USG Corp (NYSE:USG)

This company manufactures (yawn) wallboard. Yes, the stuff your walls are made of. The stuff that is quite literally one of the building blocks of America. And since America hasn't been doing much building lately, USG has been crushed. Bad housing market and bad economy – both bad for USG. Now, as I see it, America is getting its stride back. And with it, its will to build and grow. Which means USG gets it stride back...and goes to 45...then 100.

value

lying th the weeds, waiting. Well managed industry leader, good liquidity. Will be printing money once housing returns to historic levels. Demographics are on its side.

turn around time?

Chart 2

head and shoulders top

Bad year looking to rebound in 2011

Poor Forward Earnings Estimate

Down too long. Inventory depleted

USG hasn't had a single profitable quarter in 3 years. The housing market isn't coming back quickly, so I don't see USG doing better any time soon.

Depending on when Berkshire converts it's senior debt notes and USG STOPS paying them 10 percent a year this stock should soar. Also the amount of wallboard it is selling is off between a third to a quarter from it's peak. Any uptick in home sales over the next three years will make it worth your while to own. Also has over 700 million in cash to survive another downfall or continued pressure in the housing market.

will likely fall below 10 in the next year, but long term will rise to 25 or could even hit 50. People like to live inside either in homes or apartment and tend to like walls on their studs so they don't see their neighbors. There is risk with this company if housing takes too many years to restart.

Two Reasons: Warren Buffett and People will probably start buying houses again some day

This stock is a winner when the housing market turns around.

Incredibly cheap. Anything below $15. Buy it up, and hang on for the long haul. Sustainable competitive advantage. Get a Buffett pick at a great deal.

USG Corp (USG)
The Company through its subsidiaries is a manufacturer and distributor of building materials, producing a range of products for use in new residential, new nonresidential, and repair & remodel construction, including products used in industrial processes.

USG is down 46% from its 52W high, but still up approx. 150% from its March 2009 low.
I love the way USG's chart looks like.
My kind of value play.

April's "New Housing Starts" report wah s the last good housing report for 2010.

If you don't take profits today, you'll not regret it in July. Today's report looked good, but it was based on outdated April data. Comically BB&T and Mark Zandi just came out with a buy recommendation by an analyst who doesn't grasp the deep-seated problems in the drywall or housing industry. The Banking mortgage industry is vitually dead in the water. Then you have Freddie and Fannie insolvent with a lot of bad mortgages and now the FHA is requiring a bailout, because their 3% mortgages are collapsing. Who is going to create mortgages for new home sales in the future.

The biggest problem is there are 5 major drywall manufacturers all trying to sell to a dwindling customer base. In May volume has dropped significantly and the price increases arey eroding.
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This below article is really funny, remember Zandi's asinine claim that the housing crash is over on 6/16/10 when the "New Housing Starts" report for May 2010 is released and they realize that housing again tanking.
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MarketWatch News Break: Zandi declares housing crash over, sees deals

By MarketWatch
5/26/2010 11:19:02 AM

Now is the best time to buy a home in a quarter-century, thanks to low mortgage rates, low prices and special incentives. So says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. He says the housing downdraft is over after several terrible years.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.is wrong too.

Builders boosted by home sales, Toll results

By John Spence MarketWatch
5/26/2010 11:02:21 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF rallied 3% Wednesday morning following a report from the Commerce Department showing new-home sales in the U.S. jumped about 15% in April to the highest level in nearly two years. Toll Brothers Inc. rose 3% after the luxury residential builder reported a smaller quarterly loss and a 41% rise in net contracts. Standard Pacific Corp. and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. both added more than 6% in recent action.

Am seeing housing improving in SoCal - looks good

pend up house demand will be back soon!