Tesoro Corp (NYSE:TSO)
An independent petroleum refiners and marketers in the US with two operating segments: refining crude oil and selling refined products in bulk and wholesale markets and selling motor fuels and convenience products in the retail market.
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I'm giving this a rare (for me) green ckeck. The market overreacted to some technical and temporary business conditions that will be soon forgotten when they refine that black gold and Texas Tea.
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screens
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piotroski screen
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value stock
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Current P/E ratio (forward) is 6.1. At some point the stock price will reflect its value...
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low PEG, strong price uptrend
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crack spread is widening
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FCF Valuation $43 conservative est.
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Trendspotter
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Piotroski score.
I wouldn't short this in real life, mostly because of the P/B ratio.
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im a chartist
0.22x debt/assets
0.63x debt/equity
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crack spreads are spiking, I feel this sector has room to run over the short term. Less downside at these prices.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CRK321M1%3AIND
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Picking up another refiner on the cheap, they are practically giving these things away today! As I've stated many times the past 6 months, you really can't go wrong buying into the refining sector right now. Things are down and people absolutely hate refiners right now, and you really can't blame them. This whole sector has been loosing massive amounts of money the past 1-2 yrs, crack spreads have not been kind to them lately and the stock price certainly shows it. (For those not familiar with crack spreads, see this blog for a better understanding: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=219753&t=01002756778892789413).
However, the thing to remember with refiners, is that they may be cyclical in nature, but when they are up, they're up big! They may be loosing money at a high rate now, but this will not continue forever. Eventually they will return to the mega cash machines that they can be.
TSO is priced disgustingly cheap currently with a nice P/B of 0.51 (yes!) and a forward 2011 P/E of 6.95 (super yes!). I don't expect this to double overnight and suddenly resume their EPS of 2-5 (which is more customary), but now is a nice entry point to begin building a position and wait out the tough times. You won't be disappointed.
As with several of the other refiners, there is a significant amount of debt here and I wouldn't rank TSO as my top refiner by any means. But come on, how can you pass up this opportunity!
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Whoever thinks oil will be replaced soon needs their head checked. Tesoro is profitable even in tough economic times. At a book value of around $20/share this is a steal because their book value isn't being eroded by losses.
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TSO, in Consolidation. Expect this industries to Outperform the indexes when the economy turns.
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i don't know
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TSO's assets are all very valuable refineries and C stores. Most are located in the west, and sepcially CA. Replacemnet value is roughly ten times its current stock price indicates. There is no chance of TSO running into financial problems. Unless people start riding horses to work, this is tremendous value. Buy Buy Buy.
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oversold
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The demand for petroleum refineries will soon return. Since very little
capacity is being added in the USA, gasoline and diesel costs may approach new highs.
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If the economy dips back down ---> Price of crude drops ---> TSO wins
If the economy stabalizes --> Demand for gasoline increases ---> TSO wins
There's also the chance of a Gulf coast hurricane wrecking havoc on the crude supply chain, increasing the price of gasoline --> TSO wins
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