Intrexon (NYSE:XON)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

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Member Avatar TSIF (99.95) Submitted: 4/27/2016 9:16:03 AM : Outperform Start Price: $27.46 XON Score: -6.25

Speculative, but at an attractive speculative level...(if that makes any sense it shouldn't).

Short seller attack. (8 part paper promised, part 1 issued and partially refuted). Points in this paper do not appear to cover any new ground and is (as usual) speculative with some points un-substantiated, (i.e. why the COO leaves at this time).
Said not to manage to productize anything, despite touted pipeline, but has raised cash to acquire products, which can have a questionable return. Strong channel partners.
Good revenue growth initially, currently flat lined.

"Synthetic Biology" has shown great promise with minimal results.
Bioengineering "nature" is not favorable and brings out the activists.
Bioengineering male mosquitos to minimize ZIKA has promise and I expect some countries hardest hit to implement.

I don't quite agree with the analysis that eradicating this type of mosquito is environmentally neutral.
Cash position 2+

Speculative...will pop at some point on "news", but may not sustain it while the clouds hang low...so may not match/beat S&P from this entry to a pop.

Target: Watching...

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Member Avatar clangmead (41.85) Submitted: 4/26/2016 6:27:41 AM : Outperform Start Price: $27.53 XON Score: -5.86

mtsi

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Member Avatar TMFBlacknGold (94.66) Submitted: 4/12/2016 11:37:17 AM : Outperform Start Price: $29.50 XON Score: -12.88

It's difficult to bet against Intrexon. The engineered biology leader started out talking some big game, but I have to admit, it has backed it up with ample execution. Revenue growth is up and to the right every quarter (this trend started at the IPO and ended in 4Q15, but the revenue was still very impressive). Top talent from around the field routinely joins the company. Management actually cares about and understands the importance of non-market strategy, which is especially important in engineered biology. It has ample cash and access to capital. And some big growth projects with blockbuster products across chemicals, energy, and health care are in the pipeline.

Intrexon is heavily weighted towards health care and therapeutic applications of its technology platform, but that takes a lot of time, money, and time. So, management has gobbled up market-ready products through acquisitions that can bring revenue (and hopefully cash) in before the health care vision pans out. That includes TransOva (cattle breeding and genomics platform), AquaBounty Salmon (the aquaculture platform extends to other seafood), Oxitec vector-control insects (mosquitoes, agriculture pests), Arctic Apples (and other fruits), BioPop (consumer products / art), and others.

This is an excellent strategy in both the near- and long-term.

In the near-term, Intrexon can take market-ready products and platforms that have trouble scaling on their own, use its capital reserves to grow them more rapidly or commercialize them outright, and generate product and services revenue today. This will help to keep investors happy, expand its position as a market leader, and spread its core technologies to a host of industries. It's worked beautifully with cattle breeding, and I expect it will work with Oxitec's vector control insects once regulatory approvals are granted more widely (hello, Zika virus).

In the long-term, some of the big health care bets are likely to not pan out. That's reality. But when those failures occur, Intrexon will have plenty of other product revenue growth to point to and soothe investors, which will insulate against volatility from any single clinical trial failure. Sure, the stock price will likely take a hit when that occurs, but Intrexon's success isn't tied to any single industry or platform or effort.

Think about that. Because this isn't a binary success story (good trial = win, bad trial = lose), the effect of the winners will have a bigger magnitude than the losers. It's a non-zero sum scenario that bodes very well for long-term investors, especially at a sub-$4 billion market cap at the time of this writing.

The risks are plenty, too, of course. I think the biggest is the abundance of complexity in some parts of the business. This keeps investors from understanding the platform, the potential rewards, and the potential risks more fully. As we've seen with SunEdison and Valeant, complexity can end up at a $0 market cap pretty quickly. That's an extreme consequence of complexity, and I don't think Intrexon is cheating anyone, but complexity certainly has its drawbacks.

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Member Avatar tron3 (< 20) Submitted: 3/29/2016 11:07:53 AM : Outperform Start Price: $33.76 XON Score: -25.83

zika virus

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Member Avatar lg7691 (< 20) Submitted: 3/17/2016 7:33:51 PM : Outperform Start Price: $35.64 XON Score: -29.18

immune system drug

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Member Avatar CMFMLove (< 20) Submitted: 3/5/2016 9:38:07 AM : Outperform Start Price: $38.04 XON Score: -36.11

Genetically modified mosquitoes.

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Member Avatar eksummers620 (67.67) Submitted: 1/31/2016 3:21:14 AM : Outperform Start Price: $30.29 XON Score: -22.67

zeka virus play

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Member Avatar teachersam (< 20) Submitted: 1/19/2016 11:06:37 AM : Outperform Start Price: $25.71 XON Score: -10.02

It is the largest publicly traded company in the the potential game changing field of synthetic biology that has the potential to offer enormous profits to Intrexon. Kirk owns nearly half the company and is the only one I know who became a billionaire through the sale of 2 of the biotech companies he ran before. A couple analysts described Intrexon as the apple or amazon of years ago that are now up at least 50 fold. I wouldnt be surprised if this traded near $100 in a few years but it may be a wild ride until then. I sold 8 deep in the money cash secured puts to try to acquire shares at about $24.

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Member Avatar rivahrat (70.09) Submitted: 11/30/2015 12:45:19 AM : Outperform Start Price: $36.83 XON Score: -28.81

Outstanding CEO and big payoff research.

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Member Avatar erich69 (< 20) Submitted: 5/5/2015 10:47:47 PM : Outperform Start Price: $21.90 XON Score: +8.75

It's innovative, diversified, and led by a visionary CEO

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Member Avatar ponyman1331 (31.08) Submitted: 3/10/2015 1:02:44 PM : Outperform Start Price: $47.06 XON Score: -45.77

they are ahead of the game

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Member Avatar A1phaWolf (69.94) Submitted: 2/12/2015 5:10:25 PM : Underperform Start Price: $38.99 XON Score: +32.95

This company does not have any leading class technology. Rather, it merely bandwagons onto a number of hot technologies such as industrial biotechnology, CAR-T, probably CRISP-9 in the future. Moreover, all these avenues that it pursues are far from commercialization.

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Member Avatar Kidkerner (< 20) Submitted: 2/10/2015 9:16:08 AM : Outperform Start Price: $33.38 XON Score: -23.53

Growth potential.

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Member Avatar Aurum (61.74) Submitted: 7/29/2014 12:48:17 PM : Outperform Start Price: $23.33 XON Score: +5.27

One name: Randal J. Kirk

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Member Avatar awallejr (59.36) Submitted: 5/9/2014 3:57:01 PM : Outperform Start Price: $15.71 XON Score: +52.55

oversold

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Member Avatar LaFemmeFool (26.08) Submitted: 3/13/2014 4:02:28 PM : Outperform Start Price: $28.50 XON Score: -21.86

insider buying + good stock

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Member Avatar bradrimm (< 20) Submitted: 3/1/2014 2:23:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $25.40 XON Score: -11.06

Interesting speccy

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Member Avatar loangolfer (< 20) Submitted: 2/20/2014 5:45:49 PM : Outperform Start Price: $26.11 XON Score: -13.89

Bio what ever is the new tech! Go nerds

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Member Avatar Puckplayr4 (72.04) Submitted: 2/14/2014 2:12:45 PM : Outperform Start Price: $27.24 XON Score: -18.09

There will come a day when we suddenly need lots of stem cells. That day is tomorrow. (or maybe the day after).

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Member Avatar Winnerfrommidlan (43.51) Submitted: 1/31/2014 5:30:21 PM : Outperform Start Price: $33.15 XON Score: -38.63

Intrexon has innovative gene technology that is winning joint ventures in drugs,food, and agriculture. They just signed up a biggie, Johnson and Johnson.

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