Tesla Motors Inc Com (NASDAQ:TSLA)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

Caps

How do you think TSLA will perform against the market?

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All Players

2,635 Outperform
973 Underperform
 

All-Star Players

459 Outperform
197 Underperform
 

Wall Street

15 Outperform
5 Underperform
 

Top TSLA Bull/Bear Pitches

The best Bull and Bear pitches based on recency and number of recommendations.

TMFCheesehead (89.48)
Submitted October 01, 2018

Someone on Twitter put it best,: the SEC is better viewed -- in this case -- as an activist investor who was able to get done what others have failed to do: force Musk to get help (and sleep) while focusing on grander visions.

TMFSarahGen (95.69)
Submitted October 05, 2018

An inept and unstable CEO leading a company which was the first mover but will not maintain that edge going forward. The brief window of hope that was the SEC stepping in and insisting on a couple new board members quickly dimmed as they still… More

TSLA VS S&P 500 (SPY)

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Recent Community Commentary

Read the most recent pitches from players about TSLA.

Recs

0
Member Avatar investorpoet2 (78.13) Submitted: 10/15/2018 10:05:11 AM : Outperform Start Price: $259.35 TSLA Score: -0.28

I think the market is split between people that think Tesla is the wave of the future and those that think historical cash usage will continue indefinitely. I think the current stock price totally misses what their earnings and cash flow statements will look like over the next few quarters.

5,000 cars x $50,000 x 52 / 4 = $3.25 billion. So sales of cars more than double. Quarterly gross profit goes from about $600,000 to $1.4 billion. Quarterly G&A expenses are running at $700MM, but $400 million of this is depreciation. Interest expense is $100MM. Tax expenses will run about $60 million if they keep their current pace of R&D. So they will have $1 billion in quarterly cash flow to invest.

So I'm looking at the cash flow before R&D and Capex. It's going to run at $4 billion/year. For a company growing at this rate, a safe multiple is probably 20x. There are still expenses I'm not counting (R&D, depreciation), but they are likely to keep pace with step changes in revenue (5,000 more Model 3's/week, model Y, semi, etc.). So 20x $4 billion is $80 billion. Their current market cap is $44 billion, so their execution is being discounted by the market.

Anyway $80 billion divided by shares outstanding gets you $675/share. Tesla's earnings will look much like Amazon's has. They will invest everything they make in R&D and capex. R&D will keep climbing as an expense as will the depreciation charge. Their profitability will look weak. You have to look through to cash flow and how they are investing. Elon will keep betting his company on the next project. There will always be risk, but man, he could build something amazing.

Recs

1
Member Avatar TMFSarahGen (95.69) Submitted: 10/5/2018 1:27:57 PM : Underperform Start Price: $283.26 TSLA Score: +10.30

An inept and unstable CEO leading a company which was the first mover but will not maintain that edge going forward. The brief window of hope that was the SEC stepping in and insisting on a couple new board members quickly dimmed as they still allowed the aforementioned leader to choose these members. This is a terrible board, which is filled with cheerleaders and 'yes' people; not a board that will protect shareholders.

A few more points all inter-related but worth their own paragraphs: troubled manufacturing, massive turnover in senior executives, dysfunctional work environment with unhappy employees, cash management/funding issues.

And you've heard it here first - the 'savior' of the company, the Model 3 is ugly inside. The people willing to buy this ugly thing will quickly run through. I don't see ongoing demand for the Model 3.

Recs

0
Member Avatar CMFLovePeace (63.85) Submitted: 10/2/2018 12:51:26 PM : Outperform Start Price: $305.77 TSLA Score: -9.54

Your future self will thank you for betting on the rocket man. Greatest entrepreneur of our time.

Leaderboard

Find the members with the highest scoring picks in TSLA.

Score Leader

MizzouFanVan

MizzouFanVan (80.97) Score: +1,425.75

I personally own this stock, and I'm wondering why it is only a 3-star stock in CAPS. Expansion at the NUMMI plant, anyone? Wait for 2012.

Top
Pick
Member Name Member
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
Score Commentary
This player feels very strongly about this pick and has marked it a Top Pick. Top Picks do not affect a player’s score. MizzouFanVan 80.97 7/7/2010 Outperform 5Y $15.38 +1,590.51% +164.76% +1,425.75 0 Comment
BillionairGenius 36.75 7/8/2010 Outperform 5Y $15.87 +1,538.31% +158.81% +1,379.50 0 Comment
iaugratin 88.88 7/8/2010 Outperform 5Y $16.14 +1,510.90% +158.18% +1,352.73 0 Comment
Navykev < 20 7/8/2010 Outperform 5Y $16.14 +1,510.90% +158.18% +1,352.73 1 Comment
charlesdavid < 20 7/6/2010 Outperform 3Y $16.11 +1,513.90% +168.54% +1,345.36 0 Comment
SoaringBob < 20 7/13/2010 Outperform 5Y $16.95 +1,433.93% +152.61% +1,281.33 1 Comment
This player feels very strongly about this pick and has marked it a Top Pick. Top Picks do not affect a player’s score. DSep 64.28 7/12/2010 Outperform 3Y $17.37 +1,396.49% +157.17% +1,239.32 0 Comment
agerson14 < 20 7/9/2010 Outperform NS $17.58 +1,378.95% +157.86% +1,221.09 0 Comment
wagsz 84.26 6/29/2010 Outperform 3Y $17.81 +1,359.53% +163.57% +1,195.95 0 Comment
taxcider 31.60 6/29/2010 Outperform 3W $17.81 +1,359.53% +163.57% +1,195.95 0 Comment

Wall Street

See what the Wall Street professionals think, according to their public statements and filings.

Player Name Player
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
S&P
Gain
Score End Date Commentary
Anonymous331 35.26 10/4/2017 Underperform 5Y $357.06 -16.74% +3.64% +20.38 3/26/2018 @ $297.29 0 Comment
trackberenbergba 41.92 6/13/2017 Outperform NS $367.62 -29.27% +13.23% -42.50 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.74 3/7/2017 Underperform 3W $248.59 +4.59% +16.56% +11.97 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.74 5/18/2016 Outperform 3W $211.17 +17.72% +15.66% +2.06 3/7/2017 @ $248.59 0 Comment
Anonymous331 35.26 4/13/2016 Underperform 5Y $252.40 -23.16% -0.58% +22.58 6/24/2016 @ $193.94 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.74 1/8/2016 Underperform 3W $211.00 +0.08% +6.77% +6.69 5/18/2016 @ $211.17 0 Comment
Anonymous331 35.26 7/21/2015 Underperform 5Y $269.96 -9.81% -1.87% +7.94 8/6/2015 @ $243.48 0 Comment
Anonymous331 35.26 2/4/2015 Underperform 5Y $221.28 -11.12% +3.05% +14.17 3/3/2015 @ $196.68 0 Comment
Anonymous331 35.26 9/15/2014 Underperform 5Y $266.12 -13.66% -4.99% +8.67 10/14/2014 @ $229.76 0 Comment
TrackStifel 90.87 9/2/2014 Outperform NS $275.50 -5.63% +37.46% -43.08 0 Comment
TrackCreditSuiss 89.12 8/14/2014 Outperform NS $261.77 -0.67% +41.55% -42.23 0 Comment
trackpacificcres 49.18 8/6/2014 Outperform NS $238.90 +8.83% +44.55% -35.72 0 Comment
TrackGaryBSmith 90.57 6/6/2014 Outperform 3W $208.17 +24.90% +42.73% -17.83 0 Comment
TrackPiperJaff 84.05 3/5/2014 Outperform NS $255.19 +1.88% +47.16% -45.28 0 Comment
TrackCharlesPayn < 20 11/29/2013 Outperform 3M $127.28 +104.27% +52.62% +51.65 0 Comment
TrackWedbush 85.70 10/15/2013 Outperform NS $185.28 +40.33% +62.01% -21.69 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.74 9/26/2013 Outperform 3W $188.64 +11.85% +13.10% -1.25 1/8/2016 @ $211.00 0 Comment
Anonymous331 35.26 9/17/2013 Underperform 5Y $164.97 -13.98% +3.38% +17.37 11/7/2013 @ $141.90 0 Comment
TrackDeutscheSec 84.30 7/26/2013 Outperform NS $128.14 +102.90% +64.22% +38.68 0 Comment
TrackGlobalEquit < 20 6/17/2013 Outperform NS $103.60 +150.97% +68.15% +82.82 0 Comment
TrackBofASec 92.54 5/14/2013 Underperform NS $94.22 +175.95% +68.78% -107.17 0 Comment
TrackTobinSmith < 20 5/4/2013 Outperform 1Y $54.55 +376.63% +72.09% +304.53 0 Comment
TrackNorthlandSe < 20 3/1/2013 Outperform NS $35.00 +642.86% +82.84% +560.02 0 Comment
TrackWunderlich < 20 7/18/2012 Underperform NS $31.21 +733.07% +103.07% -630.00 0 Comment
TrackLazardCapit 77.20 6/14/2012 Outperform NS $30.18 +395.36% +27.82% +367.54 8/13/2013 @ $149.50 0 Comment
TrackRSGoodFCF < 20 4/19/2012 Outperform 5Y $33.16 -15.83% +0.53% -16.36 7/30/2012 @ $27.91 0 Comment
TrackPoisedTo < 20 3/2/2012 Underperform 5Y $34.40 +655.81% +100.70% -555.11 0 Comment
TrackRSGoodFCF < 20 1/25/2012 Outperform 5Y $27.79 +22.15% +2.70% +19.45 2/22/2012 @ $33.95 0 Comment
TrackNeedham 90.00 1/24/2012 Outperform NS $27.29 +852.73% +110.25% +742.48 0 Comment
TrackWunderlich < 20 1/17/2012 Outperform NS $26.62 +24.46% +5.73% +18.72 7/18/2012 @ $33.13 0 Comment
TrackBarclaysCap 89.29 11/11/2011 Outperform NS $32.12 +378.70% +34.28% +344.43 8/8/2013 @ $153.76 0 Comment
TrackUltraLong < 20 11/3/2011 Underperform NS $30.00 +766.67% +120.52% -646.14 1 Comment
TrackRWBaird 87.10 9/22/2011 Outperform NS $25.64 +914.04% +143.93% +770.11 0 Comment
TrackDoughertyCo < 20 9/16/2010 Outperform NS $22.15 +1,073.81% +145.05% +928.76 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.74 7/13/2010 Underperform 3W $18.14 +939.91% +54.75% -885.16 9/26/2013 @ $188.64 0 Comment

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