Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)

Horrible fundamentals, declining revenue, near 52 week high.

With the housing market as bad as it is, the need for wood building supplies is diminished, as well in the long term, with the advent of more affordable e-readers the need for paper books and the like, is diminished as well.

Recovery will take longer than most expect.

Trees take a while to grow, and global warming concerns will continue to put pressure on harvesting. Downsizing has been rough for this company.

Housing market may be near a bottom.

Trees and Land --- Down now, get it cheep -- the price of land will rise again and the trees will just grow larger for more board feet of lumber. This is a buy and hold!!!!!

A good play on a possible rebound in the housing market. This stock is tied to it. In some parts of the country there are hints of a bottom yet this year. I think slow improvement could be possible.

Lots of negatives for WY. Trading at almost 2x book value, 9.5x FY 2007 earnings (which was their best year in awhile), and almost 15x FY 2006 earnings. Don't forget they lost $5+ / share in 2008.

Their CAPEX has been significantly decreased in 06-08 while they continue to sell plants, equipment, etc. Doesn't look positive for future growth.

Balance sheet is also deteriorating, with D:E rising consistently and now at 3x from 1.5x just a year ago. With the expected ongoing losses, the D:E will continue to increase.

Lots of downside in this stock and it seems like it still trades at 2007 levels. Expect another round of dividend cuts if they can't get cashflow up. A more sensible price for this stock would be $20. There are lots of good resource plays but this isn't one of them.

Mmm...trees...

Earnings remain horrible, leaving multiples much too high compared to industry average.

Last time I checked, trees are used for a lot more then just US houses.

Slow revenues but this company will likely cut costs. Next year, likely will split into operating co and reit. Meanwhile the future revenues (trees) continue to grow a foot a year.

housing business is going down, taxes are high
nothing good here until after a couple of years

Technical: Too high P/E. Fundamental: Construction is dead for a few years. WY sells lumber to build buildings. Less demand for lumber and forest products used in construction.

Houseing is down with lumber!

In an effort to have my CAPS portfolio diversified, there really is no better asset class than Timber... If only I could gain direct access to owning a forest of trees that get fatter every year no matter what direction the market is going! Unfortunately, most imvestors (including myself) do not have access to such a direct investment, so we must find a good proxy. Here is my suggestion: Weyerhaeuser is one of the largest owner/operators of timber in the world. It is no secret that they are converting to REIT status in the next few years, but I think everyone is underappreciating how much attention and money they will receive as as targeted Timber play. Investors who buy in now and wait for the conversion should be well rewarded. The company, orginally named Weyerhaeuser Timber Company in 1900, is simply returning to roots :)

rally picks

Based on saunafool blog.

The housing market will be down till 2010 -2011. So the chance of seeing profit by WY is slim. They might have good cash flow to suatain 4.7% dividends, however it is at the expense of selling their facilities and brining down their assets.

When WY becomes REIT in 2010 or 2011, then the real value of timberlands will come out. Till then this share will under perform.