United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (AMEX:UNG)

Limited Natural Resources!

OK, I am a Johnny-Come-Lately with this one.

Fracking is causing an enormous supply gut here in the US. It will be quite awhile before demand catches up. That means low prices as far as the eye can see.

In addition, because this ETF trades futures it cannot track the actual price of natural gas. Rather, it will have to trade out of futures when they are near, and into futures that are farther out. Contango can kill their returns.

This one I've bought in real-life, yesterday 2/1/12. My investment thesis: though there is a current oversupply of Nat Gas, our U.S. producers, like CHK (love that one and own it too) are now striving to sell gas overseas to higher-paying, high-margin, foreign markets. That's going to help lower the glut that has been partially due to oversupply, a lack of utilization by truck fleets, passenger cars, you name it, (btw, don't ever rely on the U.S. gov't passing a bill in order for your investment to work, because they might just not do it and your thesis then circles the drain while mired in Washington's un-ending gridlock. There are too many other good investments that don't require governmental invtervention, so seek those out first). And we don't need to rely on the gov't here. So this Winter was mild. Big deal. I'm going out on a limb here - I think the cold weather will eventually be back, don't you? Plus, it's always cold in some part of the world, Earth's rotational axis and such being as it is - I didn't go out too far on this limb either. No doubt, Nat. Gas is going to be used for a lot more than heating, but we can make money on it before it is greatly adopted for vehicles, etc. So, producers are cutting back their production, whilst negotiating sales overseas. That will help turn the tide and raise the value of gas. Furthermore, commodities are best bought when they are ice cold, completely un-sexy. Could UNG be much colder? (pun intended, it's hot, its gas, come on.) No, it's in a multi-year low, a malaise that will require aforementioned supply to unwind a bit. However, I'm not brilliant enough to call the absolute "bottom," of a commodity (please reply here if you are that one megaminded person). However, pull the trigger now and wait for the investment to blossom. How very Foolish.

Gas is cheap on warm winter. Cyclical commodity that is close to the bottom. Might go even lower, but at some point will start moving up

Yep, a natural gas fund. I expect a slow uptick into the summer. Then afterwords it should pick up the pace a little bit. If there's a combined increase in housing that the market anticipates, we could see it do more than mearly pick up the pace.

President is pushing for cleaner energy, my favorites are LNG and UNG.

Natural Gas has been beaten down so much that drillers are suspending operation. Time to buy.

Contango is not your friend if you're long this fund. In fact, it will steadily bleed you to death.

Electricity production is slowly turning to natural gas over coal in the effort to be cleaner. This will ultimately play out.

Abundant supply of nat gas and contango, help enusure this ETF will not outperform S&P500.

This dog don't hunt

Most commodity-tracking ETFs are garbage that get eaten away by contango as they flip their contracts.

Deej

I do think it will outperform, but not by much. There is so, so much supply. Also, like many commodity based ETF products, it does suffer from contango. I learned this the hard way during 2009 when I bought shares of USO. Eventually, I made a profit, but due to contango issues it failed to track the underlying index accurately. EIA forecasts are predicting slightly higher prices for NatGas for 2012 -I think around 20%. Will this be reflected in the share price of UNG? We'll see.

This Fund is trash there are so many better ways to play natural gas for the upcoming colder then average winter. Plus management is weak and UNG wont see as much of a bump for changes in NG pricing.

Despite "commodities" and all that, this fund is ALSO destined to go to zero (like FAZ, TZA, VXX, etc) not because of leverage, but because of contango. If you want natural gas exposure, buy some futures or better yet, a refiner. Otherwise, this fund will not work except in the most extreme of nat gas rallies (and even then probably won't reach initial price).

Technicals look good

As we convert from an oil based economy to one based on renewable resources, Nat Gas, will be there in the interim to fill the gap. Not a "forever" fuel but a great stop gap that I believe will rise once demand catches in the next 5 years or so. As infrastructure for Nat Gas and CNG fueled cars increases so will the demand.

long term hold ... has been bottoming for many months.

It is the destiny of UNG to underperform the market.