Virginia Commerce Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:VCBI)

Maribaza (60.79) Submitted: 7/29/2010 1:27:54 PM : Start Price: $6.41 VCBI Score: -61.16

38,25,16
82,30,16

msjburgess (< 20) Submitted: 2/9/2010 3:35:26 PM : Start Price: $5.64 VCBI Score: +86.22

predominantly in n virginia, near dc. this banks not dying so long as the government keeps hiring here.

ddeek (< 20) Submitted: 1/19/2010 2:42:00 PM : Start Price: $4.16 VCBI Score: +181.65

VCBI is through the worst. Better times ahead.

Paramnesia1930 (30.04) Submitted: 12/4/2009 5:11:11 PM : Start Price: $3.75 VCBI Score: -212.17

Volume since late October has been declining, the advance-decline line and momentum indicators have not confirmed the latest highs, and sentiment indicators are frothy. As confidence in the recovery breaks down and money managers lock in 2009 profits, equities will fall—especially banks that have risen excessively in the last six months.

Fersnok (78.72) Submitted: 6/3/2009 11:13:33 AM : Start Price: $4.05 VCBI Score: -132.71

Banks still have a long way to go to get out of the woods. The DC area is swimming in credit unions, big banks, and tech-savvy folks who aren't married to brick-and-mortar banks. Throw in lots of other small banks competing for DC-area deposits, and then factor in VCBI's fairly friendly rates, and you can see how VCBI could face a challenge in keeping its bottom line plump.

7dogs (56.13) Submitted: 5/20/2008 3:36:01 PM : Start Price: $6.52 VCBI Score: +86.21

How refreshing to find current insider stock purchases of a financial stock. Outperform.

BeachBum63 (42.73) Submitted: 5/13/2008 12:03:02 PM : Start Price: $6.94 VCBI Score: +72.82

Reality finally hit VCBI last quarter. However, the worst seems to already be behind them. Insiders have been purchasing the stock at these levels. Probably dead money for a while, but don't see any significant downside.

chloedarwin (< 20) Submitted: 11/8/2007 3:49:27 PM : Start Price: $10.91 VCBI Score: +6.80

Look at the 3rd quarter results. No other bank has accomplished what VCBI did in the industry that has been under severe pressure. When the rest of the banks get to declaring their real losses, the industry will settle down and then VCBI should regain its previous stock values of $26 to $35 per share.

quitman100 (84.55) Submitted: 7/7/2007 1:42:23 PM : Start Price: $14.64 VCBI Score: -21.26

The stock is trading near its 52 week low. Its trend down from May hasn't been accompanied by specific bad news -- presumably just a concern about the housing market and the flat or inverted yield curves that many banks face.

Are the housing market / potential loan loss concerns justified? In their annual report the company notes:
"As noted above, the majority of the Bank's loan portfolio consists of construction and commercial real estate loans. …Adverse developments in the Northern Virginia real estate market or economy could have an adverse impact on this portfolio of loans and the Company's income and financial position." But do I believe the Northern Virginia
economy has long-term or fundamental problems? Heck no.

Aside from its proximity to the nation's capital (really how can real estate in this area not be valuable?), Northern Virginia counties have some impressive statistics. For example, over a third of the adults in Arlington County hold a graduate degree (see http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/200... ). Fairfax County is a very populous and very wealthy county (the wealthiest in the Washington D.C. area and among the handful of the wealthiest in the nation). Further, the counties that VCBI can expand into, e.g. Loudoun, are very fast growing and affluent counties. I think Northern Virginia, partly because of its location near the nation's capital, will continue to grow and be exceptionally affluent. So, to me, a bet on VCBI is partly a bet on this area.

Finally, I'll note a few anecdotal items. A family friend switched from BBT (a much larger bank than VCBI, but still a regional bank) to VCBI and raves about VCBI's service. This reminded me of something somebody once said about BBT: they may need get much bigger or smaller to compete. That is, though local banks are small, they often compete well with bigger companies. Also, I've noticed VCBI runs a lot of ads on the local radio, emphasizing extended hours, convenience etc.

justdoodleit (< 20) Submitted: 12/15/2006 4:39:41 PM : Start Price: $16.28 VCBI Score: -40.12

TrackTMFFoolish8 pick sitting at LOW - still in downtrend, so either picking bottom :-) or ... ?

The Bank pursues a traditional community banking strategy, offering a full range of business and consumer banking services through twenty branch offices, two residential mortgage offices and two investment services office, principally to individuals and small to medium-size businesses in Northern Virginia and the Metropolitan Washington, D.C. area.

123rmg (37.60) Submitted: 10/4/2006 8:54:24 PM : Start Price: $17.77 VCBI Score: -54.09

Good management. Growth will continue.