Direxion Daily 30Y B (TMV)

cjlee001 (88.59) Submitted: 11/9/2009 8:11:56 PM : Start Price: $62.26 TMV Score: +12.39

shorting all ultrashorts, bears, and other "leveraged" funds.

ShortUltras (96.06) Submitted: 10/26/2009 6:14:45 PM : Start Price: $61.57 TMV Score: +12.25

Ultra-shorts and Ultra-pros are all bad investments due to daily rebalancing

creek138 (98.81) Submitted: 10/22/2009 9:45:37 PM : Start Price: $53.58 TMV Score: +0.80

Free points and if you're lucky you can short these in real life Just don't over-leverage yourself in these. They're highly volatile in the short term. Trust me from experience. I sold short some of the 3x bears 3 weeks before the bottom. FAZ shot up 300% and I got a margin call twice. Luckily I had enough (just barely) to cover them and overtime profited from it. Just make sure if you do short these, that you have the surplus funds to cover if it spikes 300% to 400%

Wh1sp (99.94) Submitted: 10/13/2009 12:29:42 AM : Start Price: $56.66 TMV Score: +3.96

When considering this pick, consider it in tandem with an under perform call on the TMF. While this may be a rather dangerous play in real life (think Long Term Capital Management) on CAPS I will never be forced to cover my shorts or meet my broker's margin calls, and therefore I can sit in this trade indefinitely and collect my free points

rexlove (96.22) Submitted: 10/9/2009 10:47:18 AM : Start Price: $56.23 TMV Score: -3.79

spear

ttboydxb (98.90) Submitted: 7/22/2009 5:58:35 PM : Start Price: $70.34 TMV Score: -36.65

Did you hear that pop? That was the US Bond bubble bursting....

EruditeInvestor (67.93) Submitted: 7/8/2009 9:35:07 AM : Start Price: $66.48 TMV Score: -42.22

In this ever increasing meddling of the Federal Government i displacing the free market, interest rates (especially long term) are likely to increase driving this ETF higher.

SteriodBear (86.65) Submitted: 6/27/2009 12:12:57 AM : Start Price: $67.40 TMV Score: +37.60

Half-life period of leveraged ETF is inversely proportional to its volatility.

mozartmacphisto (< 20) Submitted: 5/29/2009 2:53:22 PM : Start Price: $72.91 TMV Score: -46.12

Two legs to the uptick in Treasury yields, the unwinding of the fear trade last fall and the inflation/treasury supply trade scheduled for the year. June 10-11 next big test with the 10 and 30 year auctions. Last ones went horribly and started this trend. Now we get an auction every month instead of 4 times a year. Way too much supply

givmeabreak (96.37) Submitted: 5/29/2009 10:50:01 AM : Start Price: $77.17 TMV Score: -49.85

Good entry. Treasuries are a joke to invest in.

cashsage (77.09) Submitted: 5/24/2009 10:09:48 AM : Start Price: $73.13 TMV Score: -50.02

TMV has a too low valuation compared to the weakness of the price of 30-Year US Treasury bonds.

FleaBagger (99.17) Submitted: 5/21/2009 4:12:19 PM : Start Price: $59.88 TMV Score: -34.32

I can't believe this is a 1-star ETF. Yes, 3x leverage is crazy. Yes, the bull/bear pairs of Direxion 3x funds tend to leapfrog each other towards .01 over the long term, most dramatically with FAS and FAZ, both under 10 (from 60 or 70 or so less than 8 mos. ago) as I write this.

What makes TMV different in my view? Well, it is 3x bear of the biggest bubble of the riskiest investment I've ever heard of: the near all-time high of the 30-year U.S. Treasury in the midst of the most inflationary crisis response in human history. No other debtor has the same dramatic power (or the same $10T incentive) to devalue its own interest payments and debt principal, while gullible investors fund its unprecedented borrowing. China and Japan, the 2 biggest buyers of UST's in the first decade of the 21st century, are now ceasing their purchase of US Treasuries. The Federal Reserve has taken up the enormous slack. That means that when the Fed's shell game ends, the U.S. dollar will collapse, and the 30-year bond will crash even further, because of its huge term. There's so much inflation risk in the 30-year bond, it's dizzying. There is no other investment I am so sure will fail, except the leveraged ETF's of the same.

There is some risk that the fund will experience statistically anomalous tracking error, like SRS did, or that Direxion will simply fail. Slightly more remote are the chances that the derivatives market will fail without being bailed out by the government (which would be catastrophic for TMV), or that those short US Treasuries will have their profits seized for being unpatriotic. I think the chances of any of these is tolerably low, and those are the only things that could keep TMV from octupling or better, with distributions subtracted from the cost basis.

If you could borrow shares of TMF (TMV's opposite) to short, that would be a safer trade, but don't hold your breath for shares to come available for shorting. You can do it on CAPS, though.

UltraSuck (97.83) Submitted: 5/11/2009 1:05:38 AM : Start Price: $70.69 TMV Score: +42.72

Because Ultra's Suck