Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT)

Satuarated oversized behemoth missing Sam Walton and getting spanked by Target on comps is low end rural in a cheap chic urban world. Yet Wal-Mart is still the most efficient, lowest priced mass merchandiser in the US and routinely offers grocery pricing 25-35% most competitors. Comps have been crimped by a long hard run in gas prices, particularly hurting Wal-mart's lower income customer. But even with the 200bp comp impact of self cannibalization and continued oil woes, WMT continues to comp positively and grow operating income. At 15X NTM earnings, you are getting an interesting price for WMT even if it were on the cusp of maturity, given its unsually reliable earnings power generated by long standing cost leadership and resulting in 40 consecutive years of earnings per share growth. But it is not nearly as mature as its domestic enormity would suggest. Despite over 3200 domestic Wal-mart Supercenters and discount stores, it has room to grow US Square footage ex-Sam's via Supercenters at 7-8% per annum for the next ten years, even without heroic assumptions about penetrating more urban markets. And despite soaring capital costs, this growth still comes at 20%+ incremental returns on equity. A 6.7 % real yield is a lot to get for one of the best and most reliable businesses in history which still maintains its very durable competitive advantage and has significant room to grow at good returns doing what it already has done. International (including China), Sam's, a

Let's face it, the economy can tank, gas prices can soar, and Wal-mart will continue to make money. Wal-mart is the first place that the people making cutbacks will spend their money.

Mostly because I dreamt this was the thing to do. Yes, I'm serious and no, I'm not a luncatic. Although in my half century on Earth so far I have had a few dejavu moments, this is not a method of mine to follow dreams. But I've already been mulling over whether there is another downturn coming, and I think there is. The dream was something like that, and that I bought Walmart and fared really well.
To add some color.. I think the downturn is for the lower-middle income class. I don't think blue chips are going to nose dive again. Dip perhaps, but not dive. The majority of those John Does losing their jobs the past 2 years and the next 2 years are going to Walmart more than ever before. It does not look to me like any other company has ever come up with an answer to Walmart.

The much-hated monster continues to make more money....and not get recognized for it. Eventually the falling PE will be noticed by even the most ardent WMT haters. Anticipate a growing dividend as the company continues to grow and mature.

The balance sheet looks suspect, with long-term debt growing on a year-over-year basis. Their current ratio is not good, especially for a company this size. In fact, for a company that is making as much money as they are, the ratios are cause for concern.

This stock may continue to go up for a short while, but it is certainly peaking out very soon. While shoppers may flock to their local Wal-Marts to investors' delights, stag-flation will hurt WMT because they have such a large footprint in the U.S. and cannot escape the wrath of a troubled economy.

All this, plus most sensible people who have a choice in shopping venue would choose Costco or Target over Wal-Mart without even hesitating. Wal-Mart prides itself on being an All-American company, yet all they sell are cheap foreign goods that are putting U.S. workers out of jobs.

I'd like to get this about $3 cheaper than $46 , but for the risk involved I think the upside is very nice from here. All kinds of world class investors, Nygren, Buffet etc are buying shares. While I appreciate that they have a limited pond of fish to choose from, I think I understand why now is the time to buy. Will gladly average down into this one for my own portfolio from here. I've convinced myself that the lack of averaging in CAPS is why I am currently just above the 300th place out of 360. But my picks are great, I'm just early !!!! Right ????

The company with "Everyday low prices" is selling for an everyday low price. The world's best retailer has only scratched the surface of what it can do internationally. I strongly believe the business model will work world wide because everywhere in the world people appreciate buying an item for less. It's scary to think, but Wal-mart still has a lot of growth left in it (right now they sell only 3% of the world retail goods, that's 97% left to conquer!). Their inventory management and logistics are the best in the world, and that will allow Wal-mart to expand worldwide and build on its economies of scale in a way that no other company can. I'm a buyer here for sure! I expect 10% annual returns over the next 5-10 years.

At a P/E of less than 19, this company's almost peerless history of operational excellence is looking quite attractively priced - outperform.

While certainly not a popular company right now, I believe that their strong balance sheet, continued investment in growth and newfound awareness of what their image actually is will drive excellent returns for shareholders in the next 5-10 years.

game over for wmt. it has a number of things going against it. reached saturation point at most markets. growth prospects (even with international markets) does not justify high multiple. in us, half of the people have money and half of the people are really struggling. the ones who are struggling will definitely continue to shop more at wmt cause it's cheap. the ones that are doing well will shop at target instead. wmt will probably face intense competition and defection of customers to other chains that offer a superior shopping experience.

Nothing in their operations and business plan are attractive.

Let me list some of the negatives for those thinking about long term investment and sustainability. Day traders need not read.

1) Poor employee treatment -Rarely provide fulltime employment and benefits. Also big union-buster. Employees are fired at first sign of organizing to improve conditions.
2) Horrible medical coverage - Most employees are forced into medicare/medicaid where the costs are passed onto the taxpayers.
3) Predatory pricing - Walmart moves in. Lowers prices. Other stores in area are forced out of business and then prices go up.
4) A warehouse on wheels - Profits are heavily dependent on petroleum prices due to distribution needs
5) Personally, I think they have expanded beyond a managable level.
6) 99 cent stores and other similar cheap-o stores are eating away at client base.

Target is taking away walmart customers. It is a better place to shop with more selection and better displays. No one wants to be hearded through crowded isles of items. NOT EVEN FOR A BARGAIN

Wal-Mart is the largest retailer in the world, with approximately 5,000 stores around the globe. Despite its size, the company has still managed to grow at over 10% a year for the last five years. Wal-Mart still has considerable room to grow, particularly in international markets. In the past two years, international sales provided 27% of Wal-Mart's overall revenue growth, but they are still only 20% of total revenue.

Historically, WMT was expensive. However, the stock is trading at the lowest Price/Earnings and Price/Sales multiples in 20 years. In addition to the attractive valuation, the company is steadily increasing its dividend and buying back stock.

tremendous buying power makes it difficult for any competitor to undercut them. dedicated, shareholder friendly management. worst case scnario: standing still, they reach 2-3% same store growth (inflation+population growth), add in 3-5% from new stores (mostly in new markets) and share buy back; and they can count eps growth of at least 10%. that alone indicates a misplaced evaluation given their size, strength and predicatbility. yet growth could easily come in higher: wmt are constantly trying new things (eg store upgrade, attempts to attract higher demographics). it would be surprising if all the initatives were to fail.
wmt is also good defensive stock, as demonstrated by its sustained price despite recent management stumbles. caveat: i am uneasy about holding wmt longer than six months because of legislative risks to their business model. i worry wmt may have appeal as a convenient whipping boy to democratic politicians eager to establish profile during the presidential campaigns.

Ronald Muhlenkamp owns 7745 shares of WMT at a cost basis of $47.67 per share. As of September 30th, 2007 WMT was down -5.46% over the last quarter and composed 0.01% of his portfolio.

This giant is hard to ignore, and its stock has been somewhat stagnant for a long time. With a P/E in the mid-teens, profit margins rising, and annual revenues around a third of a trillion dollars, I'm intrigued.

Wal-Mart customers will benefit more than other sectors from the drop in energy prices. As Wal-Mart becomes more trendy, middle class customers will "Trade down" as they perceive a greater value to offset the housing slowdown.

Wal-Mart has struggled for the past few years. It's price has been dropping or stagnant, while earnings have risen, bringing the P/E ration to a more reaonable level. Wal-Mart still has room to grow, especially overseas. Wal-Mart remains a low cost leader, and a wide moat company available at a reasonable price.

Wal-Mart's days of double digit growth are over. Communities aren't welcoming new stores, they're resisting them. As long as they were building lots of new stores, they were making more and more money. If they seriously try to get into the organics & naturals market (they're just dipping their toes in right now) they'll lose their Made in China shirts.