Validus Holdings, Ltd. (VR)

zloj (98.48) Submitted: 11/20/2009 12:14:31 AM : Start Price: $25.69 VR Score: -0.14

Insurance industry is always a winner.

Itemirus (68.54) Submitted: 9/9/2009 2:42:17 AM : Start Price: $25.13 VR Score: -4.67

Although the insurance business is somewhere outside my circle of competence, i picked VR (and added it to my portfolio) for a simple reason (keep it simple, stupid!) - VR's management outsmarted a couple of competitors (max Capital and Flagstone RE) and, more noticeably, Mr. Buffett himself on the acquisition of peer company IPC Reinsurance - Mr. Buffett had offered to buy IPC for 1.7 billion dollars in cash, while the guys at VR bought it in a cash and share deal for 1.65 billions. This tells me a couple of things: first if Warren Buffett (who knows the insurance business far better than most anybody else), offered to buy IPC for 1.8 billion dollars, then it means that the company is worth considerably more, at least sometime in the predictable future; second, if the guys at VR managed to buy it for less, it means they indeed know their trade and that the combined company will be worth more in the future.
Although this alone is more than enough for me to pick VR as a winner, i also checked some data and found out that the company is being sold around book value (the insurance industry has been in distress recently but the outlook is favorable), it carries little debt and a simple DCF valuation gives a fair value of around $50 per share.