Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

With the Fed throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the housing problem they will create and artificial bottom in housing prices. Once all the buyers that have been waiting for a bottom will have already missed the bottom and have to pay 1% to 3% more than they originally wanted. And one more thing beware of the crowded short.

The last thing anyone needs is more empty houses. Good luck.

I'll wait to see the full effect of the housing crisis and expect a turn around sometime 2009.

Solid balance sheet, targets the high-income segment of the population, should be well positioned for when the housing cycle booms again. Expectations of a cycle bust are already reflected on the stock price.

Toll Brothers need to do two thing to outperform:
1. DO NOT BUILD ANYMORE HOMES FOR 5++++ YEARS! Seriously, PUT THE HAMMERS DOWN! NO MAS!!!
2. Change your name to Toll Brothers Solar China Fun (tol.pk)

Bear Market

Over corrected. Can take market share from weaker companies.

The analysts' are so blinded by optimism, they won't be able to see the sun.

As continued mortgage defaults flood the market with bargain pre-existing units, new home produces will continue to suffer losses. I expect a number of them will declare bankruptcy over the next year or so as they are stuck with inventory and unable to fund new building.

Seem to be one of the few home builder I would still buy

Everyone wants a luxury house - many will get one. Plus a p/e of 6+

Inventory write downs will be much higher than forecast, especially in Arizona and Florida.

The housing industry still has a long way to fall. Tolls' wheel house is mid to upper end mcmansions. Tighter credit is hitting this price range the worst. As the market stabilizes the lower end will recover first, follow at least 2-3 years later by the upper end market. In addition the majority of the markets around the country are way over built. It is still going to take years to clean up inventory levels.

OBAMA GONNA PAY MY MORTGAGE!!!!

housing is dead

Luxury home building is much less affected by downturns in markets as the wealthy are less affected themselves. Like a drop of water in a puddle for the super-rich. Speaks well for a company that is still floating well in the current shattered market and that will ultimately rise back to profitability faster than the common builder.

This is one of my favorite picks. I look for another Outperform on TOL.

the local economy in my area is better off than most areas of the country. The two new Toll communities are not selling well, and a neighbor of mine was a foreman who was just laid off by Toll. Inventory of unsold homes in the 500+ price range is high. Many spec homes in this range are having birthdays, and builders are slashing prices to try to move them. As I said, relatively speaking, our local market is in decent shape, can't imagine harder hit areas. Don't see how Toll is going to have earnings in the forseeable future.

Only the strong survive