Ultra Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:UPL)

US's lowest cost natgas producer. Huge in-ground reserves not yet on the books. Bringing new production on-line at a furious rate. New pipeline access in '08 should increase their profit margin. Hurricane season coming and predicted to be stronger than last year. Unless oil prices drop significantly or the market corrects strongly, this stock should be a stable performer for the next 6 months or so, and show some legs Q4 '07-Q1 '08.

Strong Leaasehold in Rockie Mountain area. Tremendous organic growth through drilling.

Ultra Petroleum Q1 profit tops Wall Street view
Tue May 1, 2007 7:14pm ET

May 1 (Reuters) - Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL.A: Quote, Profile , Research) reported first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street estimates on higher production and strong margins, and raised its full-year production outlook.

The oil and natural gas exploration and production company earned $66.6 million, or 42 cents a share, compared with $67.5 million, or 41 cents a share, a year ago. Analysts on average were expecting 36 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Ultra Petroleum raised its natural gas and crude oil production outlook for 2007 to 114 billion cubic feet equivalent from its previous forecast of 110.0 Bcfe. (Reporting by Neha Pathania in Bangalore)

The price of oil will continue to rise over the next several years. UPL is in a great position in both domestic and international production. And they have abundant natural gas reserves.

My forecast for their next earnings report (due 5/1/07) is for
REV - $170,595K
NET - $60,672K
EPS - $0.39
My seasonal analysis accounts for ~83% of past variation in the reported revenues. The company has beaten my forecast more times than not over the past several years. The price reflects a growth rate of 23% while the historical rate has been more than twice that, so there is quite a bit of margin for error.

JMHO
Jag

Continued growth with room to run...

still fav. 17 yrs + of drilling sites, ntrl gas in wymg/mnta, 2x prdctn next yr (?) if pipeline opens, lowest cost operator in industry

UPL will surprise in the second quarter. My guess is they will do .39cents.

Solid company with solid financials … excellent ROA and ROE

Return on Assets (ttm): 22.31%

Return on Equity (ttm): 38.53%

Profit Margin (ttm): 39.01%

Growth

Past 5 Years (per annum) 64.1%

The Company currently generates the majority of its revenue, earnings and cash flow from the production and sales of natural gas and oil from its property in southwest Wyoming. The Company delivered 30% production growth on an Mcfe basis during the quarter ended December 31, 2006 as compared to the same quarter in 2005 and 24% production growth for the year-ended December 31, 2006 compared to the same period in 2005.

Given the energy and political situation in the world today, this is exactly the sort of company I want to hold in my portfolio; a domestic energy producer. Domestic energy producers not only have a current value, they have a future potential value that is key. Supply has historically been well above demand, but they are nearly in balance now, and can, anytime during the next ten years tip the other way. Combine that with the reality that a huge portion of world petroleum reserves lie in the territory of countries that are unfriendly to the USA and/or unstable. Not to mention that China has busily been securing their future by locking up worldwide reserves for themselves. Why would you NOT want to have something like UPL in your portfolio for the long term? If this weren't enough toss in their distance from hurricanes, their low cost of production, their excellent management. I've owned this for years, and plan to continue doing so.

Huge asset base in Wyoming

Excellent management.

Oil prices will rise due to El Nino and Iran

Price & RSI

Owns land being drilled. No dry holes. Excellent management. Good candidate to be aquired.

dependable growth

huge reserves with big potential for much more

as one who takes frequent trips to Jackson Wy, it is clear the 21 wells of UPL are in full force in the Wy Piney region with 25 more wells scheduled to be operating by the end of the year. History performance speaks for itselt with excellent management and fundamentals, satisfied employees., Enery is down but will take off again and I will be on the rig ready to take off. It's time to buy!

oil exploration

Natural Gas will remain and grow ever more expensive improving returns for UPL