Transition Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:TTHI)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

Results 1 - 12 of 12

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Member Avatar TSIF (99.97) Submitted: 8/7/2015 2:34:02 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.02 TTHI Score: +12.53

Taking a page from zzlangerhan and superstar playbook. Appreciating their anticipating the Alzheimer drug, but still pointing out the rest of the "cupboard"...many times the smaller cap are one trick pony's, but with Lily as aggressive as they are there might be more than enough to feed the mice left.....spec play...

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Member Avatar superstar (99.64) Submitted: 6/24/2015 11:59:42 AM : Outperform Start Price: $2.53 TTHI Score: -7.01

News out today was actually predictable on ELND005, in my opinion. I consider TTHI a very strong buy due to the phase II trial of GLP agonist peptide TT-401 for type II diabetes. Huge upside potential blockbuster here, and topline results due later this year. I'm always very skeptical of neuropsychiatric Alzheimer's drugs, (when will investors learn-- avoid) but I'm extremely bullish on its diabetes candidate. Will the Baker Brothers double down on their share count now, probably, it wouldn't surprise me. A very strong buy opportunity here in my opinion.

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.81) Submitted: 5/28/2015 12:49:46 AM : Outperform Start Price: $7.25 TTHI Score: -62.07

Transition has been disappointing their long-term believers for years with glacially slow progression of development of Alzheimer's drug scyllo-inositol, also known as ELND005 and AZD-103. Along the way, the two higher dosage groups of a phase II trial of scyllo-inositol for cognitive and functional effects of Alzheimer's were discontinued due to increased mortality. That trial, AD201, also failed to show any beneficial effect in the remaining lowest dosage group although Transition and partner Elan announced plans to proceed with a phase III trial. That phase III trial has never materialized, and instead the companies initiated the Harmony AD phase II trial of scyllo-inositol for Alzheimer's agitation. Despite the apparent lowering of the horizon of scyllo-inositol from a disease-modifying drug to a sedative, this approach seems to have worked extremely well for Avanir which was eventually bought out at a high premium, and Acadia which enjoys a four billion dollar valuation. Topline data from Harmony AD will be announced in early summer of this year, nearly three years after the trial was initiated.

Some other travails of scyllo-inositol over the years have included the abrupt termination of the phase II trial of ELND005 for bipolar disorder last year "for business reasons" and the decision by Perrigo to return the rights to the drug subsequent to their acquisition of Elan. Hence my choice to refer to the drug as scyllo-inositol; it won't remain ELND005 unless Harmony AD fails. Throughout all this, Transition's share price has had its ups and downs but the market cap has never cracked 300M and the trading volumes have remained remarkably low.

Harmony AD may have cruised to completion without much interest from the biopharma trading community had it not been for the surprising appearance of the Baker Brothers in the most recent 13F filing. The 769K shares they picked up was one of their largest purchases for a new holding, although still a very small percentage of their overall portfolio. Nevertheless, the Baker Brothers track record of success and especially their recent surprising and outsized success with Synageva have drawn a lot of new attention to the company as the catalyst approaches. Is Transition just a lotto play for the Bakers or have their erudite noses smelled out success where Perrigo saw only an albatross?

After scyllo-inositol, Transition's cupboard is far from bare. Partner Lilly quickly completed enrollment in a phase II trial of GLP agonist peptide TT-401 for type II diabetes and obesity, and topline data is expected in Q4 2015. Transition has also licensed a SARM from Lilly for low upfront costs, which they have christened TT-701 and plan to initiate a clinical trial for androgen deficiency in the near future.

After some dizzying volatility in late April and early May, the stock has shown strong positive momentum in the last few sessions. For those who can't stomach the impending Harmony AD binary catalyst, a safer alternative might be to pick up the stock on an overreaction to trial failure for a run into TT-401 data towards the end of the year.

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Member Avatar stratigeni (84.80) Submitted: 8/22/2013 10:27:00 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.09 TTHI Score: -63.68

Because as the baby boomers grow older, the need for "alternative" medical therapy will grow with them. Therefore this stock will outperform.

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Member Avatar whoodatstockhot (95.00) Submitted: 7/5/2013 10:50:48 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.09 TTHI Score: -50.27

zz pick, plus nice technical entry, long-term fantastic prospects for a 100% return, but will it take a week, month, or year? Time will tell

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Member Avatar technlogic (< 20) Submitted: 7/2/2011 2:48:47 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.15 TTHI Score: -76.69

falling wedge

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Member Avatar gravmic (92.60) Submitted: 5/16/2011 3:37:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.16 TTHI Score: -77.52

magic formula

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Member Avatar valuefocusgroup (28.81) Submitted: 4/4/2011 11:19:28 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.29 TTHI Score: -95.59

7.93 price/earnings, 1.95 price/book, debt/equity of zero, Return on Invested Capital (TTM) of 29.91, biopharmaceutical company based in Canada.

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Member Avatar dtannen (< 20) Submitted: 10/26/2010 6:26:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.95 TTHI Score: -91.58

ELND-005 should get some clarity within the next few months. Go long here for the big gain.

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Member Avatar arboretum (28.69) Submitted: 10/4/2009 11:41:58 PM : Underperform Start Price: $7.80 TTHI Score: +160.59

ultralong plus recent chart...

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Member Avatar mgj1954 (< 20) Submitted: 5/17/2008 11:48:00 AM : Outperform Start Price: $11.96 TTHI Score: -122.60

gut feeling

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Member Avatar godivatruffles6 (< 20) Submitted: 3/25/2008 7:02:40 PM : Outperform Start Price: $11.25 TTHI Score: -130.20



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