PROSHARES TR (AMEX:UYM)
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Recs
Will lose tracking accuracy if held more than 1 day, so definitely will underperform in the long run. No brainer.
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Raw material in the earth is a good protection against inflation
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Ultra-shorts and Ultra-pros are all bad investments due to daily rebalancing
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The recovery will need a lot of materials and this has a reasonable cross-section.
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one word ..China!
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general economic weakness persists, chart is oriented bearishly with price hitting a declining 200 day moving average and setting a lower low
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Generally bearish on commodities. I expect the US Gov't won't be able to increase the money supply adequately to account for the tremendous loss of credit-based purchasing power. A reduction in the real money supply (including credit) will reduce economic demand and drive prices down. Commodities should correlate more with the dropping prices than companies of the S&P who have more to offer than just a particular asset. This should equal points in CAPS.
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Good future earnings.
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Basic Materials are in limited supply. It may take 3-5 years before another run hits, but the time to buy metals is when things are at their worst...which is now.
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Because Ultras Suck
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Love this ETF. DuPont, Dow Chemical, Freeport will outperform the DOW once there is a rally. It's a tough one to stomach on bad days but in the long run, the rewards will be worth it.
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The Obama Administration has to fix the housing crisis. No president can succeed if the American Dream of home ownership is out of reach of the average U.S. citizen. Interest rates, housing prices, inventory have aligned with the moon and stars. Now the only thing left is for banks to sell 30 year fixed rate mortgages again.
In my opinion, there is less risk in buying homes now then when homes were sky high. However, human nature is so attracted to belonging to the herd that all reason is abandoned whenever prices begin to rise. Nobody wants to be left out of the party.
Every now and then, a smart lender might realize prices are low, and inventory is high so it should be safe to make loans again, with proper I.D. so to speak. Once carding adults for proof of a job and down payment becomes S.O.P., and the money begins to flow demands on materials will increase.
Therefore, natural resources will become necessary for the housing recovery as well as improvements in infrastructure as well as the dominant long term trend of increasing 21st century global prosperity.
When China starts to outsource to countries for their cheaper labor it is a good barometer that capitalism is a force that has not become outdated.
UYM is a great play on the positive future. The only question I have, as an aging hippie, is: "What are you gonna do when all the slaves are free?"
That is a line from a Joni Mitchell song and we all know Joni Mitchell doesn't lie!
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The US government has to do too many things that will devalue the dollar to help the economy recover. Even as inflation increases it will be difficult to take steps to slow inflation until unemployment gets back to 5.5% or so. This should help commodities and commodity based businesses - especially UYM
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Holding good companies
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The best way to play the materials sector. A great index fund that will return 2x. Better than trying to pick a winner in that sector.
The whole sector is oversold, so this is the best way to play it.
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oversold natural resources ETF
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Proshares Ultra Basic Materials
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Ultra long play
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Absolute Bottom... cannot be wrong on this one... ok I can but still i am in.
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Basic materials seem to be going up in value. We shall see.
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