Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI)

Valmont has a number of things going for it. It has strong international presence, is positioned to take advantage of the stimulus package when roadway work really gets going, and is also well positioned in the energy field with the towers it builds for wind generatiors. Most importantly Valmont has an excellent management team, well versed in international trade, and a strong marketing force. I hold Valmont and it is winner in my portfolio and am a former officer of Valmont so I think I know the inside story of this great company.

With $3.20 corn due this year, farmers will be spending money. While I like the ag play, the real story here is the terrible US electric infrastructure. With the advent of wind and other alternative energy sources, the infrastructure will need serious upgrades, and VMI will be there to benefit. Expanding margins show the business has decent internal leverage. They've had quite a run but look decent at 19x forward earnings. Compare to LNN at 25x forward earnings with a less diversified model and the value is clear.

Leader in pivot and lateral move irrigation systems. Will continue to grow in the US and worldwide. Also in other niche markets. Check their site, valmont.com, and look at history and then timeline.

Check the mfr of the street light pole outside your house or office; than think GVA, BGC, etc. Than think corn. Than think from 150% DTR down to less than 50% and you get the elec grid, highway construction, irrigation and a fine well managed midwestern company with growing overseas sales---China mfg facility...

Who doesn't need improved electrical power grids? The increasing earnings per share of this company shows that gaining the approval of those who need Valmont's products.

Great fundamentals will keep this baby moving. It is hanging touch, fighting back in a bearish market.

Solid company, good management in a secure industry

Macro: Some industries will not be replaced by China, VMI's products are infrastructure products, this industry has strong growth potential.

Micro: 5 of last 6 quarters with positive earnings surprises.

Not sure about their other products, but I think irrigation products are going to be big for agriculture.

Utility / Ag play.

2/6/09 Pitch: Downthumb. Earnings 2/17/09. I just don't believe that the bad news is out yet on this company. Had a good October quarter report. But no warnings of any slowing and no indication of belt tightening. Why do these CEO's think that they don't have to report anything at intervals less than a quarter in this environment? So it's downthumb.
Past trades:
10/10/08 Pitch: Upthumb. Earnings 10/16/08, 9:00 AM Steel industry is overly sold off. Closed 12/10/08 @ $60.42 for +6.62 points.

Company continues to expand around the world. China's demand should grow fast and this company has 3 modern plants there.

Aquisitions continue to be made and will aid growth and profits in the years to come. Good Management exists both domestically and in their internation division. Expect the trend to go up nicely over 5 year time frame.

whats not to like...

Overwhelming earnings in a sector that will rebound more quickly than the market

This is a company that has achieved #1
positions in mechanized irrigation and poles.
It has opened 3 factories in China and has
been profitable in China.The company bene
fits from need for water conservation,
electricity growth and need for more transm
ission structures.Likely will be acquired by a larger company in the future because it is such a great company and because the founder still owns a third of shares and likely won't live forever.

Infrastructure development.

Fortune 40

Taken a beating as hedgers had to sell to raise cash. But food isn't all that plentiful, and demand won't be dropping anytime soon.

Will benefit from Investment in infrastructure in the coming depression also need to increase food production world wide.

Dont fight the trend. The price needs to correct a bit closer to it's next support level at around 72. This will put it's PE at a much more rational number and will help stablize a bottom before moving again to challenge it's highs. stock will underperform for the next several months then tiime to re-evaluate.