Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO)

CAPS Rating: 5 out of 5

The Company is an operator of retail farm and ranch stores in the United States. It is focused on supplying the lifestyle needs of recreational farmers and ranchers and of those who enjoy the rural lifestyle, as well as tradesmen and small businesses.

TSCO News and Commentary

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All Players

483 Outperform
36 Underperform
 

All-Star Players

149 Outperform
3 Underperform
 

Wall Street

14 Outperform
2 Underperform
 

Top TSCO Bull/Bear Pitches

The best Bull and Bear pitches based on recency and number of recommendations.

grow76 (99.30)
Submitted January 20, 2007

Love the dog supplies, carhartt jeans and tools galore. I see this co. as a mix between a country store, Home Depot and PetSmart.

TXCattleman (< 20)
Submitted April 25, 2008

I feel that TSC has some serious issues at both the leadership role at headquarters, and at the store manager level. The problem is they are not paying their store managers a competitive wage, and are losing them left and right. Forget about what you… More

TSCO VS S&P 500 (SPY)

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Recent Community Commentary

Read the most recent pitches from players about TSCO.

Recs

0
Member Avatar larvalbug (26.57) Submitted: 6/15/2018 10:21:34 AM : Outperform Start Price: $74.26 TSCO Score: +3.52

TMFLouis

Recs

0
Member Avatar rhallbick (97.09) Submitted: 6/1/2018 10:11:12 AM : Outperform Start Price: $73.17 TSCO Score: +3.52

Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ Global Select: TSCO)

Thesis: Hasn't yet saturated the market with store buildouts, but getting closer. Push toward animal feed and supplies help drive more repeat customers. 2017 earnings per share were $3.31. 2018 should be about $4.10, driven by rising store count, lightly-improving same store sales and gross margins, new oil and gas wealth flowing into their TX, OK and ND markets, and benefits from a much lower income tax rate.
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Tractor Supply (TSCO) was founded in Chicago in 1938 as a mail-order business offering replacement tractor parts to small farmers. The first Tractor Supply Co. retail store opened the very next year in Minot, North Dakota. By March 2018, TSCO operated a total of 1,872 retail stores in 49 states. These include 1700 in the original Tractor Supply Company name or the Del's Feed & Farm Supply brand, which is a 16-store chain acquired in 2005. These two names cater to the rural lifestyle of small or recreational farmers, ranchers, and gardeners, supplying them with a one-stop shopping experience. More than half of their revenue comes from the sale of Livestock and Pet supplies. Their other important categories are replacement parts for agricultural and rural use, hardware and tools, lawn and garden power equipment and other seasonal products, truck and towing products, and clothing and footwear. These stores are located in towns outlying major metropolitan markets and in rural communities.

TSCO acquired the pet supply store chain "Petsense" in 2016, and has expanded that chain into 172 retail stores in 27 states. TSCO also operates the tractorsupply,com and petsense,com e-commerce websites.

TSCO had expanded into Canada in 1966 with 11 stores and then sold those stores off to Birch Hill in 1987. TSCO has now announced plans to close 7 Del's Feed & Farm Supply stores in the northwest US this fall.

TSCO opened 15 new Tractor Supply stores and four Petsense locations in Q1 2018. They see a potential for upwards of 2,500 Tractor Supply locations over time, with the company being on track to open 80 new Tractor stores and 20 new Petsense store locations in 2018.

Q1 2018 revenue and earnings both increased year-over-year (YoY). Comparable-store sales were up 3.7%, fueled by comparable store transaction count growing 3.2%, and average ticket total up 0.5%. In addition, gross margin expanded 36 basis points (bps) to 33.5%. Their Q1 2018 report shows an effective income tax rate of 20.9%, reduced from about 37% in previous years.

TSCO is funded by 40.9% shareholder equity and 59.1% liabilities. Ongoing share repurchase program runs through Dec 31, 2020 and has $700 million authorized and remaining.

TXCO envisions 2018 earnings per share in the band of $3.95-$4.15. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2018 is pegged at $4.09.

Average analysts' one-year price target is $73.22 (range $64.00-$85.00). The highest rated of these analysts is Scot Ciccarelli of RBC Capital and he is at $64.00. The estimated 2018 earnings is less of an issue than what sort of multiple should be applied to it. The income tax benefit is a one-time bump-up for this year that will put YoY earnings growth at about 24%. In 2019, earnings growth is more likely to be about 6%.

Peter Lynch Fair Value is $42.52.
Graham Number (Defensive Fair Value) = $28.99

There are 7.0 million shares sold short (5.75% of float), up 194k from the previous period. There hasn't been any insider buying. The put/call ratio tends to go bearish for their stock price above $60. Hedge fund interest had a recent peak in Q1 2017 and their shares held have been slowly decreasing since then. Institutional holdings peaked in Q2 2017 and are at about 88.3% today, which is on the low end for the last 4 years.

Common shares outstanding:
Apr 29, 2017 - 128,564,140
Apr 28, 2018 - 122,050,289

Cons:
Decades of expansion under a succession of excellent CEOs may have come to an end. At one time, the company was described as having a "family atmosphere", they stood behind their products without question, and if a customer had an issue with a product, the company would do whatever it took to make it right. While corporate headquarters still talks about employee training and providing excellent customer service, actual customer feedback today is not particularly very good. They may be able to keep most of their customers due to other positive factors, but same-store sales should probably be closely monitored.

Price: $73.17 | Annual Dividend: $1.24 | Dividend Yield: 1.69%

Recs

0
Member Avatar TMFRendezvous (89.76) Submitted: 4/20/2018 10:12:16 PM : Outperform Start Price: $60.09 TSCO Score: +24.18

Tractor Supply is the largest consumer farm specialty retailer in the U.S., with more than $7 billion in annual sales. It has strong margins and is committed to returning value to shareholders. They have a large, and strong distribution network, but are in a cyclical industry, right now the industry is down which my present a good time to buy.

Leaderboard

Find the members with the highest scoring picks in TSCO.

Score Leader

youyisi

youyisi (97.45) Score: +957.10

The Score Leader is the player with the highest score across all their picks in TSCO.

Top
Pick
Member Name Member
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
Score Commentary
youyisi 97.45 1/22/2008 Outperform 3Y $6.49 +1,083.19% +126.09% +957.10 0 Comment
ClemInv 96.02 7/8/2008 Outperform 3Y $6.50 +1,081.90% +127.83% +954.07 0 Comment
bl400 74.30 6/26/2008 Outperform 5Y $6.69 +1,047.92% +120.40% +927.52 0 Comment
nacjr 58.37 6/30/2008 Outperform NS $6.74 +1,040.08% +122.47% +917.62 0 Comment
AllanT64 < 20 7/7/2008 Outperform NS $6.73 +1,042.07% +124.70% +917.37 0 Comment
democracynow 88.00 6/27/2008 Outperform 5Y $6.80 +1,029.29% +121.69% +907.60 0 Comment
TechBear 81.75 7/21/2008 Outperform NS $6.88 +1,016.13% +126.50% +889.63 0 Comment
mutualfundtom < 20 7/21/2008 Outperform 1Y $7.02 +994.99% +125.21% +869.78 1 Comment
Keegan07 96.93 7/21/2008 Outperform 5Y $7.02 +994.99% +125.21% +869.78 1 Comment
WallStPwned 80.35 7/21/2008 Outperform NS $7.02 +994.99% +125.21% +869.78 0 Comment

Wall Street

See what the Wall Street professionals think, according to their public statements and filings.

Player Name Player
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
S&P
Gain
Score End Date Commentary
TrackJimCramer 85.46 9/19/2016 Outperform 3W $65.59 +17.12% +29.31% -12.19 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.46 9/8/2016 Underperform 3W $69.38 -2.65% -2.33% +0.32 9/19/2016 @ $67.54 0 Comment
TrackPiperJaff 87.43 7/17/2015 Outperform NS $90.80 -15.39% +30.00% -45.39 0 Comment
TrackDeutscheSec 87.52 1/9/2015 Outperform NS $77.07 -0.32% +33.71% -34.03 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.46 10/23/2014 Outperform 3W $69.70 -0.46% +12.10% -12.56 9/8/2016 @ $69.38 0 Comment
TrackCreditSuiss 90.77 7/10/2014 Outperform NS $55.54 +38.33% +41.36% -3.04 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.46 4/4/2014 Underperform 3W $68.80 +3.20% +4.58% +1.38 10/23/2014 @ $71.00 0 Comment
TrackNorthcoastR 75.53 6/5/2013 Outperform NS $51.11 +50.31% +69.21% -18.91 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.46 3/1/2013 Outperform 3W $51.12 +35.26% +22.54% +12.72 4/4/2014 @ $69.15 0 Comment
TrackUBS 92.13 2/14/2013 Outperform NS $48.53 +58.31% +81.93% -23.62 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.46 12/3/2012 Underperform 3W $44.30 +16.36% +7.54% -8.82 3/1/2013 @ $51.55 0 Comment
TrackJPMorgan 87.18 7/26/2012 Outperform NS $43.60 +76.21% +103.08% -26.87 0 Comment
TrackPoisedTo < 20 4/17/2012 Outperform 5Y $49.08 -18.81% -3.44% -15.37 7/12/2012 @ $39.85 0 Comment
TrackFeltlandCo 86.23 10/20/2011 Outperform NS $32.07 +139.51% +127.27% +12.24 0 Comment
TrackBarclaysCap 88.99 6/7/2011 Outperform NS $27.91 +175.24% +112.94% +62.30 0 Comment
TrackZacks < 20 1/27/2011 Outperform 3M $26.17 +76.16% +6.29% +69.87 11/9/2012 @ $46.10 2 Comments
TrackDeutscheSec 87.52 1/24/2011 Outperform NS $23.26 +185.73% +38.19% +147.54 1/31/2014 @ $66.47 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.46 11/8/2010 Outperform 3W $20.57 +115.75% +15.48% +100.27 12/3/2012 @ $44.39 0 Comment
TrackGoldmanSach 79.96 8/13/2010 Underperform 5Y $15.84 +385.09% +154.23% -230.86 1 Comment
TrackJMP 87.10 4/16/2010 Outperform NS $15.42 +398.04% +128.34% +269.70 0 Comment
TrackZacks < 20 4/13/2010 Outperform 3M $16.61 +36.80% +2.28% +34.52 12/2/2010 @ $22.72 1 Comment
TrackFBRCapitalM 88.22 3/17/2010 Underperform NS $13.62 +463.85% +136.36% -327.49 0 Comment
TrackPiperJaff 87.43 10/23/2009 Underperform NS $12.14 +14.93% +3.03% -11.90 3/1/2010 @ $13.95 0 Comment
TrackJPMorgan 87.18 10/15/2009 Underperform NS $13.30 +33.85% +12.00% -21.85 4/26/2010 @ $17.80 0 Comment
TrackFeltlandCo 86.23 9/1/2009 Outperform NS $11.67 +183.82% +29.97% +153.84 7/21/2011 @ $33.14 0 Comment
TrackWedbush 88.98 3/16/2009 Outperform NS $7.86 +876.82% +264.94% +611.88 0 Comment
TrackZacks < 20 1/8/2009 Underperform 3M $8.23 +102.98% +31.62% -71.36 4/13/2010 @ $16.71 1 Comment
TrackArgus 86.54 12/11/2008 Outperform NS $9.21 +733.84% +216.19% +517.65 0 Comment
TrackWedbush 88.98 7/24/2008 Outperform NS $9.54 -6.48% -30.94% +24.46 12/22/2008 @ $8.92 0 Comment
TrackZacks < 20 7/15/2008 Outperform 3M $7.21 +34.41% +4.60% +29.81 8/1/2008 @ $9.69 1 Comment
TrackUBS 92.13 6/2/2008 Outperform NS $8.87 +24.96% -9.28% +34.25 9/8/2008 @ $11.09 0 Comment
TrackBMOCapital < 20 11/2/2007 Underperform NS $9.97 +70.23% -20.80% -91.03 4/9/2010 @ $16.97 0 Comment
TrackRonBaron 85.14 9/30/2007 Outperform NS $10.57 +626.74% +89.50% +537.24 1 Comment
TrackWedbush 88.98 2/14/2007 Outperform NS $12.18 -20.12% -6.11% -14.01 4/4/2008 @ $9.73 0 Comment
TrackRWBaird 90.72 2/7/2007 Outperform NS $11.98 +3.40% -24.69% +28.09 1/26/2010 @ $12.39 0 Comment
TrackLehmanBros < 20 12/13/2006 Outperform NS $11.62 +323.23% -2.92% +326.15 4/17/2012 @ $49.18 0 Comment
TrackCitigroup 92.85 10/18/2006 Outperform NS $11.47 +569.90% +113.61% +456.29 0 Comment
TrackMatrix < 20 10/5/2006 Underperform NS $12.08 +307.12% +2.36% -304.77 4/17/2012 @ $49.18 0 Comment

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