Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)
Designs, builds, markets & arranges financing for single-family detached & attached homes in luxury residential communities. Also involved in projects building, or converting existing rental apartment buildings into, high-, mid- & low-rise luxury homes.
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Are they joking?
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shorting the pop... housing still has a ways to go (as displayed by extending the first-time homebuyer credit)
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I can not see any turn around in housing--existing home sales are slow in my town, and they are selling at very reasonable prices. I see new homes that have been on the market for over a year, and the prices have come wayyyyy down fromlast year.
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I don't see the current slide turning around until the spring buying season begins.
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I have to call an underfperform on any stock someone chooses to call outperform with "Telechart Scan Multi Moving Averages Convergence" WTF. It sounds like some sort of time machine or force-field generator.
Are you serious? Please tell me no one in the real world invests with a thesis of "Telechart Scan Multi Moving Averages Convergence".
Wait, I take that back. Please invest your real money based on such gibberish. Please be emotional in your investing. Please never invest in stodgy, boring companies which are offered below their intrinsic worth. Please follow alpha and beta into the gamma quadrant. This way I will be left opportunities to make millions.
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Short this before it shorts you.
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This account goes contrarian to bull or bear remarks found in free media. From Bloomberg News seen here entitled "Toll Says Housing Recovery is happening 'Right Now' the CEO of Toll Brothers says the housing recovery underway.
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Turbo Timmy Geithner needs to look up "crowding out effect," especially as it pertains to his treasonous bailouts and the long end of the yield curve.
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The housing industry still has a long way to fall. Tolls' wheel house is mid to upper end mcmansions. Tighter credit is hitting this price range the worst. As the market stabilizes the lower end will recover first, follow at least 2-3 years later by the upper end market. In addition the majority of the markets around the country are way over built. It is still going to take years to clean up inventory levels.
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too many homes now
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The last thing anyone needs is more empty houses. Good luck.
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Can't get a loan, and if you can the market is glutted with great used deals.
Love the company, hate their circumstances. Underperform unfortunately.
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The game is the same, the rules are very different. The reasons to stay away, for now, are obvious.
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If there is one thing we have too much of it is houses. TOL builds and sells houses. With $5.5 billiion in fully-priced housing inventory, how will they sell it all without taking a big loss on their books?
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There are no rich people buying homes anymore. Even wealthy people are retrenching. We are only one year into a two to three year depression. It is too early to get back into the housing stocks, by six months to two years.
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They will go down hard in this terrible economy.
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Going to be a while before people start to buy more luxury homes.
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The housing market is still on the way down, and the numbers for this stock look bad, even for the housing market.
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the local economy in my area is better off than most areas of the country. The two new Toll communities are not selling well, and a neighbor of mine was a foreman who was just laid off by Toll. Inventory of unsold homes in the 500+ price range is high. Many spec homes in this range are having birthdays, and builders are slashing prices to try to move them. As I said, relatively speaking, our local market is in decent shape, can't imagine harder hit areas. Don't see how Toll is going to have earnings in the forseeable future.

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