PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (AMEX:UUP)
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I think the dollar will do well over the next 6 months or so (which will be bad for the stock market). This is based on info from PowerTradingRadio.com.
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As strange as it sounds, the USD is a safe haven in a very fragile global economy.
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The safest and best currency over next five years
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euro problems will be ongoing
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The Fed has signaled that interest rate increases are nigh. When this happens, the dollar strengthens.
The commodity rally, and therefore weakening of the dollar, is over. There is no where for the greenback to go but up.
Yes, I know: skeptics are yelling that the Fed is running the printing presses overtime, and that hyperinflation a-la-Germany-1920's, gold, and the dollar will be shortly worth about the same as toilet paper.
The renimbi, World Bank SDR's, Yen, Eu are never going to replace the greenback as the world's reserve currency and the standard by which the value of oil and gold are stated.
Go, dollar, go. BTW: I have added UUP to my real portfolio.
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The printer keeps printing new money. Supply is high while demand is low... It needs a global crisis to rebound.
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[http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/former-official-reveals-fed-dirty-little-secret-192650686.html]
...
"currency depreciation is always a central bankers dirty little secret," says Vincent Reinhart, a former director of the Fed's Division of Monetary Affairs. "They don't mind some depreciation at time…The trick is to generate some depreciation but not a lot."
It depends on your definition of "a lot"…
Since Bernanke took office on Feb 1, 2006, the dollar's purchasing power has fallen 11%, and its down 21% in the past decade and 82% since the U.S. got off the gold standard in 1971, according to Miller Tabak.
Apparently, that doesn't count as "a lot" or "too much" depreciation for Bernanke's tastes.
"A design principle of Federal Reserve policy is to get inflation up — to create more dollars so inflation doesn't fall anymore; that's associated with currency depreciation," Reinhart explains. "Nothing the Fed chairman or Secretary of Treasury says is going to change that. [But] they've got to say 'a strong dollar is in the national interest' because they don't want to be seen as promoting a weak dollar."
...
See also my comments on EUO (http://caps.fool.com/Pitch/EUO/5689983/anyone-who-thinks-that-the-eur.aspx)
LOL, need I say more?
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Oversold. What are the alternatives - Euro, Yen?? There should be a "flight to safety" when next shock occurs
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Dollar-bullish? Give me a break! Not until the Fed is Ended.
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It is difficult to time currency longs and shorts however, the bear sentiment is way overdone here and the dollar will rise simply because its been beaten down.
The reality is that few really understand the genius of Bernanke and continue to promote the myth that the Fed is printing money wildly. They aren't as attested by the relatively level M1 and the rising M2 indicates that Americas are saving more.
What we do have is commodity bubbles. Oil is important gold and silver of no importance whatsoever. These silly bubbles are the result of a wrong belief that the dollar itself is being diluted. This is completely false. So this stupid trend will reverse.
Of course I have no faith in Obama to do anything right. If he raised tax the economy slows. If spending is cut that actually cuts overhead that is beneficial, if it just cuts the puffed up prior allocations it will be worthless. So far Obama looks like he is intent on wrecking the dollar.
Ryan on the other hand wants cuts only which will reduce the GDP by about 0.25% per quarter which is reasonable for forward growth. So the wrangling will continue but I see the dialog itself raising the dollar before any substantive changes.
Finally, banks are just starting to increase lending so I see the bond market sliding and a slight elevation in the M1 which is inflation neutral.
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Covestor Model Manager Coe Report Bought UUP in his Market Timing Technicals Covestor Model ( http://covestor.com/Coe-Report )
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Will see if TA works as indicated on this one. Market goes down, dollar goes up.
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The way our President and Congress are spending money(money we don't have) the dollars is bond to go down.
Buy Silver!
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US Dollar is experiencing a temporary boost right now because of Europe. I dont believe this will last too long.
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Dollar has hit a bottom, absent of any idiot fiscal policies that is.
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There is literally no where else to go with world currency when things go to hell.
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can't get much weaker.
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i'm callin' $ rally!
but long term, not so optimistic.
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Easy pick here.
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P/Es of stocks are still way too high. Dollar is at year lows.
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