WellCare Health Plans, Inc. (WCG)

I am amazed at everything I am reading. I bought Wellcare at its near low of $25 a share and sold at $49 (a price I was delighted with!). Since then thuogh the industry has had a dip, that is based on more than just rumour - the fundamentals behind medical costs are very real. We know little about Wellcare except for:

- the stock has benefitted from rumours of a takeover. However at a P/E premium to the industry's bigger players and an uncertain future, I doubt very much that the big players of UNH and HUM will entertain a takeover right now.

- the company has axed 5% of its workforce and announced a Q1 loss is likely. True some of that is related to legal fees but most of it (as evidenced by the job chops) is the result of fundamentals. We do not yet know 2007 EPS but I will bet in the current environment 2008 EPS will be lower than 2007's.

- Based on the above there is a large PE premium to which the stock is trading against its peers. And in case everyone else forgot- THE INVESTIGATION IS ONGOING - and close to an election!!!! You do not spend $32m on legal fees if the likely outcome is a $100m fine! I think this is big! I would also add the job cuts are not at the best time as having disgruntled former sales staff provide evidence will be of no help.

WHEN THIS DROPS, IT WILL DROP BIG!!!

Oversold and underated, the whole sector lost over $40BN in the past week after WellPoint came out with the revised Profit guidence.

This is a steal, they have hugh goverment contracts, they are the primary Medicaid provider and will be good for years.

Just MHO!

Rapid growth, lots of cash, great customer service, leader in offering Prescription Drug Plans, superior website, top executives own a significant percentage of shares -- small enough to be swallowed up by many of the larger players in this consolidating field.

mp

With Pabrai and Berkowitz of Fairholme on board, I'm also a believer that the hit this company took following the news of an investigation was a bit exaggerated. It should emerge fundamentally unscathed.

Reasonable bet that this stock will outperform in the long term.

What a crazy markdown a month ago, from 128 to 21 in 5 short trading days. What a world!

it's only going up!

WCG dropped over $100.00 per share in just a few days because of an FBI and SEC raid. Go ahead and fine them and throw a few people in jail. The federal government would be stupid to put them out of business (but, then, the federal government has never minded being stupid).

Anyway, I bought a big chunk of this stock at $24.20 and think that it will go to at least $60.00.

Stock is discounted for a ruinous scandal, but the consequences are likely to be mild.

At this point in time, purely speculative play based on its current situation. I lend more credibility to the people know within the company versus those outside. Regardless, the beating they have taken should be reversed even if the charges have something to them.

Stock is only down because of litigation. When that's resolved, especially favorably, stock should soar.

Pending FBI Raid, the stock should gain some of the momentum lost during investent but that will take some time. As the real value of the company should be much higher.

valuepick

Will climb slowly again post medicare clean ups.

This company for sure will rebound its just that it has to have some news regarding the FDA thing...once that comes out this stock will soar and will go up soon.

I chose wellcare health plans because of the aging population. The baby boomers will be needing more medical attention as well as purchasing more prescription medications to maintain their health. Companies such as WellCare Health will benefit from this group of people in the near future.

Beaten down stock with a low PE in a good industry.

Medicare provider that has been beaten down overly. Good time to pick up shares. Company has strong balance sheet and good cash flow.