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O.T. MH370 Conspiracy Theory (They Know Where it is)

March 21, 2014 – Comments (9)

Let me start by stating I'm not a conspiracy buff; I think they found the remains of a weather balloon at Roswell, Oswald was a nut and killed Kennedy all by himself, Elvis is dead and Obama was born in Hawaii. I don't present my MH370 conspiracy lightly, however I think the implications of what we haven't been told but can figure out on our own, suggest investigators have to know where the plane is (but don't want the bad guys to know we know). The crux of my case comes down to my firm belief that anyone using high school geometry could plot the flight path and final destination of MH370 from the circles corresponding to possible places on earth that the plane could have been at each of the 7 satellite pings. The two big arcs that the media keeps mistaking for flight paths are just parts of one circle out of 7 as can be seen on the map in the middle of the story linked below.  [more]



Is there anybody out there?

November 27, 2013 – Comments (1)

HBIO spun off it's HART unit a couple of weeks ago and I've used the contact feature on CAPS a couple of times since to alert them that it doesn't look like they've adjusted for this yet. It still doesn't appear to have been adjusted and I haven't heard anything from CAPS staff. They usually respond in a day or two. Did TMF officially orphan CAPS and I missed the announcement? Maybe 6 months ago or so there was a TMF staff member who posted about his own efforts working on a potential upgrade of CAPS to make it more relevant to investors. Did anything ever become of his efforts? I've put a lot of time into my CAPS portfolio and love the service. I'm hoping this isn't the beginning of the end of the service.  [more]



Trading vs Investing

October 01, 2013 – Comments (2)

For the most part I try to stick to investing in companies that are undervalued. Once in a while I toy with the idea of trying to take advantage of a short term event that seems like it has a high probability of happening. I usually talk myself out of it; vacillating back and forth about potential outcomes. It didn't even occur to me to try to game a government shutdown however the aftermath so far confirms for me the futility of trying to out guess everyone else and the value of just trying to buy companies when they're cheap.  [more]



Home Builder Valuations

September 24, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: LEN

While I was hunting around for something interesting to read on the internet yesterday or the day before I came across a M.F. video report that included a segment warning about home builder bulls potentially missing something in the basic selling point for the sector. The long term 50+ year average of home starts/ year in the U.S. is ~1.5M. We were at record low levels of ~0.5M/ year for several years until a big bounce back to ~0.9M/ year pace currently. The basic home builder bull case is that we still have 50% upside in home starts just to get back to the long term historical average (and home formation demand). The point the analyst in the video made was that while this is true home builder valuations may already be pricing this in. They cited some sort of analysis or report that sounded to me like a comparison of historical PE's for home builders to their current PE's noting right now they are beyond their historic levels.   [more]

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