Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL)

Top, well studied, calculative and conservative management with aggressive but controlled bottom line processes combined with a Harvard business approach.

Housing market is coming back, but not enough to turn the tides...YET!

Housing will continue to get crushed

Insiders are selling and the stock is trading at a premium, especially for a homebuilder!

Buying ANY home-builder for the next several years--even the "best," e.g., TOL or LEN--will be akin to purchasing shares of the world's premier buggy-whip manufacturer in the early 20th Century. There is no upside, and there will be no profit for many,many years--or ever, if they go bankrupt waiting for a sales recovery.

When the country needs housing again (5 years or more) to keep up with population demands, this is one of the few companies that will be ready for it.

TOL admittedly is a bit of a reach at this point, but the reality is the housing market will come back and TOL has been and will be in the future one of the primary beneficiaries. TOL is a strong well managed company and once housing picks up TOL stock will move up. This is a tip of the hat to Peter Lynch who once recommended TOL near the bottom of a housing cycle who points out that for cyclicals their P/E ratio can get very high showing they are having one of their worst times. That is the case now and while I might be a bit early to the party on this one I still this it works.

Bad

following the leader

looking for housing to start recovering in 2012, housing stocks should recover sooner

Interest rates of October to now

Rising rates as the economy recovers will make already expensive real estate even more expensive compressing margins. Demand for housing will lag rising interest rates creating a situation where TOL lacks the ability to control pricing & margins.

Part of XHB

The P/E and the Earnings/Share are both negative the stock has went up over the last year but not anything like the market

will done real well l/t

Are they joking?

I can not see any turn around in housing--existing home sales are slow in my town, and they are selling at very reasonable prices. I see new homes that have been on the market for over a year, and the prices have come wayyyyy down fromlast year.

I don't see the current slide turning around until the spring buying season begins.

I have to call an underfperform on any stock someone chooses to call outperform with "Telechart Scan Multi Moving Averages Convergence" WTF. It sounds like some sort of time machine or force-field generator.

Are you serious? Please tell me no one in the real world invests with a thesis of "Telechart Scan Multi Moving Averages Convergence".

Wait, I take that back. Please invest your real money based on such gibberish. Please be emotional in your investing. Please never invest in stodgy, boring companies which are offered below their intrinsic worth. Please follow alpha and beta into the gamma quadrant. This way I will be left opportunities to make millions.