Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (AMEX:VWO)
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think emerging markets will move faster (beta) than the broad market (either way)
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Emerging markets are the way to go when the larger economies are struggling
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Emerging markets will have higher growth rates than the developed markets for the foreseeable future. Vanguard is a the low cost way to get a divesified basket of stocks in these volatile but high growth markets. 2% dividend is a bonus.
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Buy and hold for the really long term - but don't forget the currency risk.
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Emerging markets are likely to do better than those in debt-ridden developed nations.
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Ditto my EPI pitch, but for emerging markets generally.
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I love the low expense ratio on this ETF. Plus it is a simple way to add quickly developing nations to my portfolio in a diversified manner.
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I think with all the domestic (US) debt issues.... emerging countries are looking like the place to be.
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VWO is an ETF tracking emerging markets. The fund is compelling now IMHO given its composite forward p/e ratio is only around 12x. While the fund does have some heavy allocations to cyclical industries and materials (typical of an emerging markets fund), VWO has a solid long-term track record and low expense rate. The fund has a fairly solid allocation to China (17% as of April 30) and Brazil (16%). This fund is volatile but should outperform over a five year span.
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As of 05/13/11, this emerging market ETF is underperform relative to SP500 and is at its recent lows. If the stock market further deteriorates, this ETF will not go much lower than SP500. This is a defensive position with a one to two year time frame. When the market resumes bull run, this ETF will outperform SP500.
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I am looking at this ETF as a means to add some foreign diversification into my portfolio. From a practical position, Vanguard's low expenses always tend to make their investments very appealing. Vanguard has made a smart move of weighting this ETF towards the major foreign economies that will be in play on the world stage in the years to come (Brazil, China, S. Korea Taiwan, etc.).
Lots of countries (particularly in Europe) have had debt crisis and credit downgrade problems but investing in foreign markets now should be a good position to take given how we have inflated the USD with QE2. The world will [hopefully] catch on and our cheep but limited exports will look more appealing.
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Emerging markets will outperform U.S. Doubling earnings from 2 million to 4 million can be done in a short amount of time for a company. A company turning earnings from 2 billion to 4 billion will take many...many years. This is the same principle for GDP in emerging markets.
They just hit their industrial revolution in the last 10-20 years..they have allot of catching up to do...and yes they will eventually catch up.
They also (China/India) have MANY, MANY more people than the U.S. Think if the average Chinese household made half of an american household...When this happens this fund will have made over 100% more than the S&P..probably more like 500%.
Now..if you bought this for your retirement..I think in 40 years the average Chinese household has the capacity to be earning half of an American household.
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The world keeps getting more flat. I don't see why this trend wouldn't continue.
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Devaluing long term U.S. dollar, I like this over the emerging market debt such as ELD because this will give you the same benefit from a falling dollar as well as a dividend yield and more upside potential.
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Emerging markets will still lead in growth. Those nations are taking the inflation threat seriously. Vanguard's ETF has the lowest expenses.
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Ridiculously low fees, broad exposure to fast growing economies with inexpensive labor forces = beating SP 500 often.
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Why an emerging markets ETF: Instead of purchasing a new stock this month, I am planning to continue my strategy of diversification. I understand that: 1) the benefits of diversification are less now that all markets appear to be more correlated; 2) emerging markets have had a massive decade-long run and mean reversion may kick in. However, the reality is that over the next twenty years, these are going to be the markets to be in. That is true EVEN IF China is a bubble and emerging markets experience a major tanking this week or in the next few years. Do I think Europe will perform better over the next twenty years? No. The U.S.? No. Japan? No. So more money needs to be allocated here. I was planning to purchase this ETF anyway, but the fact that the Egypt protests, and inflation worries, and international interest rate hikes have tanked the fund (and all emerging stocks) since the start of the new year makes it easier to begin a position, even though it may go down significantly farther in the short term. At this point its performance compared to the S&P for the last year is about even -- all of 2010's gains have been erased.
Why VWO and not EEM or some other emerging ETF? -- Well, as between VWO and EEM, both cover the whole universe of emerging stocks, all countries. But VWO's expense ratio is 0.27%, versus EEM's 0.69%. So why would anyone invest in EEM instead of in VWO? Good question! EEM's only selling point apparently is increased liquidity for institutional buyers. Am I an institutional buyer? No. In general, for ETFs one should look to Vanguard first -- theirs are the cheapest. If they don't have something (as yet, they don't have country-specific funds), then turn to iShares, etc. This is complicated only by the fact that apparently certain brokers offer EEM at a zero cost basis, absorbing the cost themselves. As for VWO versus country-specific funds, I should have started with this rather than with BRF. As far as I'm concerned, a low-cost generalist Vanguard ETF or mutual fund is the best and safest place for a real life investor to start investing in emerging markets stocks. Do I REALLY know enough about emerging markets to know that Brazil is the best place to start? No. Is that my gut reaction? Sure, but in case I'm wrong, I'm moving to this instead, while maintaining the BRF position I previously initiated.
I am opening a very small position. I continue to think quality large-cap U.S. stocks offer the most value at this time, in any market anywhere in the world. However, over the next three to five years I intend to slowly dollar-cost-average my way into a variety of emerging markets stocks, mainly via ETFs, though I may invest in a few individual companies as well.
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The only practical alternative to our current economic mess is to inflate the dollar. While this will make American exports cheaper, it will also benefit the developing market firms that actually make the things American firms sell.
Moreover, it appears that sclerotic oligopolies will continue to dominate the US economic system for the foreseeable future, using their power to stifle innovative small and mid-caps. Combine this with our deteriorating educational system and disincentives for smart, entrepreneurial Americans to stay in our country, the long term future for the nations that hire them will be bright.
Thus, I think VWO is a good hedge against further decline in the US.
It will be a poor choice if cheap dollars allow the US to flood markets or if there is a global depression, which will hurt them worst. On the other hand, as the global economy grows, they tend to benefit first.
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International Emerging Markets
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Vanguard has a proven track record that I'm willing to subscribe to.
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