The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR)

A consistent winner.

buy local

growth in manufacturing and infrastructure will increase demand for Timken products. Agressive dividend history will help stock price appreciation as well

12/11

jubakpicks.com: U.S. exporter that sells to China. A stronger yuan—and a weaker dollar (How long can the safe haven effect balance out a slowing U.S. economy?) elsewhere in the world—makes U.S. products cheaper to customers. I think this will help U.S. companies pick up some more market share, which in many cases should be more than enough to offset any slowing in an economy such as China’s. That is, in fact exactly what Cummins (CMI) said in a recent conference call where the company talked about a temporary slowdown in Chinas sales but a gain in market share over the slightly longer time frame. Besides Cummins I’d look to shares of Johnson Controls (JCI), Joy Global (JOYG), Borg Warner (BWA), and Timken (TKR).

Timken is a strong, conservative, 110 year old company with a solid dividend and a compelling global growth strategy.

A superbly run company with a stellar balance sheet and high insider ownership. The aging commercial jet and railroad segments will provide growth when capital budgets loosen up, as they must. Additional growth will come along as rail infrastructure is expanded.

This company has a lot of managment problems they tend to think of only how to make more profit at the expense of thier employess. by doing this they have created a very bad moral problem at all thier plants. the magament has shown now signs that they know what is going on in the company plants only that they make a profit no matter what the cost. until this attitude changes i think the company will be had press to make it in this market they are forcing alot of experencice people out and replaceing them with people who know nothing about the basic busness that they are in.

Cyclical action in an uncertain market in an adverse environment.

Timken has internal problems, they're going through a seemingly chaotic re-organization, and personally I see little innovation from their current leadership and virtually no vision. It is as though the company as a whole is stagnating, which will only get worse since the Automotive Sector (their bread and butter for years) is drying up on them. Although they make a good product, their executive decisions are marginal at best. Timken's recent massive reduction in workforce and plant closures do not indicate to me that they are all that stable of an investment. Yes, they will survive as they have for over 100 years, just don't expect anything noteworthy from TKR. Past trends and upswings don't mean a thing in this economic climate. And Wind Turbines, something Timken is banking on, is not their answer now that fuel prices have dropped to acceptable levels and the alternative energy demand has died down again.

This company appears to offer a solid opportunity as of today (April 2009).
The company is trading below reported book value and is paying high dividends. Additionally the company operates outside of the FIRE (financial insurance real estate) sector of the economy, so chances are, what you see is what you get. I've personally screened this company to ensure it did not expand excessively during the hot years (2004-2008).
This company was found today via google screener with the following criteria:
atleast 100m market cap or more
has fallen more than 45% past 1yr
dividend payers @3% or more
atleast 25% institutionally held
price to book less than 1
have total debt/assets less than 100%
have total debt/equity less than 100%
personally screened to make sure the companies were not FIRE industries (financial/insurance/real estate), oil commodity related, industrial metal commodities related, sea shipping related
personally verified limitation on expansion during boom years (not excessive BS growth from '04-'08)

the resulting dividend companies to buy are:
AM, BRC, CBS, CBT, CDI, CSS, GLT, HRC, KELYA, LYTS, MEI, MWV, SXI, TKR, UVV

conversely I will be looking to short opportunities with opposite criteria.

This will be the primary focus of this profile, to seek & obtain alpha from long/short dividend opportunities across various industries.
- ALPHADividend

It is a solid company with good historical earnings. In a growing economy focusing on rebuilding infrostructure, high quality steel will be in demand.

Good growth and future earnings.

Value. Low PE, low debt, good yield, trading below book.

plunged way too far.

when the economy rebounds, this stock will participate in the infrastructure sector and do reasonably well. Could have more downside in the short term as the auto insdustry is in a depressed state.

Deej's blog post on 5/19 convinced me that wind investing is a great way to go. TKR makes ball bearings for windmills. It's down almost 10% today on no news that I can find. The p/e ratio at this level is reasonable (12.7), and currently yielding 2.1% dividend. I'm not conceiving of this stock as a double within a year, but a good steady grower over the next 5 years with your dividend to boot.

Stealth wind play

When the new CU-ICAR officially opens in early 2008 Timken stock will soar. The automotive industry is looking for a place in America to research and test new auto innovations. CU-Icar is the place and Timken is a big part of that.