Terra Industries, Inc. (TRA)
The Company is a North American and U.K. producer and marketer of nitrogen products, serving agricultural and industrial markets.
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don't believe in fertilizer stocks
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This co. is owned primarily by financial houses. I am highly suspicious of their accounting records. Much of their profits are due to investing of the common stockholder dollars. I don't think they can sustain that income with the market like it is. Further, their chemical sales will be impacted with a downturn in demand from mfg.
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BROKE DOWN YESTERDAY (TUESDAY 24 JUNE)
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Encountering resistence, will drop for the next couple of weeks before a solid rally. Expect 55$ in 6-8 weeks, go long on Oct 55 Calls
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As of close of business on 12/31/07, this was a 1-star Morningstar stock trading at more than double it's Morningstar fair value.
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An unusual reload after a huge loss. At a certain point, you might as well bank the loss and shoot for a reversal. Please see my blog for my critiques of and alternatives to the current incentive structure that agitates for idiotic gameplay like this, as well as some delectable bonus invective (my favorite recently, a don't-let-the-door-hit-your-ass-on-the-way-out comment from someone with TMF in front of his handle -- tasty!)
My original pitch:
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Short fertilizer on soft-landing demand slowdown, clueless ethanol rally. A huge loser so far, but in CAPS, who care? My ranking is driven by accuracy alone now, so a -1 is the same as this -30. Eventually I may reload, to try capturing more "accuracy" (gag) points on the way back down, but I think I want to lose a few more points on this name first.
What does it tell us that under the current incentive structure I currently have no incentive whatever to have made the "right" call on this stock once I had a negative point locked in?
It tells me the system is broken, but I welcome defenders to reply to this pitch or on my blog.
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up 12% today on speculation and has been on a tear this rally, even though the fundamentals don't justify it. i'm closing my position tomorrow (should have today) and expect this to underperform drastically

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