WellCare Health Plans, Inc. (NYSE:WCG)

MCG misses bottom and top line - shows a rather negative outlook

Seems burdened by the loss of the Ohio and Missouri Medicaid contracts, but they only represent 4% and 1%, respectively of total revenues. Molina lost OH as well, but that's 22% of revenues. Seem as if the market is lumping everyone together regardless of actual outcomes.

I suspect WCG will bounce back from its tumble.

Fortune 500 top-ten performing stock from 2011.

Good free cash flow
low debt
attractive P/E ratio

$6.8B Sales trading for cash on hand. Although legal matters scare me, I think that the market has oversold this stub.

Wellcare has recently filed all of its late financial statements and is in compliance with listing rules. Fairholme owns its debt maturing in May, so they won't have a problem refinancing it (Fairholme also owns 20% of the equity). This company has earning power of $5 per share. If you assume the government will squeeze their margins, and earnings drop by half, you're still buying it at 5x earnings today. So it's a compelling buy no matter what; nobody else can do Medicare/Medicaid if not for these specialized HMOs.

cash machine, buy with every penny u have

combination of market downturn and the feds

Fairholme, tracking

aFTER ELECTION CYCLE ALL WILL BE ON TABLE IN NAT HEALTH CARE DEBATE AND REFORM AND THEY ARE WELL POSITIONED AT LOCALE AND STAT LEVELS THROUGH OUT COUNTRY ESPECIALLY BY MEANS OF THE AND BACKING OF THE SOROSS CONNECTIONS AND GROUP THEIR CONTACTS AND CONTRACT SIGNED AND PENDING...

The value of this company did not drop 80%

Reasonable bet that this stock will outperform in the long term.

With Pabrai and Berkowitz of Fairholme on board, I'm also a believer that the hit this company took following the news of an investigation was a bit exaggerated. It should emerge fundamentally unscathed.

I am amazed at everything I am reading. I bought Wellcare at its near low of $25 a share and sold at $49 (a price I was delighted with!). Since then thuogh the industry has had a dip, that is based on more than just rumour - the fundamentals behind medical costs are very real. We know little about Wellcare except for:

- the stock has benefitted from rumours of a takeover. However at a P/E premium to the industry's bigger players and an uncertain future, I doubt very much that the big players of UNH and HUM will entertain a takeover right now.

- the company has axed 5% of its workforce and announced a Q1 loss is likely. True some of that is related to legal fees but most of it (as evidenced by the job chops) is the result of fundamentals. We do not yet know 2007 EPS but I will bet in the current environment 2008 EPS will be lower than 2007's.

- Based on the above there is a large PE premium to which the stock is trading against its peers. And in case everyone else forgot- THE INVESTIGATION IS ONGOING - and close to an election!!!! You do not spend $32m on legal fees if the likely outcome is a $100m fine! I think this is big! I would also add the job cuts are not at the best time as having disgruntled former sales staff provide evidence will be of no help.

WHEN THIS DROPS, IT WILL DROP BIG!!!

Health care is stable and this company is undervalued. With solid fundamentals and a scandal no longer an issue this thing is ready to blast off.

Recently, it's been showing signs of a strong stock.

valuepick

With risk of a Dem in office next year, and baby boomers becoming more proactive in their health, expect this stock to stay downward this year. But up as more and more baby boomers age.

Will climb slowly again post medicare clean ups.