Under Armour, Inc. (UA)

UA had a good brand a few years ago but over time I've seen people ignoring it for the cheaper, equally comfortable cloths of other brands.
Its high "quality" gear that people don't seem to care more for over other brands.

Wrap up: I just haven't seen people take to the brand more then when it was released and it was the hype.

I don't think their brand has long term differentiation.

Under Armour is a line of extremely expensive clothes that no one can afford in this recession much less any time else. There is no need for the products they manufacture. They have had terrible earnings calls and have continued to depress their shareholderse. The stocks low volume says it all. Buy Gap or some other clothing line that people actually buy.

Under Armour is a very competitive company that has taken a strong hold in the athletic apparel arena. My prediction however, is this is stock will pull back allowing you take advantage of the bear trend that is currently in and following as the trend reverses.

With .32 per year earnings and even an outrageous 20X PE this stock is "worth" 6.40 per share. It's at 25.00 as of this writing. Good luck with that as the market start their very overdue 15-20% decline.
Present PE is 80. Hold at your own risk.

Too expensive. Liked it in the mid-upper teens

Bought at 20.02

I don"t see a home for this market over the next 5 years/

Best brand now, doubt it will have lasting brand power. Predict it will be a fad in the long term

It's

Retail!

Inventories only 8% this year. Low consumer demand.

Very overvalued given the economic climate and pending downward pressure on high-priced, specialty retail.

Slowing discretionary spending, slowing economy

What is UA's moat? Will specialty performance shoes be a large enough market to propel significant profits? Help me understand as I would like to be on the positive side with this one.

In this market why buy $40 tee shirts?

Their products are innovative, but not exclusive. Copycat products for discount retailers will cut into their profits. People won't always pay a premium to buy a name label, when a cheaper copy will work just as well.

UA already owns a 75% share of the performance apparel market, something it's been able to achieve mainly due to lack of competition. Competition is heating up now though, and UA has no material or process patents to protect its products from a deep-pocketed competitor like Nike or Adidas. Despite falling hard, the stock still carries a P/E north of $30. In a poor consumer environment, $45 T-shirts are one of the first things consumers will do without.

Low moat, increasing competition from Nike and other apparel retailers, trying to cater to teens and other's frequently changing fashion tastes, and high gas and food prices will force consumers to cut back on such items as "performance apparel". Stay away from this one for the long-term, though it may get a short time bump from the rebate checks.

This stock is flying a bit high right now with a cash strapped and fickle consumer. It has a 34 P/E which means it cut really get cut down. 60% short interest tells me that other people think the same.

That said, the earning estimates for next quarter are set extremely low (believe less than a penny) and if they surprise to the upside with that amount of short interest could light it off.

So, good enough for a red thumb in CAPS, not brave enough to short in the real world right now. If they come in inline In July, I might consider a real world short as the next Q earnings estimate is high and the tax rebates will be spent up by then.