iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (ET (AMEX:TLT)

Short treasuries

this is not going to continue

Our Treasury just cannot keep going like it has the last couple of years. Is QE3 going to bail it out again? Can they buy their own bonds since other countries have stopped buying as much of them. I think not and this fund should tank when everyone realizes it.

Interest rate on bond lower than ever and government debt higher than ever. Bond interest rate will correct.

Interest rates have one way to go. down.

stock bond spread needs to fall.

I'm surprised that I haven't done this before now. As is, though, I remain convinced that Treasuries can't go up forever, even though I've been wrong for quite a while.
As referred to in this CAPS Call: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/11/29/bonds-wont-stay-bulletproof-forever.aspx

Everyone knows interest rates have no where to go but up.

The flight to safety will probably continue for a bit, but not indefinitely...

decisionmoose and timing-signals.com are buying

moose

Imaginary issue of WSJ from Aug 12, 2012:

"Bond prices rose to par, and yields dropped to zero as the US announced default on all its bonds.

"All the bonds currently circulating in the market are null and void" - said the Treasury Department communique released before markets opened. "Bondholders will not be repaid the interest and the principal on any of the bonds, ever."

As the stock market collapsed, investors sold mutual funds and put the money in treasury bonds.

One bond investor staying the course is Warren Buffett. In an interview aired on CNBC in the morning, Buffett said the bonds were as safe as ever. "In my mind, US bonds still deserve an AAA rating. If I could, I would even give them the fourth A" - he said. "The payments on these bonds are not safe. But the bonds are."

Bill Gross of PIMCO said his firm would continue to invest in Treasuries despite their zero yield and the assured loss of the principal. "You have to put you money to work somewhere" - he explained. "Investment is about safety, not about preservation of the principal. And with so much uncertainty in equity markets, you want to invest your money in a safe instrument such as US bonds."

Nobel Prize wining economist Paul Krugman said the US government had a chance to solve its long-standing deficit problem by selling more of zero-principal, negative-interest bonds to the eager investors. "The US default has triggered another invisible attack by the invisible bond vigilantes" - he commented sarcastically as the 10-year bond yield on the chart went under the zero baseline. "And right now, with the 10-year rate at 0% —0%! — the market is basically signaling that it doesn’t care a bit about the yield or about the principal, but that it’s terrified about growth prospects."

TBT would have been great until Greece and the PIIGS happened.

Bonds

Long term treasury interest rates are near the end of a long term secular bull market. There is simply too much supply and too much potential for rising interest rates.

Treasuries are at near record low yields, and thus at record high prices... Thus this ETF can't go much higher, and won't keep up with the S&P500 over the long term.

Almost time for the treasury market to die a slow painful death. Get ready...

No question, long bonds are nobody's favorite right now, but over the long term, they have provided the highest safe bond return and the most negative correlation with stocks, which does wonders for your total portfolio performance.

Long bonds can only go down with higher interest rate.