Warner Chilcott Ltd. (NASDAQ:WCRX)

Its low?it had bad earnings in 2012 but still money

Both ML and MS show valuation around $24

Good Forward Earnings Estimate

lots of insiders' sales... looks like it will be dropping...

Picked from a screen that looks for stocks with low pe/roe ratios and then further looks for the lowest possible forward pe ratios. This screen typically outperforms by 20% or more based on backtests over the last decade. No other due diligence performed.

After paying out $8.50 dividend, price should return to historic PE ratio. PE of 10- 15 puts the value at $32 -$48.

Strong specialty pharma manufacturer poised to take advantage of J&J's pharma R&D line purchase.

I can't imagine how Moody's affirmed WCRX's credit ratings to complete the PG Pharma purchase. They borrowed the entire amount to finance the deal, and it increased the company's debt from $800 million to $3.9 billion. I understand that the acquisition is "accretive", but they are on the clock to deliver new products when their existing patents expire in a few short years. WCRX is going to be busy servicing debt for a long time, and somewhere in their budget they better plan to do the R&D necessary to take their business forward.
I would estimate that they've bitten off more than they can safely chew.

There is less momentum, less volume, and less buying going on. We are in the last part of this rally.

The 1929-1930 equity rally (coming out of The Great Depression) lasted 147 days and the market was up 46%. It has been the same amount of time since the March, 2009 low and we are up about the same percentage. It’s déjà vu (paramnesia), so prepare for a drop of about the same percentage (85%).

fresh company with bright future

I really like the ticker symbol of this company, four strong letters. With that being said, I see nothing but good things for this company in the not so distance foreseeable future. With such a strong foundation, and leading innovation, combined with this companys uncanny knack for prioritization, it's no wonder they already have such a chokehold on the rest on the industry. Being in charge of portfolios myself, i recommend to all my clients to invest no less than 97% of thier portfolio into this company.

StatsGeek pick. Outperform.

morningstar

Appears to be most competitive in a somewhat sizable market.

Warner Chilcott is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on developing, manufacturing, marketing and selling branded pharmaceutical products in women's healthcare and dermatology in the US. The company's franchises are comprised of complementary portfolios of established branded, development-stage and new products, including, Loestrin 24 Fe and Taclonex. Its women's healthcare franchise is comprised of contraceptive and hormone therapy (HT) categories and its dermatology franchise consists of psoriasis and acne therapies.

On January 1, 2006, the company acquired the US sales and marketing rights to the Dovonex branded pharmaceutical products. For the nine months ended September 2006, Warner Chilcott's revenues increased 45% to $548.1 million, reflecting increased sales from Dovonex product and higher sales due to introduction of two new products Taclonex & Loestrin. Fiscal 2007 is expected to be bullish with revenues to be in the range of $820-$840 million driven by Loestrin 24, Taclonex and Dovonex.

Recently in January 2007 Warner Chilcott and Foamix have signed an agreement to jointly develop antibiotic foam for the treatment of acne. Under the terms of this agreement, Foamix will be responsible for developing the foam formulations and Warner Chilcott will have an option to continue definitive development and worldwide commercialization of the product.

Warner Chilcott seems to be an attractive investment idea as the base business model is less at risk as it has diversified product lines in both women’s health and dermatology. The company has nearly ten products that generate meaningful revenues, with no single product responsible for more than 20% of total company sales. Further, the management team has been successful with reinvigorating acquired products as well as new product launches with an effective sales force of roughly 400 sales reps.

I cannot tell a lie. TrackingRothCapital made me do it. Of course, I checked out the fundamentals and I do like the reversal from a mind-boggling loss, so it's good to have some sane reason for making the pick.

Good management