Zafgen (NASDAQ:ZFGN)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

ZFGN News and Commentary

Caps

How do you think ZFGN will perform against the market?

Add Stock to CAPS Watchlist

All Players

27 Outperform
3 Underperform
 

All-Star Players

5 Outperform
3 Underperform
 

Wall Street

2 Outperform
0 Underperform
 

Top ZFGN Bull/Bear Pitches

The best Bull and Bear pitches based on recency and number of recommendations.

shanelofgren (< 20)
Submitted July 21, 2016

So ZFGN is an interesting company. From a crude valuation perspective it is a steal. Its net cash 3 months ago was ~150 million. It was burning around 20 million a quarter, so put that around ~125 million now. Yet its market cap is down to ~40… More

zzlangerhans (99.84)
Submitted October 14, 2015

Zafgen is the stock currently making biotech traders question their attraction to the sector. After enjoying a run up as high as 46 on anticipation of data from the ZAF-203 and bestPWS trials of belanorib in early 2016, the stock dropped to the low… More

ZFGN VS S&P 500 (SPY)

Fools bullish on ZFGN are also bullish on:

Recent Community Commentary

Read the most recent pitches from players about ZFGN.

Recs

1
Member Avatar shanelofgren (< 20) Submitted: 7/21/2016 3:10:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.93 ZFGN Score: +7.53

So ZFGN is an interesting company. From a crude valuation perspective it is a steal. Its net cash 3 months ago was ~150 million. It was burning around 20 million a quarter, so put that around ~125 million now. Yet its market cap is down to ~40 million. So that's a huge discount, just to cash. So standard NPV valuation says buy.

Now, the bear case, that I think is reasonable, is that unless the company plans to return that cash to shareholders, it's still no use to us. If they are committed to dumping it in the ocean for instance then the actual value is 0.

So the question is: will the management make good use of its cash? The market seems to think no.

I am much more inclined to say yes. First off, it has a reasonable preclinical candidate. There are of course huge risks with it, but that's every preclinical candidate. It's target has some more validation, but there are concerns about severe safety risks. Are those safety issues driven by on target effects? If so then the drug will fail just like Bel. Are they not? Then the drug could have a very fast track to being something very profitable. That's drug development. I'd say that this preclinical compound has just as much of a chance, if not more chance, of being a market product with great sales as the preclinical products of another company. And we know that the company has the cash to move it forward.

So that's my main reason for being bullish. I'd probably value this one at cash plus, maybe, 10 or 20% more, depending on the probabilities and peak sales etc. for ZGN-1061. That's closer to $7 a share.

My final reason for being bullish on this stock is that it has Bruce Booth, author of the popular lifescivc blog, on its board. He is a frequent proponent of capital discipline, so I'm inclined to think that 125 million in cash in his hands is worth at least 125 million. Certainly more than the 40 million that the market is now valuing it at.

Recs

0
Member Avatar LifeScientist (< 20) Submitted: 3/1/2016 3:15:10 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.43 ZFGN Score: -73.30

good buy technically at about 5.60, no more

Recs

0
Member Avatar oscillation (75.36) Submitted: 12/16/2015 1:00:57 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.25 ZFGN Score: -66.78

nev

Leaderboard

Find the members with the highest scoring picks in ZFGN.

Score Leader

acekeldog

acekeldog (99.60) Score: +221.50

The Score Leader is the player with the highest score across all their picks in ZFGN.

Top
Pick
Member Name Member
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
Score Commentary
MMCapitalMgmt 99.91 7/9/2014 Underperform 5Y $18.77 -80.02% +32.49% +112.52 0 Comment
shanelofgren < 20 7/21/2016 Outperform 5Y $2.93 +28.21% +20.67% +7.53 1 Comment
Under5 < 20 6/1/2017 Outperform 5Y $3.40 +10.29% +7.64% +2.65 0 Comment
acekeldog 99.60 10/4/2017 Underperform 3M $3.54 +5.93% +2.81% -3.13 0 Comment
This player feels very strongly about this pick and has marked it a Top Pick. Top Picks do not affect a player’s score. DeathStock 95.63 7/20/2016 Outperform 5Y $3.25 +15.38% +19.97% -4.59 0 Comment
chammond55 97.10 8/29/2016 Underperform 5Y $3.02 +24.17% +19.38% -4.80 0 Comment
user1029384756 < 20 2/6/2017 Outperform 5Y $4.21 -10.93% +13.80% -24.73 0 Comment
oscillation 75.36 12/15/2015 Outperform 5Y $6.25 -40.00% +26.78% -66.78 1 Comment
t0bes < 20 4/13/2016 Outperform 5Y $6.59 -43.10% +25.82% -68.92 0 Comment
losingtoday 96.37 5/13/2016 Outperform 5Y $6.60 -43.18% +27.29% -70.47 0 Comment

Wall Street

See what the Wall Street professionals think, according to their public statements and filings.

Player Name Player
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
S&P
Gain
Score End Date Commentary
TrackFBRCapitalM 90.50 1/21/2016 Outperform NS $11.89 -68.46% +39.87% -108.33 0 Comment
TrackCanaccord 41.06 8/13/2014 Outperform NS $17.84 -78.98% +34.05% -113.03 0 Comment

Featured Broker Partners