iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas.Bond (ETF) (TLT)
Exchange Traded Funds
Recs
falcon2382
(35.52)
Submitted: 10/28/2009 5:50:43 PM :
Start Price:
$94.86
TLT Score:
+0.20
Without a doubt this is a horrible long term call, but I only plan to "park" money here temporarily so that, like the other gazillion Fools who were prudent enough to realize that a major bear market rally was underway and get long (also temporarily), I can get out of all my equity holdings fast. On Friday, October 23rd when i saw that the day was without going to be a gargantuan bear reversal engulfing day at the tipity-top of the bear market rally, I decided to get out of all my long positions in my IRA, my 403b and my 401k, etc... I recognized that I was up 60% in less than a year and said... sh!t man, I'll take it. But then... the devastating realization that I have to park that money somewhere came to me--soon followed by the realization that I'm not alone in this matter, though probably a little early. And hence, I knew that a whole lot of people were going to put their money into safe bonds and that we would probably see a risk aversion trend begin again that would push up bonds while equities sank. I also don't think it's a coincidence that the government is holding--not just a record auction, but a record auction that pales all previous record auctions--just as the market is about to cave. They are clever little people aren't they. Any who, I realize that my CAPS score does not represent my previous bullish attitude, but that's because I think we are in a bear market rally. I expect a right shoulder to form in the indicies (which presumes another bounce higher) but then the sky will fall again. And Gawd help us when the stupid and expensive stimulus plans end because we'll actually be forced to take the medicine. GL all!
Recs
jdawg1847
(97.74)
Submitted: 10/3/2009 7:40:00 AM :
Start Price:
$99.15
TLT Score:
-9.25
Another deflationary bought is beginning.
Recs
sberberick
(89.14)
Submitted: 9/20/2009 4:31:13 PM :
Start Price:
$95.36
TLT Score:
-2.07
At this price offers low risk , high yield pick .
Recs
russfischer1013
(91.12)
Submitted: 9/18/2009 12:37:52 PM :
Start Price:
$95.83
TLT Score:
+2.06
T bond bubble
Recs
jaygatsby49
(99.17)
Submitted: 9/15/2009 2:35:09 PM :
Start Price:
$94.89
TLT Score:
-2.64
I am predicting bond will outperfrom equities for the next few years. My reasons are as follows:
The S&P is way overpriced, the P/E ratio is above the historic median.
David Rosenberg points out the S&P has priced in 4% GDP growth for 2010 while the bond market has priced in 2%.
More than 100% of the economic growth we have seen in 2009 has been the result of government spending. This cannot continue forever. If you take away government spending in 2009 real GDP would be down around 6%
While firms have been "beating" earnings estimates those estimated have been DRASTICALLY cut down over the past year.
Lastly if you look at the S&P 500 earnings have been made by cutting costs, as revenue is down. You can only cut costs (lay off people) for so long, eventually you have to sell more.
Recs
WCWlooky
(23.41)
Submitted: 8/24/2009 10:30:53 PM :
Start Price:
$94.46
TLT Score:
-4.48
Still think this is a bear Market rally with double dip Recession/Depression
Recs
dmccartney
(98.13)
Submitted: 8/4/2009 7:41:16 PM :
Start Price:
$90.48
TLT Score:
+2.71
With interest rates as low as they are now, when the economy recovers, either interest rates will increase, thereby lowering the value of the bonds, or the S&P will rise, causing the bonds to underperform. The only way these funds can outperform is for the economy to decline long-term, which is highly unlikely. Almost a no-brainer pick.
Recs
katinga
(85.38)
Submitted: 6/4/2009 11:58:06 AM :
Start Price:
$89.66
TLT Score:
+10.42
Safest play against treasuries is to short this ETF. I´m planning on doing this with real mony, rather than buying TFT.
http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/06/julian-robertsons-steepener-swap-play.html
Recs
valuefrog
(72.50)
Submitted: 5/27/2009 11:19:59 PM :
Start Price:
$89.99
TLT Score:
+15.27
Buffett says Treasuries are in a giant bubble
Recs
007CPA
(97.60)
Submitted: 5/21/2009 12:59:50 PM :
Start Price:
$93.50
TLT Score:
+20.92
Treasury bubble. Treasuries are correcting.
Recs
tonylogan1
(29.11)
Submitted: 4/30/2009 11:36:56 AM :
Start Price:
$95.85
TLT Score:
-24.37
Herztical this is for you!
Recs
Lance912
(90.02)
Submitted: 3/24/2009 1:34:14 AM :
Start Price:
$99.91
TLT Score:
+39.79
Treasury Bubble
Recs
nihilkillsmemore
(< 20)
Submitted: 3/21/2009 5:55:14 PM :
Start Price:
$101.67
TLT Score:
-45.79
ok ok i was wrong!!!(I could be wrong again) we are still suffering from deflation, NOT INFLATION!.. the rally we just experience in the bond and fall of the dollar was to fight deflation with inflation by the regulators. The dollar tanked in anticipation of stimulus to the bond market, BUT there seems to be support for the dollar at its current levels, if the dollar continues to rally the bond market could rally even further. I will revise my decision until I see REAL INFLATION!! not ANTICIPATION OF INFLATION!!
Recs
Afropuffashion
(< 20)
Submitted: 3/4/2009 12:52:24 PM :
Start Price:
$98.99
TLT Score:
-59.56
The Market is down 40% and Treasury is down 20%. The div is reliable. Come on
Recs
JesusIsComing
(26.76)
Submitted: 2/18/2009 8:44:11 PM :
Start Price:
$99.95
TLT Score:
+43.34
sell short, bad debt
Recs
BigHorseShoe
(78.48)
Submitted: 2/10/2009 4:08:33 PM :
Start Price:
$103.03
TLT Score:
+39.90
Inflation is coming, Inflation is coming! There is much more reward then risk with the Treasury at these levels
Recs
EBOYLE
(71.30)
Submitted: 2/9/2009 11:52:41 AM :
Start Price:
$98.44
TLT Score:
-30.14
WHILE STOCKS CONTINUE TO FALTER BONDS WILL BE THE SLOW STEADY WINNER. CONTINUE TO HOLD AS LONGS AS
STOCKS HAVE NOT HIT THEIR BOTTOM.
Recs
LarryRicardo
(99.89)
Submitted: 2/4/2009 1:05:41 AM :
Start Price:
$99.89
TLT Score:
+35.77
Eventually stocks will beat bonds. It is just a matter of time.
Recs
Eversar
(97.92)
Submitted: 1/21/2009 6:29:27 PM :
Start Price:
$107.20
TLT Score:
+45.35
Treasury bubble set to burst
Recs
TMFMattyA
(93.91)
Submitted: 1/10/2009 3:19:57 PM :
Start Price:
$107.01
TLT Score:
+39.68
Look, when investors are willing to expect zero yield from the U.S. government in exchange for U.S. Treasuries, something's out of whack. Would you pay the government a fee (inflation) just to hold onto your money? It's perverse risk aversion that just won't last. Once investors wake up and stop behaving more rationally, expect this bubble to deflate in a hurry.
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