Ultra Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:UPL)

CAPS Rating: 4 out of 5

An independent oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and natural gas properties.

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Member Avatar JCLscapXperiment (36.98) Submitted: 12/14/2014 7:15:03 PM : Underperform Start Price: $14.91 UPL Score: +0.37

Jan 17 Put $2.05, $10

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Member Avatar kannankeril (72.48) Submitted: 12/14/2014 2:00:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $14.47 UPL Score: +2.66

Ultra Petroleum Corp. has been one of my favorite stocks in recent years. This company is one of the lowest-cost producers of natural gas and it price was rising until the oil prices crashed.

I have owned these shares for a while. The recent oil price dive has pulled the price of UPL along with it. But, the point that puzzles me is that UPL is mostly a natural gas company (90% gas, 10% oil) and natural gas prices are not falling. On the contrary, they have been rising.

So I am wondering why UPL stock has been down nearly 50% in value from a high of $31 to below $15 currently.

If you compare the price change relative to the price of a basket of oil & gas firms held in Vanguard Energy ETF. Logic would state that UPL's price would fall by a lesser margin that the average price of oil companies in general. In actuality, UPL has fallen about 40% while VDE has fallen by 20%.

The dip in prices for both started the same time as oil prices started their down trend, strongly suggesting that the cause for both are the same.

I am jumping in at this point and surfing the bear wave all the way to the bottom.

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Member Avatar pchop12316 (68.02) Submitted: 12/10/2014 12:03:50 PM : Underperform Start Price: $15.02 UPL Score: +0.17

not in the near term

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Member Avatar Cabzx (54.11) Submitted: 8/17/2014 12:32:17 PM : Underperform Start Price: $24.59 UPL Score: +42.24

Negative equity, run away from this.

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Member Avatar FTownBryan (23.36) Submitted: 7/23/2014 12:45:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $24.63 UPL Score: -41.49

Recent pullback a good buying opportunity. Continuned low rig counts in gas rich plays should temper supply growth. Growth through export markets and continued closures of coal fired demand should make gas the marginal fuel on many grids in the next 3-4 years. This secular trend will serve to amplify the coming cyclical rebound. This will be sustain a high market price for three-four years. Must be patient if the stock moves sideways for a couple years while it plays out.

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Member Avatar tequiejoe (26.73) Submitted: 6/25/2014 2:04:20 PM : Outperform Start Price: $29.35 UPL Score: -52.79

GOOD MEASURE ; BY FOOL !

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Member Avatar bob282 (< 20) Submitted: 6/12/2014 2:52:47 PM : Outperform Start Price: $28.58 UPL Score: -52.47

best metrics in the industry

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Member Avatar swowens2008 (34.37) Submitted: 5/22/2014 12:45:15 AM : Outperform Start Price: $27.29 UPL Score: -52.44

upgrade

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Member Avatar rmaiya (< 20) Submitted: 10/24/2013 7:03:52 AM : Outperform Start Price: $21.14 UPL Score: -51.73

Added few more position, right timing

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Member Avatar llturner103 (59.38) Submitted: 9/4/2013 2:05:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $20.63 UPL Score: -49.85

Natural gas will boost stock long term. Will benefit from demand for domestic energy use.

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Member Avatar FullonTilt (< 20) Submitted: 8/6/2013 10:35:38 AM : Outperform Start Price: $22.31 UPL Score: -52.52

88% institiutional investors. Over the 2 days 8/2 - 8/5 traded ~ 14.3M shares (about 10% of Float) on a rising price. This is one of the few Nat Gas producers making money at $3.5 /TCF. If Gas holds stead or goes up this stock will take off.

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Member Avatar Googlespooch (< 20) Submitted: 6/14/2013 3:19:23 PM : Outperform Start Price: $20.96 UPL Score: -52.60

Moats and competitive advantages are hard to build; however, I would argue that Ultra Petroleum (UPL) has a decent advantage: the ability to drill for liquids at very low cost. In considering Ultra's ability to drill at some of the cheapest rates in the industry, it seems to be only a matter of time before they start turning around as the commodity pricing of liquids begins to increase again (which it will unless everyone actually believes that the recessionary global economic climate will last forever).

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Member Avatar Ulenspiegel101 (< 20) Submitted: 4/25/2013 8:48:33 AM : Outperform Start Price: $20.73 UPL Score: -55.93

Low cost producer. Will rise as nat gas consumption rises.

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Member Avatar EmmyKaye (48.44) Submitted: 4/24/2013 5:03:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $20.73 UPL Score: -55.93

With the price of natural gas rising, UPL should see a significant increaswe to income and revenues.

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Member Avatar Inhouseanalyst (< 20) Submitted: 4/1/2013 1:36:47 PM : Outperform Start Price: $19.48 UPL Score: -52.40

badly misplaced; will right itself with rise of natural gas prices or get bought.

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Member Avatar azinsd (< 20) Submitted: 3/30/2013 11:47:29 AM : Outperform Start Price: $20.06 UPL Score: -54.96

Already bouncing back - dry gas yes future need yes best in business yes

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Member Avatar TMFRSue (54.88) Submitted: 2/11/2013 1:09:08 AM : Outperform Start Price: $16.94 UPL Score: -45.63

Now is a worthwhile time to buy shares of this out-of-favor best-of-breed natural gas exploration and production company while the cost of natural gas is still in the doldrums. The share price of UPL just hit a 5 year low, making this a good time to scoop some up on the cheap in order to be well-positioned in advance of an eventual nat gas recovery.

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Member Avatar MKArch (99.73) Submitted: 1/30/2013 3:12:40 PM : Outperform Start Price: $18.41 UPL Score: -53.45

I with Chanos on China so I'm not a fan of oil but I like Natural Gas.

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Member Avatar JTBoomer (72.73) Submitted: 1/1/2013 1:55:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $17.88 UPL Score: -56.02

Morningstar 5 star rating with fair value of 40

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