The Wendy's Company (NASDAQ:WEN)
The Company is primarily engaged in the business of operating, developing and franchising a system of distinctive quick-service restaurants serving high quality food.
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With a new spin off that is supposed to compete with Chipolte...this may be the beginning of some new growth for Wendy's.
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Wendys has always made good hamburgers and good profit. This should keep going on.
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Arbys is junk! Wendy's barely has customers! Look at MCD and Chic-Fillet, you can't get in the doors! Dave was cool but they suck!
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I like their food.
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Good leadership, Emil Brolick revived Yum hopefully he can do it for Wendys as well.
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How do you pay a 3.4% dividend when you're losing money? You don't--you cut the dividend. And then your stock price takes a tumble.
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have observed they provide better products in this region (buffalo,ny area) compare to mcdonalds,given time they should out do the others
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With Dividends exceeding revenue and a P/E ratio of 140, Wendy's is either already overpriced and due for a market correction, or will stay stagnant. I love your burgers Wendy, but I think I'll bet against you for the time being.
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The recent dip in the stock price of this icnoic burger chan presents a delicious opportunity to go long.
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their menu has been vastly improved, people will follow soon enough.
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I wanted to like this, but it was purely a spec play. And if I happen to get back in, it will still be a spec play, because the fundamentals aren't cutting it for me.
~$2.1B of the $4.3B in total assets is counted as "goodwill" and "intangibles"
About $1.2B - $1.3B will be coming due between 2012 - 2019 (2012, $433M should have already been paid in July).
Has only net income of $9.8M/yr, if I'm being generous.
The only way I have conceived that Wendy's would be a good buy, would be if McDonald's bought them out, because McDonald's would get a tremendous boost of scale, while being best able of the fast food companies to stomach Wendy's total debt load.
But I am doubtful McDonald's will buy them out since that could be against antitrust law.
Thus, I see little hope for Wendy's stock at this price, as a going concern.
Lee
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outperform when privatized
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new menu and breakfast is good
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Within the last couple of years the quality has become miles ahead of McDonald's for just a small premium on some items (in Canada). I'm expecting a big turnaround. They have 6,650 locations established, with a great marketing theme recently - featuring a cute red head. They've also got somebody savvy operating their twitter account. I'm impressed with the new direction.
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I like their menu. You simply can't beat their valu menu's price to quality. For less than five bucks you can get a drink, 2 sandwiches (chicken or meat) and some spicy wings and walk out full.
The downside is the execution. It does take longer to get served than at the other fast food joints. But the reason is a good one, they are making your order from the start, unlike getting already made sandwiches sitting under heat lamps.
You even get a small dividend which competes with what you would get from the bank.
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Underperform.
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Wendy's is due for a turn around. While they have often been criticized for their overly-fluid menu, that gives them more flexibility than their competitors. Displacing Burger King as the #2 burger chain is solid, and Wendy's has stayed (barely) profitable during a tough time for the company. With a 2.0 current ratio and 0.7 debt, Wendy's won't be going bankrupt quickly, and its impressive new stores should help change its image. $1.22 of cash per share is not too shabby either. This is a beaten down company that has been through the wringer and is now approaching improvement in its status. This is not a safe investment, but I think there could be impressive returns for such a visible company.
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I just picked up shares to start a position. I like the heavy insider buying, new leadership and the plans to revamp and expand. While it's not a reason to buy the stock, I really like the new menu items. Great food. Also, I really like what I see with their latest marketing ads etc.. Great direction.
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If their recent overtaking of burger champ #2 is any indication, Wendy's is doing something right. A small dividend comes with the low price, a nice little benefit. Personally, Wendy's rates among my favorite fast food places to go, and I think their efforts show. They have some class but aren't so elegant that they are out of the low price range.
If they keep honing their U.S. formula and continue building up their small overseas presence, I see modest and continuing growth over the next five years.
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Consider this a relative value pairs trade put on in conjunction with my Chipotle red thumb of a couple of days ago.
This way I'm not making a bet on the absolute direction of the market as much as the relative value spread between Chipotle stock and Wendy's stock.
Here are the facts:
Wendy's total enterprise value ~ $2.96B
Wendy's number of restaurants = 6,594
Implied value per Wendy's location = $449K
Chipotle's total enterprise value ~ $12.66B (net of cash)
Chipotle's number of locations = 1,230
Implied value per Chipotle location = $10.3 million!!
To put that in the broader context of their average sales per location, Chipotle's average sales per location is about $2.0 million and Wendy's average sales per location is about $1.5 million per location. So there is about a 25% premium there. This hardly justifies a nearly 23 to 1 premium over a well established business like Wendy's. A reasonable valuation for Chipotle would be around $5B. The $13B valuation they closed trading with today is insane.
This lunacy is a wonderful example of precisely what's wrong with our capital market system.
STOP INVESTING FOR GROWTH AND START INVESTING FOR VALUE PEOPLE!!! Chipotle is nothing more then a story stock. Don't get me wrong, it's a great restaurant but it's simply not worth what wide eyed investors imagine it to be. Stop being so stupid and stop letting brokers and other hypsters trick you into buying into growth stories. If we all did that for a change instead of approaching the stock market like it's some kind of lottery ticket counter then perhaps capital will start getting allocated more rationally in the future and we can allocate our resources more efficiently and do a better job at preserving employment and sustainable growth in the process.
This sort of crazy irrational exuberance is precisely why the real estate bubble happened. That happened because we ENABLED it. We bought into the ridiculous spin and projections that real estate values would compound at absurd rates of growth for perpetuity. It feels like it's happening again in Chipotle stock as the momentum crowd piles in and drives this price to insane heights without doing any homework beyond looking at a pretty price chart and figuring, "Hey, why not buy a lottery ticket and trade it with a tight stop and see what happens." This stock is just one big earnings disappointment waiting to happen. All it will take is for their EPS growth to slow to 20% and this stock will sell of like 25-30% immediately.
Okay, I'll briefly entertain the notion of the Chipotle growth story for a second here just to illustrate how absurd this valuation is.
Let's just assume that Chipotle were able to magically grow to Wendy's size, like tomorrow and let's further pretend that it cost them zero capital to accomplish this feat which is clearly an absurd assumption, but I'm going to pretend they acquire those locations for free just to hammer down this point. Here's how the math looks now:
Chipotle's total enterprise value ~ $12.66B
Chipotle's number of locations = 6,594
Implied value per Chipotle location = $1.92 million
That would still value their average location at an astronomical 4.27 times the implied value of Wendy's actual price today. Now ask yourself, how long did it take Wendy's to achieve their current size? Chipotle certainly won't get there overnight and that growth certainly won't come for free so the true multiple is in fact far more aggregious then this.
It's almost like the stock market is pricing in about a decade's worth of growth already into the share price today.
Now ask yourself, does that seem reasonable to you?
Wouldn't you rather own restaurants that generate 75% of the revenue as Chipotle at a 75% discount. Plus Wendy's pays a dividend. It will be years and years before you ever see a penny of dividends out of Chipotle.
But fear not investors, Chipotle's brilliant management team WILL buy back shares at an absurd 29.5x EBITDA.
Does that sound like a wise use of shareholder capital to you?
Ridiculous.
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