The Business News Media is blaming our problems on one specific problem at a time, like the Fiscal Cliff or Greece or some other end-of-the-world crisis. Then when we fix or avert that crisis the market rallies in joy. But why? the problems are not Greece or the Fiscal Cliff or the deficit the problem is "the party is over."We all had our house go up a quarter million dollars over just a few years time, we spent it and now the houses are down a quarter million.We don't have the rich man's cash anymore.So be glad there are other things to blame it on or the market would only head in one direction, and it's not up. [more]
Every recession in my lifetime has been quickly followed by an improved economy with the Dow climbing to new record heights. I got to the point were I said “why does everyone sell their stocks when they know next year it will bounce back?” [more]
Remember last September? How the little country of Greece was going to destroy the entire world economy. The fear was so high the stock maker tumbled for months all the way into Sept of 2011. My retail store had one of it's worst sales of the recession in September and so did many companies. This Sept in comparison is way up. It has doubled! Wow that is great. Actually it is average sales but compared to last sept it is fantastic. I feel this was not an accident, I feel that last Sept. was purposely made bad for two reasons. One; the months before Sept. the yield on the 10 yr note had gone up to 2.4%, interest rates were moving up. The fear created brought the yields down and interest rates followed. Two; The Federal reserved was not likely to do more a few months prior since we were showing improvement. With the fear that was created the central banks kicked in more money into the system, this brought down interest rates and injected more money into the world economy.Miraculously the fear subsided, coincidentally 12 months before the elections and just in time for the stock market to end the year with a 15% gain. From the low in September of 2011 to February of 2012 things were looking good again. So good that interest rates were going up again and the central banks were not likely to inject anymore money. Then, for some reason, the banks were persuaded to hold off on hiring, many government programs for the cities were suspended causing layoffs, and the bad news started again, unemployment ticked up and up. When did the bad news stop? Well when do you think? as soon as Obama got more money from the central banks. That would be, lets see about a few weeks a go. You known, when unemployment spiked back up to 8.2. He got another 40 billion a month, Germany finally made a huge change of policy and also injected huge amounts of money to the world economy.Not more then a few weeks later, and just in time for the last push for the elections unemployment slides to only 7.8%! (I had expected 7.9) Wall Stteet expected 8.3. So like a cheap date he convince the fed and other central banks to give him what he wants then, wam-bam thank you mam "thanks for putting out." So whats next? He still needs the bond market to yield as low as possible to keep the interest rates from going up too quickly. He needs a record high stock market and he needs better unemployment rate to win the election. If only he could have good news for the stock market with out the bond maker yielding higher. Hummm, well if the very best reports come out on holidays when the stock market is open and the bond market is closed he could get the market up and have 24 hours before the bonds could react. If you look at your calendar over the last 18 months you will see he has done that each and every such holiday. In that 24 hours after the market rallies but the new will mention some event that tames the bond market's ultra conservative investors.When I check the schedule , I saw that the last holiday where the bond maker is closed and the stock market is open before the elections is October 8, 2012. So if you think about this, when was the last Fed meeting and what needed to be done to get more money into the economy? How long would it take to get the stock market to a record high in time for the elections? What is the last date Obama can bring out full out good reports, so good it may even cause interest rates to go up? Now is the time Oct 8th is the date.!During the Depression of the 1920 and 1930's it was not until World War II when the central banks finally injected huge amounts of money. The war ended the recession. Obama may be manipulating the world but he is achieving what use to take a war to do. [more]
It seems that the next fed move would be to buy municipal bonds. The largest employer in many cities is the local government itself. Many cities are in drier straits and several have recently filed for bankruptcy protection. I am not very familiar with bonds but it seems that the interest payments on bonds is a stress on city and state governments. If the fed were to buy these bonds they could lower the interest rates on the bonds lowering the local governments expenses. The bonds are earmarked for projects, not for hiring civil servants or government employees, but lowering the interest rates lowers the expenses and gives more money to use elsewhere. [more]
I just want to remember that. What does it take to never make a mistake? I would never be able to do anything original. I would not advance my life or be happy with it. If I never pitch a ball I will never walk a batter, if I never invest I will never loose in the market. If never making a mistake is more important then accepting mistakes then i will never advance. I sold off in 2007. I bought ford at $1.75 in '09 I went short on gold after it's more then a decade long run and was right. I shorted the market 2 months ago and am still short. These are the risky moves that went against the thinking at those times. I also made mistakes; I think radio shack has the right business model for the new economy not Best Buy, but I have lost a lot on that since others do not agree with me.
Latter this month I will invest and ride the bumps in hope it the market makes it's way up for the elections. I believe a high market for the elections is the goal of many very important people and this latest down turn is just coiling the spring.
The mistakes hurt, but what really hurts is to be right and saying "I wish I had done something". [more]