Ultra Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:UPL)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

An independent oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and natural gas properties.

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Member Avatar NHWeston102 (< 20) Submitted: 2/11/2016 3:47:47 PM : Underperform Start Price: $0.98 UPL Score: +40.29

Ow...ow...ow...ow...ow...ow...ow...

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Member Avatar jpmgator06 (95.69) Submitted: 12/19/2015 7:52:17 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.35 UPL Score: -67.10

Energy bottom

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Member Avatar srockaz (< 20) Submitted: 12/18/2015 5:24:08 PM : Underperform Start Price: $2.35 UPL Score: +67.10

Falling Nat Gas prices, no hedges, debt re-determination coming up. soon

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Member Avatar MKArch (99.66) Submitted: 10/30/2015 4:08:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.49 UPL Score: -78.58

While I'm not into gaming CAPS normally this one was too tempting. My last green thumb was at ~$14 and while I still think that pick would have been a big winner I decided to close out and re-up in the $5-$6 range to take advantage of some irrational panic as nat gas is set to set a new storage record even though it will only constitute a 5% or so increase from the 5 year average storage level.

In regard to UPL specifically, they been beaten down worse than the rest of the sector due to a high debt load. They announced an imminent asset sale yesterday that will take care of the possibility they trip a covenant. During the previous cc they spoke about the possibility of doing an asset sale large enough to incorporate a stock buy back as their stock was depressed more than the asset market. Their stock has only gotten more depressed since then, I like the idea of buying back at fire sale prices to offset having to sell assets in a buyers market. I couldn't understand why Mr. Market didn't get this yesterday but up 15% mid day today on more than double normal volume appears to be sign Mr. Market is starting to figure this out.

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Member Avatar LovinMe (27.79) Submitted: 7/16/2015 12:37:09 AM : Outperform Start Price: $10.56 UPL Score: -82.40

Contrarian and speculative play.

Considering the world runs on gas and will for some time, I like this play. Only long term downfall would be global recessions including China, UK or USA.

If I had to be a crystal ball I'd say USA will most likely avoid any issues til our next housing bubble (in the making, to blow in about 10 years), China will push past this dip and crash in 3-6 years, and UK will continue to dribble drabble around with their awful socialized systems.

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Member Avatar racoveanul (72.67) Submitted: 6/28/2015 5:09:46 AM : Outperform Start Price: $13.07 UPL Score: -85.11

ULTRA PETRO CP, ticker UPL, has a TTM ROE calculated by Zacks of 339,54%. It's one of my LONG picks.

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Member Avatar nania (40.24) Submitted: 6/22/2015 1:01:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $13.91 UPL Score: -83.75

Another cheap energy stock. You should be able to guess that I like this sector.

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Member Avatar tad40 (99.62) Submitted: 4/16/2015 9:25:01 AM : Outperform Start Price: $16.72 UPL Score: -85.27

Valuation

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Member Avatar christophphersen (< 20) Submitted: 2/2/2015 6:22:38 AM : Outperform Start Price: $12.96 UPL Score: -88.66

It is undervalued. Morningstar fair value is $32 per share. They recently diversified into oil and then saw oil price drop by half. In hindsight an unfortunate timing, but they still make money on the deal. Cost of production is < $15 per barrel and they have some new production techniques that could cut that value significantly. Natural Gas is stil more than 90% of revenue. They are a low-cost producer.

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Member Avatar rbitrage (96.55) Submitted: 1/5/2015 7:33:51 PM : Underperform Start Price: $12.51 UPL Score: +87.55

When you are the high-cost producer and price of your commodity halves, then you start having problems.

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Member Avatar ABigelow (61.69) Submitted: 1/1/2015 1:58:13 AM : Outperform Start Price: $13.08 UPL Score: -85.84

Getting in low in this gas price dive. Once the price of gas and natgas turn around all these depressed oil and gas companies will return to pre-plunge prices. Think you could be a winner with just about any gas company at this point so long as they are structured to weather the storm. UPL is a low cost producer and in great position to bounce right back.

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Member Avatar JCLscapXperiment (99.37) Submitted: 12/14/2014 7:15:03 PM : Underperform Start Price: $14.91 UPL Score: +88.37

Jan 17 Put $2.05, $10

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Member Avatar kannankeril (64.41) Submitted: 12/14/2014 2:00:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $14.47 UPL Score: -88.25

Ultra Petroleum Corp. has been one of my favorite stocks in recent years. This company is one of the lowest-cost producers of natural gas and it price was rising until the oil prices crashed.

I have owned these shares for a while. The recent oil price dive has pulled the price of UPL along with it. But, the point that puzzles me is that UPL is mostly a natural gas company (90% gas, 10% oil) and natural gas prices are not falling. On the contrary, they have been rising.

So I am wondering why UPL stock has been down nearly 50% in value from a high of $31 to below $15 currently.

If you compare the price change relative to the price of a basket of oil & gas firms held in Vanguard Energy ETF. Logic would state that UPL's price would fall by a lesser margin that the average price of oil companies in general. In actuality, UPL has fallen about 40% while VDE has fallen by 20%.

The dip in prices for both started the same time as oil prices started their down trend, strongly suggesting that the cause for both are the same.

I am jumping in at this point and surfing the bear wave all the way to the bottom.

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Member Avatar Cabzx (53.43) Submitted: 8/17/2014 12:32:17 PM : Underperform Start Price: $24.59 UPL Score: +92.39

Negative equity, run away from this.

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Member Avatar FTownBryan (< 20) Submitted: 7/23/2014 12:45:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $24.63 UPL Score: -91.61

Recent pullback a good buying opportunity. Continuned low rig counts in gas rich plays should temper supply growth. Growth through export markets and continued closures of coal fired demand should make gas the marginal fuel on many grids in the next 3-4 years. This secular trend will serve to amplify the coming cyclical rebound. This will be sustain a high market price for three-four years. Must be patient if the stock moves sideways for a couple years while it plays out.

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Member Avatar tequiejoe (< 20) Submitted: 6/25/2014 2:04:20 PM : Outperform Start Price: $29.35 UPL Score: -93.47

GOOD MEASURE ; BY FOOL !

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Member Avatar bob282 (< 20) Submitted: 6/12/2014 2:52:47 PM : Outperform Start Price: $28.58 UPL Score: -94.38

best metrics in the industry

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Member Avatar swowens2008 (27.07) Submitted: 5/22/2014 12:45:15 AM : Outperform Start Price: $27.29 UPL Score: -96.53

upgrade

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Member Avatar llturner103 (42.43) Submitted: 9/4/2013 2:05:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $20.63 UPL Score: -109.67

Natural gas will boost stock long term. Will benefit from demand for domestic energy use.

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