ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (AMEX:UBT)
Seeks investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index for a single day.
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Bullish for now.
Recs
Will lose tracking accuracy if held more than 1 day, so definitely will underperform in the long run. No brainer.
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When everyone tells you to be in bonds, that means it is time to get out of bonds. Treasuries will probably do ok until operation twist is over around the end of Q2 2012 and then they will fall off.
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the market will perform well and wealth will transfer from bonds into stocks over the next 5 years
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With the coming end of QE2's support of the markets and the spectre of rising interest rates, treasuries are due for an extended fall. These short-timer daily-balanced ETFs come with an extra advantage on the short-side - they can still lose value even if the general trend is up.
Recs
U.S. Treasuries are currently trading at record high prices. The main way those prices would increase further would be a further flight to safety or a further decline in interest rates. Interest rates cannot fall further. The flight to safety seems highly unlikely given the sluggish growth and budget problems, especially when U.S. assets are compared with the high growth, increasingly safe and liquid emerging market assets they compete with for investment dollars.
Recs
Nowhere to go but down. I don't believe we'll see interest rates rise until mid 2011, but this whole thing seems bubblish to me.
Plus, since this is an Ultra, we have the added benefit of contango working against it.
Recs
bridgeboy
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