Exelis Inc Com (NYSE:XLS)

CAPS Rating: 5 out of 5

Caps

How do you think XLS will perform against the market?

Add Stock to CAPS Watchlist

All Players

68 Outperform
3 Underperform
 

All-Star Players

15 Outperform
1 Underperform
 

Wall Street

1 Outperform
1 Underperform
 

Top XLS Bull/Bear Pitches

The best Bull and Bear pitches based on recency and number of recommendations.

somrh (88.63)
Submitted January 04, 2012

While I initially thought this one was very cheap, I'm now of the opinion that it's at best fairly priced. Initially the company reported that it would be taken on a pension fund which was underfunded by $1.2B. These numbers are from ITT's 2010 10-K.… More

Top Bear Pitch

There are no pitches that meet the Top Bear criteria. Explain

If this upsets you, start recommending pitches below!

XLS VS S&P 500 (SPY)

XLS Summary

Fools bullish on XLS are also bullish on:

Recent Community Commentary

Read the most recent pitches from players about XLS.

Recs

0
Member Avatar Silver1956 (< 20) Submitted: 7/17/2013 12:59:47 AM : Outperform Start Price: $13.76 XLS Score: +26.96

I would think this is a 10,000 dollar investment 07/16/2013

Recs

4
Member Avatar somrh (88.63) Submitted: 1/4/2012 12:39:47 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.24 XLS Score: +95.88

While I initially thought this one was very cheap, I'm now of the opinion that it's at best fairly priced.

Initially the company reported that it would be taken on a pension fund which was underfunded by $1.2B. These numbers are from ITT's 2010 10-K. A look at XLS's 3Q 10-Q shows that the underfunded status is now $2.15B. The reasons for the change were (1) declining asset prices and (2) changes to the actuarial assumptions.

The actuarial assumptions, as far as I can tell, have not yet been disclosed. As of ITT's Dec 2010 10-K, the assumptions were about 6% for the discount rate and 9% for expected rate of return.

XLS claims that their pension fund assumptions are "conservative". Maybe they are now as of the change (again, I haven't seen the numbers), but the previous assumptions are hardly conservative. In an environment with low interest rates and overpriced stocks, I can't imagine their pension fund getting 9% returns. If they do, I'll congratulate them.

Initially they claimed that they would be funding the $1.2B (now $2.15B) over the course of 4 years with about $200-300M per year. Either they will have to up that number or they will have to extend the number of years required to catch up the pension fund.

In the meantime there is concern that the S&P 500 could drop further in value. If you haven't read Jeremy Grantham's recent newsletter it is worth the read. If he turns out right, we could see another 30-40% price drop.

What that would mean for XLS is that their previously $1.2B underfunded pension, now $2.15B underfunded pension, could potentially be in excess of $3B. They won't be funding that in four years.

Given that and potential for declining revenues in the defense industry as the US government attempts to cut spending (I laughed too), this could put a damper on cash earnings over the next few years.

On the plus side XLS pays a nice quarterly dividend and the recent CEO purchase may help keep a floor to the price.

I'm going to maintain my outperform for amusement and because it may very well do so (I think the S&P 500 is overpriced too so outperforming an overpriced stock may still beat the market). But I'm not convinced this stock is dirt cheap as many others do.

Recs

0
Member Avatar harleytodd (89.16) Submitted: 12/13/2011 7:58:16 PM : Outperform Start Price: $7.67 XLS Score: +112.76

ITT defense & IT biz spinoff. $6B rev with $2B mkt cap = cheap. PE is 4 vs industry PE of 20. 4.5% yield. The market regularly undervalues spinoffs for a period of time so buy it now!

Leaderboard

Find the members with the highest scoring picks in XLS.

Score Leader

sandvig

sandvig (98.85) Score: +130.22

The Score Leader is the player with the highest score across all their picks in XLS.

Top
Pick
Member Name Member
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
Score Commentary
harleytodd 89.16 12/14/2011 Outperform 1Y $7.67 +221.72% +108.97% +112.76 1 Comment
JohnGabriel 59.46 12/21/2011 Outperform 5Y $7.84 +214.66% +107.54% +107.12 0 Comment
PebbledShore 72.26 7/27/2012 Outperform 5Y $8.51 +189.86% +87.09% +102.77 0 Comment
jonesscr 27.30 12/22/2011 Outperform NS $8.06 +205.85% +105.50% +100.35 0 Comment
somrh 88.63 12/23/2011 Outperform 5Y $8.24 +199.13% +103.25% +95.88 2 Comments
MisterCHW 99.92 1/5/2012 Outperform 5Y $8.38 +194.29% +100.20% +94.10 0 Comment
BringUs 51.63 1/31/2012 Outperform 5Y $8.81 +179.81% +95.03% +84.78 0 Comment
rashaman 66.17 1/17/2012 4/19/2017 Outperform NS $8.80 +180.39% +96.89% +83.50 0 Comment
chinem0 52.61 1/25/2012 Outperform 1Y $8.88 +177.81% +95.21% +82.61 0 Comment
kbhermosa 76.90 1/31/2012 Outperform 5Y $8.95 +175.57% +93.99% +81.58 0 Comment

Wall Street

See what the Wall Street professionals think, according to their public statements and filings.

Player Name Player
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
S&P
Gain
Score End Date Commentary
TrackJimCramer 84.93 5/12/2015 Underperform 3W $24.28 +1.57% +21.97% +20.39 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 84.93 9/28/2012 Outperform 3W $9.66 +152.42% +45.85% +106.57 5/12/2015 @ $24.38 0 Comment
TrackPoisedTo < 20 12/16/2011 Outperform 5Y $7.60 +224.39% +109.53% +114.86 0 Comment

Featured Broker Partners