and service, not brand like for clothing or cars.

TIVO has to compete against Microsoft, Verizon, and AT&T. These behemoths can crush TIVO by waging a war of attrition. Even though TIVO may have won against Echostar in trial, DirecTV has introduced its own competitor, moving away from TIVO. DirecTV had been a significant MSO for TIVO.

Also, DVR technology is not the wave of the future. The wave of the future is VOD through broadband directly to your TV. Also, new televisions come with hard drives attached or compatibility with external hard drives, meaning no one will pay a monthly fee to use this service.

Finally, simply looking at their income statement and balance sheet shows a very unprofitable/unhealthy company. If their CFO remains constant from last year, they will burn their cash reserve in 2 years. Analyst EPS outlook isn't positive by then. Could simply burn out if it can't find additional financing.

There is too much competition for this sector to compete with the S & P.

Been following this one for 4-5 years, and it is a go-nowhere stock. I managed to make a little profit over a very long time, waiting for the big payday that was always supposedly just around the corner. They DO have great technology and a loyal customer base. But the stock is manipulated as hell, and in the end neither the shorts nor the longs turn out to be right.

EXP NEG EARN