Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

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Member Avatar caglassmith (< 20) Submitted: 4/22/2014 6:18:06 PM : Outperform Start Price: $216.33 TSLA Score: -4.36

Best of the pack of electric cars

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Member Avatar FoolyOut (33.71) Submitted: 4/18/2014 11:17:39 AM : Outperform Start Price: $197.08 TSLA Score: +4.26

Product, believers, Elon Musk's brain and lithium ion batteries which will become a boon when musk finishes the factory.

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Member Avatar Aurum (33.80) Submitted: 4/17/2014 10:50:01 PM : Underperform Start Price: $197.08 TSLA Score: -4.26

Simply overvalued.

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Member Avatar Cowpook (< 20) Submitted: 4/16/2014 5:59:03 PM : Outperform Start Price: $199.61 TSLA Score: +2.63

Buy the car ~ not the stock

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Member Avatar CaptainMike (< 20) Submitted: 4/14/2014 3:49:59 PM : Underperform Start Price: $197.97 TSLA Score: -1.79

A negative P/E of over 300; are you kidding me?

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Member Avatar sj95135 (< 20) Submitted: 4/14/2014 11:36:21 AM : Outperform Start Price: $205.23 TSLA Score: -1.70

1. Number of cars sold growing every year
2. They are also going to lease market and less formidable for everyone
3. No idea, How many china can buy.. just like number of apple iPhones sold in china
4. Working on cheaper battery pack

I own TSLA instead of Amazn with High P/E ratio.

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Member Avatar zsilver (41.14) Submitted: 4/11/2014 9:15:49 AM : Outperform Start Price: $203.21 TSLA Score: -1.19

Tesla is here to stay: the model S is the greatest car ever invented!

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Member Avatar JohnCLeven (80.53) Submitted: 4/9/2014 10:25:46 AM : Underperform Start Price: $212.99 TSLA Score: +3.97

I'm a bit late on this one.

TSLA is a visionary company, not doubt about that. However, they are almost universally perceived as so cool, and revolutionary, that the "wisdom" of the crowds has bid the company's stock up to an irrational valuation.

In my opinion, for TSLA stock, at current prices, to translate into attractive investment, I think they'd need to go from $0 profits today, to AT LEAST $1-2 billion in profits over the next 5 years or so.

Mungofitch pointed out that TSLA sells for about $1.4 million per vehicle sold in 2013, and about $904,000 per vehicle using 2014 volume estimates.

This is compared to about $6,000/vehicle for GM, $18,000 for Toyota, and $10,000 for Ford.

The amount of growth that is "baked in" to TSLA's valuation is truly staggering. So staggering, I think, that I think the risk of TSLA NOT meeting those lofty expectations is very high.

I calculated, very roughly, that even if you assume an extremely very rosy 10% net margin (2-3x that of F or GM) TSLA's would need to increase revenue by about 500%-1000% in the next 5 years or so to even begin to justify the current valuation as reasonable. In a scenario where TSLA's future margins are more "typical" of the auto industry, they'd need to increase revenue by 1000%-2000% in the next 5 years or so.

And, let's not forget, the auto industry is damn competitive, and most auto manufacturers do not make attractive returns on capital and equity over the long-term.

Could TSLA sell enough cars to justify the current valuation? Sure, ofcourse they MIGHT.

But how likely is it that they will NOT meet these sky-high expectations baked into the stock price? Very likely in my view.

Therefore, I expect TSLA will under perform the market at from the current price.

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Member Avatar GuitarString (< 20) Submitted: 4/7/2014 4:31:55 PM : Outperform Start Price: $210.05 TSLA Score: -3.45

Seems like Tesla has brilliant leadership and its innovative products have relevance for our need to change the way we have been consuming fossil fuels. I am inspired by Elon Musk's multifaceted approach: solar, electric cars, batteries, space.

Financially, I think Tesla has wisely started with funding the high end cars. If $40,000 cars that get at least 200-mile range can come out in the next few years, I think Tesla will outperform the market over the next 5 years.

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Member Avatar OKwarrior (47.81) Submitted: 4/6/2014 1:12:58 AM : Underperform Start Price: $205.81 TSLA Score: +0.49

Still priced way too high. How long will investors pay this much for a stock that won't earn more than a dollar share for another 2 years?

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Member Avatar VoodooSaviour (< 20) Submitted: 4/5/2014 7:50:34 PM : Underperform Start Price: $205.81 TSLA Score: +0.49

Too expensive but interesting

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Member Avatar mlarms (47.91) Submitted: 4/4/2014 10:29:03 PM : Underperform Start Price: $205.81 TSLA Score: +0.49

overvalued

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Member Avatar dou2ble (43.80) Submitted: 4/3/2014 2:28:18 PM : Outperform Start Price: $223.68 TSLA Score: -7.22

Once the cost of their batteries goes down in the next couple years it'll be cheaper to produce cars and their revenue will go up.

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Member Avatar butters83 (53.88) Submitted: 4/2/2014 11:45:27 AM : Outperform Start Price: $223.35 TSLA Score: -6.90

When you create the market you earn the first mover advantage, which allows you to set the frame for the technology. Eventually this market will be much larger than it is today. The technology will improve allowing Tesla to make more efficient batteries. Look for Tesla batteries to power new technology across industries. The growth potential here is higher than what has already been factored into the stock price.

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Member Avatar gmoney (< 20) Submitted: 3/30/2014 7:51:55 PM : Outperform Start Price: $216.50 TSLA Score: -5.05

He is silicon valley and modeled to be like Steve Jobs. Marketing and perfection of product can change the world

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Member Avatar ENFJ (< 20) Submitted: 3/24/2014 10:34:04 PM : Outperform Start Price: $224.14 TSLA Score: -8.47

How deep do we need to drill before we understand that oil is limited? Oil companies are drilling in more and more difficult locations, why? Electric cars... Edison is about to rise from the dead.

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Member Avatar whereyat (< 20) Submitted: 3/18/2014 7:10:55 PM : Outperform Start Price: $241.39 TSLA Score: -14.35

Momentum and "green" for eco-minded folks in populated areas where most people live.

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Member Avatar moonlightsail (25.73) Submitted: 3/18/2014 12:16:28 PM : Outperform Start Price: $237.80 TSLA Score: -13.20

Innovative and potential leader for the future of the car industry.

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Member Avatar wmichaelm (< 20) Submitted: 3/17/2014 3:12:05 PM : Outperform Start Price: $235.70 TSLA Score: -12.88

Meets FOOL requirements first. Second, the value TSLA offers is not totally about dollars. We have to believe that a solution for the future exists now. Bottom line I think a lot of the stock value today reflects the future payoff.

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Member Avatar tjbellandi (52.92) Submitted: 3/17/2014 10:50:06 AM : Outperform Start Price: $229.42 TSLA Score: -10.00

Unfettered growth in an emerging market. New sales model without dealers will hurt in a few states (TX, NJ) but will only lead to direct pricing and better relationships with customers.

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