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The Wax Report - Week Ending 04/29/2016

April 30, 2016 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CALM , HES , PSX

The Wax Ink Portfolio was down 0.6% for the week.

By comparison, the Dow was down 1.3%, the Nasdaq was down 2.7%, the S&P 500 was down 1.3%, the Russell 2000 was down 1.4%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was up 18.8%.

Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is down 7.6%, the Dow is up 2.0%, the Nasdaq is down 4.6%, the S&P 500 is up 1.0%, the Russell 2000 is down 0.4%, and the VIX is lower by 13.8%.

The portfolio breakdown remains roughly 60% cash, 40% equities, and 0% bonds.

Baseline Valuation Estimates
Baseline Valuation Estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance or investing philosophy.

Financial data used in the creation of each Baseline Valuation Estimate is the most recent company ANNUAL financial information as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The average baseline valuation estimate of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $34.08. For the current week ending, the average market valuation of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio was $30.57, making the current portfolio growth factor 10.31%.

Fair Warning
There was no change to the number of shares held in the portfolio during the prior week.

Hydrocarbon Prices
I have started to include the Crude Spread (Brent Crude less WTI Crude) as well as the Gulf Coast Crack Spread (two barrels of gasoline + one barrel of heating oil – three barrels of crude oil) / 3) in my weekly performance reports and just wanted folks to understand what it is that I am talking about.

WTI Crude ended the week at $45.92, up 5.0%, while Brent Crude ended the week at $47.37, up 5.0%, creating a crude price spread of $1.45, an increase of 5.1% for the week. Distillate RBOB Gasoline ended the week at $1.6044, up 4.8%, and Heating Oil ended the week at $1.3860, up 5.9%, moving the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread to $19.02, up 5.4% for the week. Natural Gas ended the week at $2.18, up 1.9%.

Year to date WTI Crude is higher by 24.0%, Brent Crude is higher by 27.1%, Natural Gas is lower by 6.8%, RBOB Gasoline is higher by 26.2%, Heating Oil is higher by 23.0%, and the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread is higher by 26.3%.

Treasury and Bond Yields
The 5 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.27, down 5.2%, while the 10 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.81, down 3.2%. The 5 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 0.79, up 2.6%, and the 10 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 1.45, up 23.9%. Lastly, the 5 Year AAA Corporate closed the week at 1.21, down 6.2%, with the 10 Year AAA Corporate ending the week up 2.2% at 2.31.

Year to date the 5 Year Treasury is down 27.0%, the 10 Year Treasury is down 19.6%, the 5 Year AAA Muni is down 36.3%, the 10 year AAA Muni is down 32.2%, the 5 Year AAA Corporate is down 36.3%, and the 10 Year AAA Corporate is down 20.9%.

Baseline Valuation Worksheets
Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.

Worksheets were either created or updated last week for the following companies. Please note that worksheets are updated or created basis the most current SEC 10-K ANNUAL filing.

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (Nasdaq: CALM) - FYE 05/2015

Kaman Corporation (Nasdaq: KAMN) - FYE 12/2015

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) - FYE 12/2015

Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) - FYE 12/2015

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) - FYE 12/2015

Estimate Revisions and Additions
Baseline value estimates were either created or revised this week for Cal-Maine ($46-$54), Kaman Corporation ($37-$42), Valero Energy ($98-$112), Hess Corporation ($68-$69), and Phillips 66 ($69-$74).

Have a great week.

Wax

Wax Ink is a baseline equity valuation company not licensed or registered with any government agency
Copyright © 2016 Wax Ink  [more]

Recs

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The Wax Report - Week Ending 04/22/2016

April 23, 2016 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CSH , LEA , HD

The Wax Ink Portfolio was up 1.8% for the week.

By comparison, the Dow was up 0.1%, the Nasdaq was down 0.6%, the S&P 500 was up 0.5%, the Russell 2000 was up 1.4%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was down 2.9%.

Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is down 7.1%, the Dow is up 3.3%, the Nasdaq is down 2.0%, the S&P 500 is up 2.3%, the Russell 2000 is up 1.0%, and the VIX is lower by 27.4%.

The portfolio breakdown remains roughly 58% cash, 42% equities, and 0% bonds.

Baseline Valuation Estimates
Baseline Valuation Estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance or investing philosophy.

Financial data used in the creation of each Baseline Valuation Estimate is the most recent company ANNUAL financial information as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The average baseline valuation estimate of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $34.08. For the current week ending, the average market valuation of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $31.02, making the current value spread (8.98%).

Fair Warning
There was no change to the number of portfolio during the prior week.

Hydrocarbon Prices
I have started to include the Crude Spread (Brent Crude less WTI Crude) as well as the Gulf Coast Crack Spread (two barrels of gasoline + one barrel of heating oil – three barrels of crude oil) / 3) in my weekly performance reports and just wanted folks to understand what it is that I am talking about.

WTI Crude ended the week at $43.73, up 8.3%, while Brent Crude ended the week at $45.11, up 4.7%, creating a crude price spread of $1.38, an decrease of 49.6% for the week. On the other side of the floor Natural Gas ended the week at $2.4, up 12.6%, RBOB Gasoline ended the week at $1.5309, up 4.8%, and Heating Oil ended the week at $1.3089, up 5.9%. This adjusted the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread to $18.04, down 2.0% for the week.

Year to date WTI Crude is higher by 18.1%, Brent Crude is higher by 21.0%, Natural Gas is lower by 8.5%, RBOB Gasoline is higher by 20.4%, Heating Oil is higher by 16.2%, and the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread is higher by 19.8%.

Treasury and Bond Yields
The 5 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.34, up 12.6%, while the 10 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.87, up 21.4%. The 5 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 0.77, up 1.3%, and the 10 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 1.17, up 4.5%. Lastly, the 5 Year AAA Corporate closed the week at 1.29, up 9.3%, with the 10 Year AAA Corporate ending the week up 1.3% at 2.26.

Year to date the 5 Year Treasury is down 23.0%, the 10 Year Treasury is down 16.9%, the 5 Year AAA Muni is down 37.9%, the 10 year AAA Muni is down 45.3%, the 5 Year AAA Corporate is down 32.1%, and the 10 Year AAA Corporate is down 22.6%.

Baseline Valuation Worksheets
Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.

Worksheets were either created or updated last week for the following companies. Please note that worksheets are updated or created basis the most current SEC 10-K ANNUAL filing.

Cash America International, Inc. (NYSE: CSH) - FYE 12/2015

Lear Corporation (NYSE: LEA) - FYE 12/2015

Layne Christensen Company, Inc. (Nasdaq: LAYN) - FYE 01/2016

Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance, Inc. (Nasdaq: ULTA) - FYE 01/2016

The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) - FYE 01/2016

Estimate Revisions and Additions
Baseline value estimates were either created or revised this week for Cash America ($52-$62), Lear Corporation ($86-$90), Layne Christensen ($3-$3), Ulta Salon ($62-$73), and Home Depot ($64-$66).

Have a great week.

Wax

Wax Ink is a baseline equity valuation company not licensed or registered with any government agency
Copyright © 2016 Wax Ink  [more]

Recs

1

The Wax Report - 04/15/2016

April 16, 2016 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: HOG , SNA , CF

Performance - Week Ending 04/15/2016
The Wax Ink Portfolio was up 1.3% for the week.

By comparison, the Dow was up 2.3%, the Nasdaq was up 1.8%, the S&P 500 was up 1.6%, the Russell 2000 was up 3.4%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was down 11.3%.

Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is down 8.8%, the Dow is up 3.2%, the Nasdaq is down 1.4%, the S&P 500 is up 1.8%, the Russell 2000 is down 0.4%, and the VIX is lower by 25.2%.

The portfolio breakdown remains roughly 58% cash, 42% equities, and 0% bonds.

Baseline Valuation Estimates
Baseline Valuation Estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance or investing philosophy.

Financial data used in the creation of each Baseline Valuation Estimate is the most recent company ANNUAL financial information as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The average baseline valuation estimate of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $34.33. For the current week ending, the average market valuation of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $29.91, making the current value spread (12.90%).

Fair Warning
I have started to include the Crude Spread (Brent Crude less WTI Crude) as well as the Gulf Coast Crack Spread (two barrels of gasoline + one barrel of heating oil – three barrels of crude oil) / 3) in my weekly performance reports and just wanted folks to understand what it is that I am talking about.

Hydrocarbon Prices
WTI Crude ended the week at $40.36, up 1.6%, while Brent Crude ended the week at $43.10, up 2.8%, creating a crude price spread of $2.72, an increase of 23.4% for the week. On the other side of the floor Natural Gas ended the week at $1.90, down 4.5%, RBOB Gasoline ended the week at $1.4612, down 0.2%, and Heating Oil ended the week at $1.2357, down 10.3%. This adjusted the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread to $18.40, up 5.4% for the week.

Year to date WTI Crude is higher by 9.0%, Brent Crude is higher by 15.6%, Natural Gas is lower by 18.8%, RBOB Gasoline is higher by 15.0%, Heating Oil is higher by 9.7%, and the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread is higher by 22.2%.

Treasury and Bond Yields
The 5 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.19, up 5.3%, while the 10 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.54, down 9.4%. The 5 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 0.76, up 1.3%, and the 10 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 1.12, down 6.7%. Lastly, the 5 Year AAA Corporate closed the week at 1.18, up 0.9%, with the 10 Year AAA Corporate ending the week unchanged at 2.23.

Year to date the 5 Year Treasury is down 31.6%, the 10 Year Treasury is down 31.6%, the 5 Year AAA Muni is down 38.7%, the 10 year AAA Muni is down 47.7%, the 5 Year AAA Corporate is down 37.9%, and the 10 Year AAA Corporate is down 23.6%.

Baseline Valuation Worksheets
Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.

Worksheets were either created or updated last week for the following companies. Please note that worksheets are updated or created basis the most current SEC 10-K ANNUAL filing.

Lakeland Industries, Inc. (Nasdaq: LAKE) - FYE 01/2015

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) - FYE 12/2015

Dorman Products, Inc. (Nasdaq: DORM) - FYE 12/2015

Snap-On, Inc. (NYSE: SNA) - FYE 12/2015

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) - FYE 12/2015

Estimate Revisions and Additions
Baseline value estimates were either created or revised this week for Lakeland Industries ($31-$52), CF Industries ($16-$20), Dorman Products ($47-$55), Snap-On ($84-$91), and Harley-Davidson ($42-$46).

Have a great week.

Wax

Wax Ink is a baseline equity valuation company not licensed or registered with any government agency
Copyright © 2016 Wax Ink  [more]

Recs

1

Performance - Week Ending 04/08/2016

April 09, 2016 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: PHI , WIRE , FAST

The Wax Ink Portfolio was down 0.2% for the week.

By comparison, the Dow was down 1.2%, the Nasdaq was down 1.3%, the S&P 500 was down 1.2%, the Russell 2000 was down 2.1%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was up 17.3%.

Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is down 10%, the Dow is up 0.9%, the Nasdaq is down 3.1%, the S&P 500 is up 0.2%, the Russell 2000 is down 3.7%, and the VIX is lower by 15.7%.

The portfolio breakdown remains roughly 58% cash, 42% equities, and 0% bonds.

Baseline Valuation Estimates
Baseline Valuation Estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance or investing philosophy.

Financial data used in the creation of each Baseline Valuation Estimate is the most recent company ANNUAL financial information as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The average baseline valuation estimate of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $34.33. For the current week ending, the average market valuation of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $29.58, making the current value spread (13.86%).

Fair Warning
I have started to include the Crude Spread (Brent Crude less WTI Crude) as well as the Gulf Coast Crack Spread (two barrels of gasoline + one barrel of heating oil – three barrels of crude oil) / 3) in my weekly performance reports and just wanted folks to understand what it is that I am talking about.

Since many of the companies on my watch list (there are 1951 of them) have their fiscal years ending in December, the latter part of February and all of March can get pretty hectic for me as I work through reviewing these filings and updating baseline valuation estimates for these companies.

With the current market volatility, I hope to be able to find several companies that I can add to the portfolio, putting some of my cash to work.

Hydrocarbon Prices
WTI Crude ended the week at $39.72, up 8%, while Brent Crude ended the week at $41.94, up 8.5%, creating a crude price spread of $2.22, an increase of 18.1% for the week. On the other side of the floor Natural Gas ended the week at $1.99, up 3.1%, RBOB Gasoline ended the week at $1.4637, up 4.4%, and Heating Oil ended the week at $1.112, down 1.0%. This adjusted the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread to $17.46, down 7.2% for the week.

Year to date WTI Crude is higher by 7.2%, Brent Crude is higher by 12.5%, Natural Gas is lower by 15%, RBOB Gasoline is higher by 15.2%, Heating Oil is lower by 0.6%, and the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread is higher by 16.0%.

Treasury and Bond Yields
The 5 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.13, down 5%, while the 10 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.70, down 2.9%. The 5 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 0.75, down 11.8%, and the 10 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 1.20, down 16.1%. Lastly, the 5 Year AAA Corporate closed the week at 1.17, down 2.5%, with the 10 Year AAA Corporate ending the week at 2.23, down 3.5%.

Year to date the 5 Year Treasury is down 35.1%, the 10 Year Treasury is down 24.4%, the 5 Year AAA Muni is down 39.5%, the 10 year AAA Muni is down 43.9%, the 5 Year AAA Corporate is down 38.4%, and the 10 Year AAA Corporate is down 23.6%.

Baseline Valuation Worksheets
Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.

Worksheets were either created or updated last week for the following companies. Please note that worksheets are updated or created basis the most current SEC 10-K ANNUAL filing.

Parker Hannifin Corporation (NYSE: PHI) - FYE 06/2015

Encore Wire Corporation (Nasdaq: WIRE) - FYE 12/2015

Fastenal Company, Inc. (Nasdaq: FAST) - FYE 12/2015

Estimate Revisions and Additions
Baseline value estimates were either created or revised this week for Parker Hannifin ($71-$71), Encore Wire ($43-$53), and Fastenal ($34-$43).

Have a great week.

Wax

Wax Ink is a baseline equity valuation company not licensed or registered with any government agency
Copyright © 2016 Wax Ink  [more]

Recs

1

Performance - Week Ending 04/02/2016

April 02, 2016 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: UTX , CAT , HII

The Wax Ink Portfolio was up 0.6% for the week.

By comparison, the Dow was up 1.6%, the Nasdaq was up 3.0%, the S&P 500 was up 1.8%, the Russell 2000 was up 3.5%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was down 11.1%.

Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is down 9.8%, the Dow is up 2.1%, the Nasdaq is down 1.8%, the S&P 500 is up 1.4%, the Russell 2000 is down 1.6%, and the VIX is lower by 28.1%.

The portfolio breakdown remains roughly 58% cash, 42% equities, and 0% bonds.

Baseline Valuation Estimates
Baseline Valuation Estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance or investing philosophy.

Financial data used in the creation of each Baseline Valuation Estimate is the most recent company ANNUAL financial information as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The average baseline valuation estimate of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $34.33. For the current week ending, the average market valuation of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $29.76, making the current value spread (13.33%).

Fair Warning
I have started to include the Crude Spread (Brent Crude less WTI Crude) as well as the Gulf Coast Crack Spread (two barrels of gasoline + one barrel of heating oil – three barrels of crude oil) / 3) in my weekly market reports and just wanted folks to understand what it is that I am talking about.

Since many of the companies on my watch list (there are 1951 of them) have their fiscal years ending in December, the latter part of February and all of March can get pretty hectic for me as I work through reviewing these filings and updating baseline valuation estimates for these companies.

With the current market volatility, I hope to be able to find several companies that I can add to the portfolio, putting some of my cash to work.

Hydrocarbon Prices
WTI Crude ended the week at $39.79, down 6.8%, while Brent Crude ended the week at $38.67, down 4.4%, creating a crude price spread of $1.88, an increase of 91.8% for the week. On the other side of the floor Natural Gas ended the week at $1.96, up 8.3%, RBOB Gasoline ended the week at $1.4016, down 4.4%, and Heating Oil ended the week at $1.137, down 5.5%. This adjusted the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread to $18.81, down 4.8% for the week.

Year to date WTI Crude is down 0.7%, Brent Crude is up 3.7%, Natural Gas is down 16.2%, RBOB Gasoline is up 10.3%, Heating Oil is up 0.5%, and the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread is up 24.9%.

Treasury and Bond Yields
The 5 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.19, down 12.5%, while the 10 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.75, down 6.9%. The 5 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 0.85, down 6.6%, and the 10 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 1.43, down 19.7%. Lastly, the 5 Year AAA Corporate closed the week at 1.20, down 21.6%, with the 10 Year AAA Corporate ending the week at 2.31, down 8.0%.

Year to date the 5 Year Treasury is down 31.6%, the 10 Year Treasury is down 22.2%, the 5 Year AAA Muni is down 31.5%, the 10 year AAA Muni is down 33.2%, the 5 Year AAA Corporate is down 36.8%, and the 10 Year AAA Corporate is down 20.9%.

Baseline Valuation Worksheets
Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.

Worksheets were either created or updated last week for the following companies. Please note that worksheets are updated or created basis the most current SEC 10-K ANNUAL filing.

United Technologies Corporation (NYSE: UTX) - FYE 12/2015

Danaher Corporation (NYSE: DHR) - FYE 12/2015

Spectrum Energy Corporation (NYSE: SE) - FYE 12/2015

Lydall, Inc. (NYSE: LDL) - FYE 12/2015

Caterpillar, Inc. (NYSE: CAT) - FYE 12/2015

Lydall, Inc. (NYSE: LDL) - FYE 12/2015

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (NYSE: HII) - FYE 12/2015

Estimate Revisions and Additions
Baseline value estimates were either created or revised this week for United Technologies ($47-$61), 3M ($64-$92), Danaher Corporation ($43-$50), Spectrum Energy ($19-$25), Lydall ($36-$45), Caterpillar ($43-$51), and Huntington Ingalls ($73-$77).


Have a great week.

Wax

Wax Ink is a baseline equity valuation company not licensed or registered with any government agency
Copyright © 2016 Wax Ink  [more]

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