Direxion Daily 30Y B (AMEX:TMV)

treasuries are nuts right now.

I gave up red-thumbing 3x ETF's, because I think that practice undermines CAPS's accuracy, and green-thumbing them is very dumb if you don't have your timing right and keep it short-term. However, Treasury prices have gotten beyond ridiculous, and I think TMV will actually be much higher in spring than it is today.

This is just a middle-aged man's "perspective" thing. For most of my "growing up years", the MINIMUM Passbook Savings account that any kid off the street got was between 5% and 5.5%. To see the 30 Year Treasures at 4.5% just seems silly. I'd like to think at some point Bernanke sells a TON of these to take full advantage of what I consider ridiculously low interest rates for 30 YEARS (!!). If/when that ever happens, TMV will skyrocket.

Huge national debt, rising commodity prices, global economic recovery, historic low interest rates....this is a NO BRAINER !!!!

tmfeldrehed

This ETF moves the opposite of theprice of bonds

trash

This one is so simple, let me just itemize
A. Other nations will catch on to the deflationary risk to the USD (decreased purchasing power) due to monetizing debt.
B. Appetite for low yeild will dwindle.
C. Increased risk for devaluing of USD by removal as reserve currency. (exponencial increase to inflation)

** Bubble created by miss understanding of safe haven. 30 years is now far to long term to count on America's ability to repay debt with "valued" currency. This was a good buy at $50, now is a GREAT buy.

Bond is not in for now

tmfeldrehed

tmfeldrehed

Inflation is coming, got to pay off the Chinese one way or the other. This is one easy way to play the rise in interest rates whenever this economy turns around.

+1 May 10 59 put
-1 May 10 68 call

bond markets

Ultra-shorts and Ultra-pros are all bad investments due to daily rebalancing

When considering this pick, consider it in tandem with an under perform call on the TMF. While this may be a rather dangerous play in real life (think Long Term Capital Management) on CAPS I will never be forced to cover my shorts or meet my broker's margin calls, and therefore I can sit in this trade indefinitely and collect my free points

Half-life period of leveraged ETF is inversely proportional to its volatility.

Two legs to the uptick in Treasury yields, the unwinding of the fear trade last fall and the inflation/treasury supply trade scheduled for the year. June 10-11 next big test with the 10 and 30 year auctions. Last ones went horribly and started this trend. Now we get an auction every month instead of 4 times a year. Way too much supply

Good entry. Treasuries are a joke to invest in.