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I find antibiotic developers very hard to value on fundamentals. Some pop, some fizzle, and I don't always see the rationale. Lately though, there's been a lot more pop than fizzle with Cubist on the rise and their subsequent takeouts of Trius and Optimer. Cempra and Durata have been showing strength as well.Tetraphase has been left out of the 2013 biopharma IPO boom, and as of today their market cap is an anemic 165M with 78M of IPO cash in the kitty. Traders seem to be thinking short-term these days as biopharmas hit new highs across all ranges of market cap, and Tetraphase won't be coughing up phase III data until 2015. Because of unpredictable patterns of emerging resistance, commercial value of new antibiotics for multi-drug resistant organisms is difficult to predict. I'd probably lose interest in Tetraphase at a cap above 300M, but with an enterprise value of about 100M it's priced too competitively to ignore.
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