SPDR S&P Homebuilders (ETF) (XHB)

Shorting all almost all Household goods (durables) and all homebuilders. with high unemployment, how do you expect people to buy houses or hold onto their mortgages? Because of tax credit, numbers are looking decent, but we'll be back to normal in no time... Short this !!!

foreclosures, unsold inventory, vacant properties, tight credit, 17.5% real unemployment, falling wages, continued pessimism

and this is before the option arm loans default and the commercial real estate loans default

time for a dump

200 dma moving up, and Obama gonna pay our mortgages.

Floridabuilder2 made me do it...Besides, this looks significantly overextended IMO.

I think that homebuilding stocks for priced for perfection. The average P/E of the holdings in this ETF is nearly 25. There just isn't enough growth or profitability to justify that multiple. Also, take a closer look at the top 10 holdings. This isn't purely about homebuilders. A big chunk of the assets are in Williams Sonoma stock. Although I think that consumer discretionary stocks will be higher a couple of years from now than they are today, I'm not confident enough to call a bottom.

Housing is not alive. In fact, it is still barely on life support.

HA!

Only way for homebuilders to go is up!

Technical Pick.....

Do a chart on XHB and you'll see it peaked around early May....since then this index had a heavy correction - and has been consistently range bound - on a Key resistance line.

While on the downside it broke thru the equivalent support line ( to S&P 878) in the market action in the last week or so.

Typically High Beta - so should differentiate 5+ points from S&P

This is the time to jump into the housing sector. I believe that the bottom is here or is very close and the recovery will be very strong.

B1350-R15B1540

Things are picking back up.

Good bottom in.

OBAMA GONNA PAY MY MORTGAGE!!

YEAAAAAAA, BOY!

housing will come back in 2 to 4 years time buy low sell high

Lots of pain still to come.

Outperform based on valuation of homebuilders and a gradual recovery. Market will likely start to move before the real data comes out in official statistics.

We are closing in on the bottom in the cycle for the homebuilders. Given the violent swings in the market, the prudent thing is to use 1/4 tranches (instead of 1/3) when initiating or adding to positions.