$115.87 $0.65 (0.6%)

04:00 PM EDT on 07/19/19

Woodward Inc. (NASDAQ:WWD)

CAPS Rating: 4 out of 5

The Company designs, manufactures, and services energy control systems and components for aircraft and industrial engines and turbines.

Current Price $115.87 Mkt Cap $7.2B
Open $115.45 P/E Ratio 0.00
Prev. Close $115.22 Div. (Yield) $0.63 (0.6%)
Daily Range $115.45 - $117.12 Volume 100,740
52-Wk Range $70.84 - $118.11 Avg. Daily Vol. 11

Caps

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All Players

522 Outperform
12 Underperform
 

All-Star Players

72 Outperform
1 Underperform
 

Wall Street

9 Outperform
0 Underperform
 

Top NASDAQ:WWD Bull/Bear Pitches

The best Bull and Bear pitches based on recency and number of recommendations.

notzia (41.72)
Submitted April 28, 2009

I based my CAPS “purchase” on an analysis that I did back on April 1 when the stock was at $10.74, which is what I am writing up here. The appreciation in stock price since then caught me off guard (typically when making picks based on value, it… More

Top Bear Pitch

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NASDAQ:WWD VS S&P 500 (SPY)

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Recent Community Commentary

Read the most recent pitches from players about WWD.

Recs

0
Member Avatar Invincerator (76.46) Submitted: 3/15/2011 11:14:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.59 NASDAQ:WWD Score: +946.07

This is a play on components for wind turbines.

Recs

0
Member Avatar Phantomxyz (69.76) Submitted: 11/6/2009 1:34:18 PM : Outperform Start Price: $22.27 NASDAQ:WWD Score: +242.75

A leading supplier of the components needed to move ahead in the industrial control systems that we see in the alternative energy requirements of the near future.

Recs

1
Member Avatar notzia (41.72) Submitted: 4/28/2009 2:38:19 PM : Outperform Start Price: $13.78 NASDAQ:WWD Score: +498.04

I based my CAPS “purchase” on an analysis that I did back on April 1 when the stock was at $10.74, which is what I am writing up here. The appreciation in stock price since then caught me off guard (typically when making picks based on value, it takes a while for others to appreciate the value), and the appreciation since I actually made the pick is also more than I expected for such a short run.

The EPS has been generally been growing since 2001. For the 2001-2008 period, the compounded annual growth (CAGR) has been 12%. The return on equity (ROE) has exceeded 18% for the last two years, and the free cash flow has been positive since 2001 and generally increasing since 2005.

Before I look at the valuations, I look at three indicators of financial safety. For this stock, all three are reasonable. The Altman Z is 3.0; below 1.8 is risky, above 3 is the safe range. The Piotroski F is 5; 2 or below indicates caution, while 8 or 9 indicates that the stock is expected to rise within the next year. The weak spot was the Sloan accrual, which is -.06; 5 or higher is high risk, while -5 or lower is excellent.

I use more than one valuation method to gauge intrinsic value; the first three all provide a reasonable to substantial margin of safety (MOS). The first three are standards in the valuation literature. The estimate based on Graham’s formula was $41 (73% MOS). The Earnings Power Value (value of the firm) was estimated, on a per share bases, to be $40 (73% MOS). The Discounted Cash Flow estimate valued the stock at $17 (38% MOS).

The last two were based on a spreadsheet found on the AAII website; these are designed to mimic Buffett’s valuation methodology. One is based on projecting EPS growth 10 years into the future based on past EPS growth; I discount the resulting valuation to reflect the price at which the stock will realize a compounded earnings (including dividends when applicable) return of 15%. Based on this method the target purchase needs to be below $12, and at the current price there is a 10% MOS

The second is based on estimating EPS growth through the sustainable growth rate. The per-share projected book value is estimated by taking the previous year’s book value, adding EPS and subtracting dividends (when applicable). The projected EPS is estimated by multiplying the projected book value by the average Return on Equity, and the projected dividend is estimated by multiplying the projected EPS by the average payout ratio. I then discount the resulting valuation to reflect the price at which the stock will realize a compounded earnings return of 15%. Based on this method the target purchase needs to be below $12, and at the current price there is an 11% MOS.

To ascertain that the price is attractive to me, I take one more thing into consideration. At the current price, would I expect an immediate 15% return on my investment (ROI) based on earnings and dividends? In this, the EPS represents about 16.6% of the share price by itself, so while the 2.2% dividend yield was not essential, it did provide a bit more safety. However, had the dividend been needed to achieve the desired 15%, I would have discounted it to some degree because there is a moderate risk that the dividend may be cut. This risk is assessed by evaluating several factors (Current Price, Current Yield, Current Payout Factor, Gross Margin, Operating Margin, Financial Leverage, EPS Growth). Both the most recent fiscal year and trailing twelve months (TTM) risk of a dividend cut were moderate. If they had been different, I would give greater weight to a TTM assessment and less weight to the most recent fiscal year.

Based on fundamentals, indicators of safety, and valuation, WGOV rates to be a reasonably good investment.

Leaderboard

Find the members with the highest scoring picks in WWD.

Score Leader

koda300

koda300 (84.56) Score: +980.64

The Score Leader is the player with the highest score across all their picks in WWD.

Top
Pick
Member Name Member
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
Score Commentary
koda300 84.56 3/23/2009 6/11/2010 Outperform 3Y $8.51 +1,262.09% +281.45% +980.64 0 Comment
WallStreetJunkie 79.81 3/9/2009 Outperform 5Y $8.23 +1,307.88% +345.04% +962.85 0 Comment
Invincerator 76.46 3/13/2009 Outperform 3Y $8.59 +1,248.86% +302.79% +946.07 2 Comments
Crystalpetch 69.05 3/23/2009 8/25/2015 Outperform NS $8.78 +1,219.12% +274.46% +944.66 0 Comment
noles9999 83.10 3/24/2009 Outperform 5Y $8.89 +1,204.09% +267.08% +937.02 0 Comment
jimdy 22.32 3/16/2009 Outperform 3W $8.87 +1,206.84% +293.08% +913.76 1 Comment
808Jeff < 20 3/19/2009 Outperform 3Y $9.13 +1,168.52% +273.60% +894.92 0 Comment
poorbanker < 20 4/2/2009 Outperform NS $10.81 +971.51% +261.17% +710.34 0 Comment
woodpret2 76.04 4/8/2009 Outperform NS $11.29 +926.00% +266.00% +659.99 0 Comment
tdurden04 73.02 4/6/2009 Outperform NS $11.51 +906.27% +260.25% +646.02 0 Comment

Wall Street

See what the Wall Street professionals think, according to their public statements and filings.

Player Name Player
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
S&P
Gain
Score End Date Commentary
TrackCreditSuiss 88.09 12/18/2012 Outperform NS $34.85 +232.53% +106.42% +126.11 0 Comment
TrackRodmanRen < 20 1/4/2012 Outperform NS $39.54 +193.03% +133.69% +59.35 0 Comment
TrackRWBaird 89.54 8/10/2011 Outperform NS $27.55 +320.58% +157.90% +162.68 0 Comment
TrackMaximGroup 65.29 4/26/2011 Outperform NS $33.78 +243.06% +121.75% +121.31 0 Comment
TrackDADavidson 85.57 11/17/2010 Outperform NS $30.16 +284.15% +150.76% +133.39 0 Comment
TrackRWBaird 89.54 3/4/2010 Outperform NS $29.00 +9.93% +5.10% +4.83 11/17/2010 @ $31.88 0 Comment
TrackCLKing 63.70 2/9/2010 Outperform NS $23.91 +384.54% +177.47% +207.08 0 Comment
TrackRWBaird 89.54 4/23/2009 Outperform NS $18.70 -1.57% +15.71% -17.29 7/28/2009 @ $18.41 0 Comment
TrackKevinDann < 20 2/13/2009 Outperform NS $18.82 +120.56% +64.64% +55.92 4/17/2012 @ $41.51 0 Comment
TrackRWBaird 89.54 1/21/2009 Outperform NS $23.88 -37.22% -11.24% -25.98 3/2/2009 @ $14.99 0 Comment
TrackKevinDann < 20 9/11/2008 Outperform NS $39.80 -55.43% -35.20% -20.23 11/20/2008 @ $17.74 0 Comment
TrackMaximGroup 65.29 7/22/2008 Outperform NS $43.29 -72.31% -43.49% -28.81 3/4/2009 @ $11.99 0 Comment
TrackDoughertyCo < 20 7/17/2008 Outperform NS $33.91 +241.72% +144.99% +96.73 0 Comment
TrackKevinDann < 20 7/3/2008 Outperform NS $34.23 +36.61% +2.89% +33.72 8/12/2008 @ $46.76 0 Comment
TrackJohnKeeley < 20 3/31/2008 Outperform NS $26.42 -21.84% -29.01% +7.18 6/19/2009 @ $20.65 1 Comment
TrackKevinDann < 20 2/12/2008 Outperform NS $31.24 +28.73% +5.18% +23.54 5/16/2008 @ $40.21 0 Comment
TrackRWBaird 89.54 1/23/2008 Outperform NS $27.98 +37.26% +11.90% +25.36 5/20/2008 @ $38.40 0 Comment
TrackSoros 84.45 9/30/2007 Outperform NS $28.47 +306.98% +104.11% +202.87 1 Comment
TrackJimCramer 86.23 7/16/2007 Outperform 3W $26.75 +333.24% +102.10% +231.14 0 Comment

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