Weight Watchers International, Inc. (NYSE:WTW)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

A consumer company, which provides weight-loss services around the world. It conducts business through a combination of company-owned and franchise operations.

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Member Avatar AnsgarJohn (98.36) Submitted: 7/7/2015 7:59:37 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.24 WTW Score: -6.59

Weight Watchers, too difficult for real money. Cash flow, but huge debt, no book.
Educational pick at PE under 3.
Like this comment: Player Avatar MrMighty (97.94) Submitted: 5/25/2015 8:35:54 AM : Underperform Start Price: $6.15 WTW Score: +25.43
Somebody's going to make money on the Weight Watchers brand, but it will probably be a creditor. Once WTW enters bankruptcy, I expect to see Weight Watchers brand stuff in my grocery store.

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Member Avatar MrMighty (97.85) Submitted: 5/25/2015 8:35:54 AM : Underperform Start Price: $6.15 WTW Score: +33.18

Somebody's going to make money on the Weight Watchers brand, but it will probably be a creditor. Once WTW enters bankruptcy, I expect to see Weight Watchers brand stuff in my grocery store.

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Member Avatar Nuro (26.74) Submitted: 4/10/2015 10:33:39 AM : Underperform Start Price: $8.10 WTW Score: +50.20

Although it's on Greenblat's list, with such scary fundamentals it seems like a losing business. It dropped quite a bit, but IMO still has more to go.

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Member Avatar dcgatlanta (36.45) Submitted: 3/23/2015 3:13:13 PM : Outperform Start Price: $7.99 WTW Score: -49.10

This is getting priced like a call option on survival

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Member Avatar TMFValueMagnet (92.45) Submitted: 2/27/2015 2:00:19 PM : Underperform Start Price: $11.75 WTW Score: +64.86

I missed the boat on today's -33% move. Bummer. But what I didn't miss is that we now have what looks to be a terminal company. I think it's going to zero. Strengths turn to weaknesses. Meetups supposedly provide an economic moat, but when the "network effect" unwinds it's ugly. Fewer people showing up means fewer people feel the need to show up. Eventually, meetings with 25 people become meetings with 10. It's only compounded by high operating and financial leverage. I feel bad for shareholders, but feel even worse for the creditors -- WTW has a huge credit facility with no covenants. As for assets...what assets? So many intangibles.

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A requirement to keep dividends and repurchases under $100 million per fiscal year makes shorting this a little more tolerable, as you don't have to worry about a big dividend or repurchase adding a short-term pop to the share price between here and $0.

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Member Avatar BaradDur (82.95) Submitted: 2/27/2015 10:46:59 AM : Underperform Start Price: $16.78 WTW Score: +80.40

Looking for this stock to slim down a little.

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Member Avatar Hugz (49.46) Submitted: 2/5/2014 10:12:31 AM : Outperform Start Price: $28.64 WTW Score: -105.97

Has been battered over the past year, down around 45%, even though the stickiness of its product has not slowed--this still serves as the most adherent weight-loss program in America, Land of the Obese.

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Member Avatar StewpotDrew (44.71) Submitted: 2/2/2014 11:55:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $28.67 WTW Score: -103.60

Undervalued

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Member Avatar NovaTodd (22.16) Submitted: 8/30/2013 10:11:09 AM : Outperform Start Price: $36.27 WTW Score: -116.49

WTW generates large amounts of surplus cash thanks to its asset-light business model; unfortunately, the majority of this FCF will likely go towards paying down a heavy debt burden incurred last year to fund a repurchase of shares at premium prices. This will, however, cause the EV/EBITDA multiple to compress unless the equity increases by a commensurate amount. The equity is currently valued at just under 8 times normalized free cash flow, so there is room for growth.

Revenue from the online business grew 26% from 2011 to 2012, and there's been steady growth in this segment dating back to 2008. Since margins are considerably higher in the online segment, growth in this space should be more than enough to offset any further declines in meeting attendance. As a result of this growth, I do not expect EBITDA to decline over the next several years, nor do I expect the market to assign a lower multiple than today's ~8x, since this is at the low-end of the company's historic valuation. This leaves an increase in share price as the most likely mechanism for maintaining today's EV/EBITDA multiple; the possibility for multiple expansion towards a more normalized 10x gives the shares additional upside.

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Member Avatar rknapton (< 20) Submitted: 8/26/2013 7:59:36 PM : Underperform Start Price: $36.18 WTW Score: +116.24

Short. Weightwatchers is failing in their performance. Revenues down. Tons of debt. Alexa ranking is down 818 spots from 3 months ago to 3071. Cheap valuation is just a value trap.

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Member Avatar elkwingcaddis (85.61) Submitted: 8/1/2013 2:28:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $57.86 WTW Score: -146.74

Winner of Best Diet from US News World Report three years in a row. WW has a proven formula that works AND focuses on their plan as a life change and not just a diet. The business model is great AND insurance companies are starting to see the value in healthy weight loss programs. (My company currently offers a 50% discount.) This is a great long-term buy and fold incestment.

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Member Avatar MotleyArt (67.52) Submitted: 5/21/2013 4:08:45 PM : Outperform Start Price: $47.57 WTW Score: -116.63

Stock is rebounding.

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Member Avatar nickclaud (28.63) Submitted: 3/26/2013 12:30:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $40.60 WTW Score: -124.57

Once the US economy recovers, revenue will return to normal levels

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Member Avatar Orthonormal (89.26) Submitted: 3/4/2013 12:26:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $41.00 WTW Score: -128.29

Magic formula pick

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Member Avatar IsaCann (< 20) Submitted: 1/3/2013 6:08:13 PM : Outperform Start Price: $55.85 WTW Score: -136.20

There will be more than cultural pressure to reduce obesity rates in the US in upcoming years. Insurance companies will demand it. And the Government will silently support any such efforts in the background. Though there is plenty of money to be made from people getting fatter, the most powerful entities, with the most aggressive lobbying machines will rule, helping businesses like WTW grow in the next decade.

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Member Avatar bkzl (< 20) Submitted: 8/8/2012 11:16:40 AM : Outperform Start Price: $43.69 WTW Score: -128.73

Obesity will only grow into a larger problem (pun intended) as time goes on. Nevermind the severe secondary effects - diabetes, high blood pressure, joint pains. It's online business will continue to grow and I believe capture more of the face-to-face users. They've had some slow down in revenue but I think even if management doesn't foul up what they have in place now, moving forward it's still a good value.

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Member Avatar wtcrane1 (92.44) Submitted: 7/20/2012 3:15:19 PM : Outperform Start Price: $50.99 WTW Score: -145.46

High moat, low valuation, obesity epidemic.

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Member Avatar sunnyspot (42.31) Submitted: 2/4/2012 8:04:59 AM : Outperform Start Price: $71.14 WTW Score: -150.57

Forays into untapped markets are already bearing fruit; key components of WTW programs seem to be attracting more clients than those of the competition.

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Member Avatar msj1819 (< 20) Submitted: 9/26/2011 12:56:41 PM : Outperform Start Price: $54.50 WTW Score: -176.25

big publicity with Dr. Oz Million Dollar challenge

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Member Avatar hunk711 (< 20) Submitted: 5/27/2011 5:23:53 PM : Outperform Start Price: $77.68 WTW Score: -150.13

what happened today and how does wtw look for the future?

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