+ Watch TSRX
on My Watchlist
smart upward pick
Green thumb for good PH3 results and an eventual partnership after data.
Few available drugs to treat MRSA
Chart play. Bottoming out.
After I entered my last underperform pitch on Trius, a pumper screeched that the FDA was funding the company's trials and shepherding torezolid through the development and approval process. I've seen some distorted opinions about a company's prospects before, but that was one of the most amusing. In the spirit of that nameless pumper, I've come up with some new arguments to support my green thumb on Trius.Torezolid is not only active against MRSA, but also against zombies and werewolves.Trius has licensed torezolid to extraterrestrial civilizations.When Trius completes a dilutive financing, their share count goes down.The FDA will submit an application to Trius to be allowed the opportunity to approve torezolid.Trius's phase III trial of torezolid is being funded by the Vatican and the Daughters of the American Revolution.Trius is ... the most interesting stock in the world.
The bullet is.1)Lead drug in Phase 3 is an improved version of the market leading antibiotic to fight resistant staph infections. Phase 3 data expected early 2012. Two trials underway both received FDA SPA. Which is basically a fast track for approvals conditional upon the trial meeting its endpoints.2)Cash on hand is sufficient to complete Phase 3 trial.3)Asia/Japan marketing rights sold to Bayer for $25 upfront + $69 M in milestone payments + 25% of all development costs going forward + 100% of asian development costs + "double digit royalty"4)Drug is an improved version of a top tier antibiotic targeted MRSA. Major competitors are Zyvox (PFE) and Cubicin (CBST) with about $600M annual each.5)Current valuation = $150M - cash = $100 M for enterprise. Assume peak revenue = $750M with 20% Net Inc. = $150 M annual income at peak. Even assuming a 50% risk of failure for the phase 3. That still looks good.6)Near term upside catalysts include: a)signing a European marketing deal, b)signing a US marketing deal, c)acquisition7)Near term downside catalysts include: None8)Basically, MRSA doesn't care what credit rating the US has.
Trius is the definition of potential growth. The current management started the company and a few of them have phd's. The company has 0 debt as well as numerous, and continuing, grants with the federal government. Also, the FDA has rushed an approval on phase 3 trials of their current "superdrug" that battles bacterias like mrsa faster then pfizers leading drug. Essentially. this company will save lives, and doesn't rely on the market for growth.
Market cap $100mil., current drug on market generates sales over $1bn p.a...room for 500% gain even before FDA decision. Conservative target $8....
BATS data provided in real-time. NYSE, NASDAQ and NYSEMKT data delayed 15 minutes.
Real-Time prices provided by BATS. Market data provided by Interactive Data.
Company fundamental data provided by Morningstar. Earnings Estimates, Analyst Ratings and Key Statistics provided by Zacks.
SEC Filings and Insider Transactions provided by Edgar Online.
Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions. Terms & Conditions