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I'm stupid like a box of rocks...

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April 10, 2010 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: CPE , ATLS , APL

Make that two boxes.

Why? 

Take a look at the comment about my Real Life portfolio I made back in September of 2009 (which was only 7 months ago):

#20) On September 21, 2009 at 12:27 AM, dragonLZ (99.61) wrote:

I also think it's a great time to buy some of the oil/natural gas plays. My CPE buy was one of them. Will most likely get some more this week.Will probably pick one (or two) of these three: PQ (now $5.53), AHD ($4.11), APL ($7.06).

 

Now, let's take a look at the returns of these stocks since Sept. 21 when this comment was made:

CPE   price then: $2.09   Today: $7.53   Return: +260%

PQ   Price then: $5.53   Today: $5.72   Return: +3%

AHD   Price then: $4.11   Today: $6.71   Return: +63%

APL   Price then: $7.06   Today: $14.42  Return: +104%

Now, let me answer these 4 simple questions:

1. Do I still have CPE in my RL portfolio? Nope. Sold it back in Oct. at a small loss.

2. Why? Because I'm stupid.

3. Did I ever buy any of the other 3 stocks I said I'm going to buy? Nope.

4. Why? Because I'm stupid.

 

God, how I hate myself sometimes...

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 10, 2010 at 1:40 AM, dragonLZ (99.39) wrote:

Or how do you like this one:

#49) On October 12, 2009 at 10:45 PM, dragonLZ (99.61) wrote:

Today, I doubled my position in WNC.

 

Let's now take a look at WNC's return since Oct. 12 when the comment was made:

WNC   price then: $2.73   Today: $8.13   Return: +197%

Now, 3 simple questions:

1. Do I still own shares of WNC? Nope. Sold it.

2. What was the return on my investment in WNC? I'm ashamed to say it.

3. Why?  You know the answer... 

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#2) On April 10, 2010 at 2:24 AM, bluebare (32.35) wrote:

LOL.  You are not alone. This post is called Rocky II or My Stoneheadiest Investment Decision of 2009. 

After a lot of hard DD, I bought a very large lot of CAGC on the OTC BB at $1.20. I sold it a short time later at $2.20.  I thought it was a brilliant play at the time and other opportunities beckoned. CAGC was uplisted shortly after that. Today's closing price on the NASDAQ was $23.14, a mere wisp away from a 2000% increase on my original purchase price. What was it Maxwell Smart used to say on Get Smart? "Missed it by that much..." or was it the character played by in Marlon Brando in On the Waterfront saying "I coulda been a contender?" or dragonLZ at TMF who put it this way, "I'm stupid like a box a rocks."

I wish this was my only birdbrained move last year, but, you know better...

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#3) On April 10, 2010 at 3:48 AM, SuperPicks (29.00) wrote:

Free yourself from your compulsions on wanting to trade or make more picks with money.  Instead if you find something worth buying, do it, set a limit order (at a hefty gain limit) and then dont visit your portfolio for atleast a few months.  When you revisit, you might be pleasantly surprised that your limit was hit & you profited nicely. 

 

But I think being long on almost any pick today is very dangerous & your money invested in something that goes up 0% will do alot better for the next 1-2 years.  Just my opinion. 

I have this opinion because I believe aggregate worldwide credit has peaked (around 2007), and we will not see aggregate money numbers that big for the intermediate term.  Less money, lower asset prices, better to sell stocks now.

If you don't beleive me, and instead believe the opposite, then the action to take would be to buy stocks. 

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#4) On April 10, 2010 at 4:20 AM, DarkToast (43.69) wrote:

I make the same kind of impatient mistakes. I would like to think I will learn from them.

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#5) On April 10, 2010 at 11:15 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

The same thing can happen in the other direction if you hold too long, although in this market, it's less likely a rapid riser that you sit on will drop, it can happen....

Stops in a volitile market are also sometimes harmful.  A trailing stop on a large gainer, however, can be useful.  Tax implications of holding for a year are also worth considering in your calcuations.

All, in all, however, I think many of us have gotten impatient because of the volitility. IF it doesn't move TODAY by 3% or more then it's too boring and time to move to something else...!!

One secret is to sell half or a third of a position to bank profits, not necessarily the whole position. Another secret might be not to look at so many stocks and making your calls so public.  Fuzzy memory can help stem some of the pain!  :)

Good luck... 

PS, is two boxes of rocks any stupider than one box of rocks???

 

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#6) On April 10, 2010 at 12:03 PM, amassafortune (29.48) wrote:

Regretting a failure to buy and hold? I have owned HGSI continuously since like 1999. The purchase price was about $15. I knew the business model was based on long-term developments where the payoff comes when drugs pass all the hurdles and finally make it to market. The sponsoring drug company makes a boatload and HGSI gets a cut. This model is also why a takeover is not likely - a buyout would lead to canceled pipeline projects by rival companies.

Anyway, I sat on the big run-up to $109 (7-bagger in about six months). I then rode it back down below $1 for nine years until it became the star of 2009 rising from 48 cents in March to $29. I'm still holding at a decent profit, but it still needs another 300% gain to get back to its early 2000 level. Even GM may look like HGSI some day, but probably not someday soon.

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#7) On April 10, 2010 at 12:26 PM, bothisellhigher (29.01) wrote:

An excellent post on how hard it really is to make money in the stock market.  Actual real money profits.  It seems like the "for fun and games" picks, the cap picks, the "I like" picks are simple and always right on...but emotions and hunches and "fear" of losing $ constantly battle the real life picks. 

May your rocks morph into gold as your mind and plans become stronger.

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#8) On April 10, 2010 at 1:57 PM, 1277507302 wrote:

Bluebare,

You neglected to account for the 2:1 forward split a few months back ;-), so you'll have to make that 4000%. I sold @ $26.00 (pre split), quite smartly I thought, missing out on a double. To add insult to this injury I moved the equity from my ROTH IRA to a taxable account @ around $15 (you know the reason why...see original post).

My latest fiasco was selling a small Chinese metals company called CNAM because I couldn't get a handle on forward revenue projections (and was afraid of the China steel sector). The only thing I needed to understand is the stock tripled a few weeks later.

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#9) On April 10, 2010 at 5:07 PM, DarkToast (43.69) wrote:

It doesn't really help, but ignorance is bliss. Once I sell out of a position I try to not watch it anymore. I am STILL making the stupid mistakes, but not rubbing my own nose in it as much.

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